The Weekly
A loud week the markets shrugged off
Missiles flew over the Gulf and frontier AI models multiplied, yet oil slipped and markets barely flinched
The library
Everything, in one place
Every piece we’ve published, newest first. The Weekly, the macro and theme work, the stock and sector studies, reader Q&As, historical analogues, explainers and the mistakes.
187 pieces
Explainer
What the Shiller CAPE tells you about the next ten years
At 42 times earnings, the market is priced for a decade in which very little is allowed to go wrong
Theme
The machine is not conscious. That is not the reassuring part.
Anthropic has found a structure inside its own AI that it did not design and cannot fully explain. The headline went to consciousness. The part worth your attention is what it says about who is watching these systems, and whether they can keep up.
Macro
The floor under oil is going
Saudi Arabia just cut crude prices by the most in a generation — and the barrels still won't shift
The Weekly
Governments don't create growth
Inflation falls, the ECB looks worse, and chip stocks lose their minds
Global Economic OutlookQ3 / 2026
The synchronised mistake
The world's central banks turned hawkish in unison this spring, just as the shock that frightened them was already reversing. My mid-year report card, honestly marked, and where I think the second half goes.
The Weekly
Still in La La Land? The oil consensus unwinds
Brent crude is back to where it sat before the Middle East war, and the consensus that called for far higher prices looks distinctly foolish. Oil, gilt yields, and Micron's astonishing numbers.
Explainer
A portfolio is not a list of stocks
Most people build a portfolio one stock at a time and never ask how the stocks behave together. That second question is the one that tends to decide whether you are diversified or merely busy.
Theme
The AI boom's picks and shovels
Before the software wins, someone has to build the infrastructure. Understanding where the money actually flows in an AI boom, and why compute, power and physical infrastructure come first, is the prerequisite for reading the investment theses that follow.
Explainer
Cutting through the noise: what we actually mean
Every financial publication promises clarity. This one is named after a specific problem: the noise that surrounds every investor, every day. Here is what cutting through it actually requires.
Explainer
The seven decisions, explained
Every investor faces the same seven decisions. This is the framework behind everything on Noise Cancelling, and how Neil Woodford has approached markets across thirty-five years of managing money.
Explainer
Volatility is not risk
Price moves every day. The value of a business moves far less. Confusing the two is, in my view, the most expensive temperament error a long-term investor can make.
Explainer
When to sell: the hardest decision
Most selling is provoked by the loudest signal in the room, the share price. The decision that actually matters is quieter: has the business changed, or only its quote?
Macro
Statler and Waldorf
Why I keep picking holes in the consensus. A post-mortem of what the experts said when war broke out in the Middle East, and what the oil and jet fuel markets actually did next.
Macro
How not to run an economy
Why this government's fiscal incontinence has left it unable to fund defence, and what a real growth revolution would look like.
The Weekly
Peace, rates and a SpaceX frenzy
From a signed Iran-US peace deal and a tumbling oil price to a $3trn debut for SpaceX, Neil argues the consensus has misread almost all of it, and sets out where he thinks oil, rates, and the AI trade go from here.
Macro
A clean sweep for the Fed, nil points for the ECB
A tale of two central banks. Why the new Fed chair's drive for less communication is the right instinct, and why the ECB's latest rate hike was a mistake its own members are only making worse.
Macro
Consensus clean bowled – again!
The MPC held rates at 3.75%, but two members still voted to raise them. Neil Woodford on why the data made holding obvious, why the Bank keeps misreading inflation in the same direction, and why the next move is down.
Macro
The energy price shock that wasn't
Central banks and the consensus branded the Iran-war oil spike a 'major energy price shock'. Set against twenty years of prices, I think it's nothing of the sort.
Macro
A demographic landslide
The UN keeps cutting its population forecasts – and the latest fertility data say it still isn't pessimistic enough. We look at why birth rates are collapsing everywhere.
The Weekly
The $300bn IPO wave and why the feeding frenzy is over
A $300bn wave of AI-related IPOs, a cautious read on a rally that has run hard since April, and a contrarian case for why UK interest rates will stay on hold into 2027.
The Weekly
Ceasefire signals, BP's turmoil and the UK governance problem
The oil market saw through the Iran ceasefire noise before the headline writers did. But it's BP's third chairman in three years that prompts Neil Woodford's bigger question: why UK corporate governance may be the reason Britain doesn't build companies like Nvidia.
Macro
A dose of reality
As policymakers warn of doom, the data tells a different story. Neil takes apart the MPC, the IMF and the Chancellor in light of an April inflation print that undercuts the consensus case for caution.
Macro
The slow death of the UK equity market
Foreign bidders are picking off UK-listed companies at a decade-high pace, drawn by a valuation discount manufactured by FRS17 and MIFID 2. The consequences for the UK economy are more serious than policymakers seem to grasp.
The Weekly
UK inflation hawks are still chasing unicorns
UK inflation has surprised to the downside, gilt spreads have compressed, and Rachel Reeves' food price intervention collapsed within 24 hours. Neil Woodford on why the MPC hawks are wrong and why deflation, not inflation, is the medium-term story.
Macro
UK Economy Briefing: May 2026
Issue one of our new monthly economic briefing from the desk of Neil's favourite economist. UK growth picked up to 0.6% in Q1 2026 and, with the labour market soft and wage pressures easing, in our view Bank Rate is likely to stay at 3.75% and resume a downward path once the energy shock unwinds.
The Weekly
Labour shenanigans, AI mania and the gilt yield myth
Neil Woodford argues the media's 30-year gilt yield panic doesn't stand up to scrutiny, and that Labour's leadership turmoil will matter little to the UK economy.
The Weekly
Iran peace deal in sight, but Europe is the real long-term risk
As the Gulf war moves toward resolution, Neil argues the bigger long-term risk to the world economy isn't China — it's a Europe whose 25-year growth record speaks for itself.
The Weekly
Banks, blockades and bears: the consensus is wrong
The UAE's exit from OPEC may matter more than the war itself for the future of energy prices. Meanwhile, Q1 results from UK banks and housebuilders are quietly demolishing the bearish consensus.
Macro
The UAE just walked out on OPEC. The real question is what Saudi Arabia does next.
The UAE's departure from OPEC isn't really about prices — it's about whether the cartel's whole operating model survives. The bigger question is what Saudi Arabia does next.
Macro
The retail data backs us up — the MPC should be cutting
The sharpest UK retail sales decline in over 40 years has just confirmed what Neil warned about on the podcast: the Bank of England's inflation fears were wrong, and the MPC should be cutting.
Macro
The optimism index just hit a 50-year low — and it's dead wrong
Forecasters from the IMF to the EY Item Club keep being outpaced by the data. Neil Woodford on why the UK economic outlook is nowhere near as grim as the consensus insists — and why the IPSOS optimism index just hit a fifty-year low anyway.
Macro
The Weapon That Wins Wars?
Why the blockade — not the bombs — is likely to end the Iran war, and why the IMF has mispriced the outcome.
Macro
Peak pessimism: the IMF, the media, and the market's very different view
The S&P 500 hits a new all-time high just three weeks after flirting with a correction, while the IMF pencils in its worst-case scenario. Neil explains why the markets are reading the Gulf war — and the UK economy — more accurately than the forecasters, as Hormuz reopens and a peace deal moves into view.
Macro
Why the Gulf War Bears Are Wrong on Oil and Inflation
Neil Woodford argues the consensus on the Gulf war's economic impact is too bearish — oil at $96 in real terms is far from crisis territory, and UK inflation is set to fall, not spiral.
The Weekly
Roundup of the Week: Three Scenarios for the Gulf Crisis
I lay out three scenarios for how the Gulf conflict could play out, challenge the UK government's contradictory energy stance, and ask what a record-breaking quarter for corporate megadeals tells us about where the world economy is heading.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 27 March 2026
The Fed's measured response to the Gulf conflict contrasts with the Bank of England's hawkish misstep. Meanwhile, UK households are far better positioned for this energy shock than the doom mongers suggest.
Macro
Headlines, Hysteria and Hormuz
Markets lurched on Persian Gulf escalation, but the real story isn't the war — it's the quality of analysis driving the panic. Bloomberg ran a story about four Bank of England rate rises being "priced in." It disappeared within hours. That tells you everything you need to know.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 20 March 2026
Twenty days into the Persian Gulf conflict, the media's "apocalypse" framing continues to overshoot reality — and both the Fed and the Bank of England held rates this week, though only one of those decisions was the right call. Neil Woodford explains why the MPC is making a mistake, why higher oil prices are deflationary in a weak economy, and what the first signs of diplomatic de-escalation might look like.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 13 March 2026
The consensus has decided the Gulf war is catastrophic, but crowded consensus views are more often wrong than right — just ask anyone who predicted tariff-driven recession last year. UK GDP flatlined in January, the MPC should cut rates but probably won't, and next week brings a Fed decision and a UK rate call.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 6 March 2026
This week has been dominated by the outbreak of war in the Persian Gulf.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 27 February 2026
Weekly market and economic commentary covering the US Supreme Court tariff ruling, US-Iran tensions, tech stock volatility, falling UK gilt yields, and the dramatic collapse of Novo Nordisk.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 20 February 2026
A quiet week by recent standards — but possibly the calm before the storm, with a US strike on Iran looking increasingly likely. Meanwhile, a raft of UK economic data on labour markets, inflation, retail sales and government borrowing all point in the same direction.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 13 February 2026
The Epstein saga rumbles on, AI is quietly reshaping the US labour market, and British Gas says your electricity bill in 2030 will be worse than during the Ukraine crisis. Another week of noise — here's what actually matters.
Macro
The Housing Minister's Housing Problem
The housing minister's interview in the FT reveals a profound lack of understanding of private enterprise, supply and demand, and the real reasons behind Britain's depressed housing market. The facts tell a very different story to the one Matthew Pennycook is selling.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 6 February 2026
Difficult week, but the factors that matter for UK assets — falling inflation, lower rates ahead, better growth than expected — remain intact. The MPC is an embarrassment, but rates are coming down regardless. US tech valuations will continue to face pressure.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 30 January 2026
Markets enjoyed a quieter week, but with a US naval force heading towards Iran, the calm may not last. Meanwhile, the consensus remains far too gloomy on UK growth - inflation is heading to 2% in April and yet the MPC will probably find some reason to keep rates at 3.75%. As for the "death of the dollar" headlines? We've heard it all before. Another Corporal Fraser moment.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 23 January 2026
A week that began with horrific events in Iran quickly pivoted to a geopolitical storm over Greenland, briefly rattling markets before calm was restored at Davos. The bigger question now is not whether investors are adapting to the emerging world order — but whether Europe and the UK can do so quickly enough to avoid further marginalisation.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 16 January 2026
Geopolitics once again dominated the week, with unrest in Iran, renewed questions over energy supply, and growing concern about political interference in US monetary policy. Despite the noise, the underlying economic data in both the US and UK continues to surprise to the upside, reinforcing the case for lower inflation, falling interest rates, and stronger growth than most forecasters expect in 2026.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 9 January 2026
The year may have changed, but the forces shaping markets haven’t. Geopolitics, the AI industrial revolution and intensifying disinflationary pressures continue to define the outlook for 2026 — despite a consensus that remains too gloomy.
Macro
Mental cleansing
A year-end act of economic “letting go”. From productivity myths and phantom fiscal black holes to gloomy forecasters and broken models, this is a reminder of just how wrong the consensus repeatedly was.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 19 December 2025
A quiet end to the year, but with one big surprise: inflation in both the US and UK has fallen much faster than expected — strengthening the case for quicker and deeper rate cuts in 2026.
MacroQ1 / 2026
Global Economic Outlook 2026
Neil Woodford’s 2026 economic outlook: insights on global growth, market trends, and challenges across the US, China, Europe, and the UK.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 12 December 2025
Rates are falling, China’s imbalances are growing louder, and Washington is quietly shifting towards an industrial strategy shaped by the AI race with China. Meanwhile the OBR produces yet another forecast that simply doesn’t add up — and UK “AI superpower” rhetoric looks thin next to global chip spending.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 5 December 2025
A calm political week, but not a quiet one for markets: UK house prices stabilising, US profit margins at sixty-year highs, AI already adding a full percentage point to US growth, and global equities — led quietly by the much-maligned FTSE 100 — pushing back towards all-time highs.
Macro
UK Budget: Noise, Numbers and What Really Matters for Investors
The headlines painted this Budget as a turning point. I don’t think it is. This piece looks past the political theatre to what the Budget actually means for UK growth, gilts and equities over the next few years.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 28 November 2025
Markets bounced back this week, the UK budget landed with fewer surprises than expected, and—despite the political theatre—nothing in the Chancellor’s plans alters my upbeat outlook for 2026 and beyond.
Macro
Pre-Budget Politics: Lies, Lunacy and a £20bn Mistake
This week’s Budget is being sold on the back of a “black hole” in the public finances, blamed on Tory mismanagement, Brexit, Liz Truss and weak productivity. In reality, the problem is the scale of government spending and a set of fundamentally flawed productivity forecasts from the OBR. Those forecasts are now being used to justify around £20bn of tax rises that were never necessary – and which, in my view, still won’t stop the UK economy from surprising on the upside.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 21 November 2025
A weak week for markets, a 30% drop in Bitcoin, and yet more pre-budget chaos in Westminster – but beneath the noise, falling inflation, likely rate cuts and solid corporate news continue to support my positive view on the outlook.
Macro
UK Labour Market Data Update
The latest labour market data reveal a weakening jobs picture, falling wage growth and an almost certain December rate cut — all while the ONS’s flawed surveys continue to cloud the true state of the workforce.
Macro
Punch and Judy Show
The OBR’s “productivity crisis” is being used to justify tax rises on the basis of numbers that are little more than guesswork, while old-fashioned monetary indicators are quietly signalling that something much more positive is happening in the UK economy.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 14 November 2025
A messy week for markets and politics: UK data that looks weaker on the surface than it really is, a US shutdown finally ending, France limping through its budget, and more signs that the UK economy is quietly strengthening beneath the headlines.
Macro
Brexit: A convenient and popular scapegoat
Brexit remains the favourite excuse for Britain’s problems — but the evidence tells a different story. I argue that the UK’s economic performance since leaving the EU shows no sign of the supposed “Brexit damage” so often cited by politicians and the OBR.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 7 November 2025
Markets steady, politics chaotic — from the UK’s pre-budget theatrics to France’s budget turmoil and America’s endless shutdown. Yet beneath the noise, growth momentum is building and company results are quietly reassuring.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 31 October 2025
Trump’s Asia trip produced a long-awaited truce in the US–China trade conflict — a win for markets and a sign of easing global tension. Meanwhile, UK economic data continues to improve despite pre-budget gloom, with inflation, retail sales, and borrowing figures all beating expectations. The tone of results season remains upbeat, led by strong bank and tech earnings, and confidence is building that rate cuts may soon follow.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 24 October 2025
Markets have settled, inflation is easing, and the data continues to confound the pessimists. This week saw better-than-expected figures from the UK, an imminent Fed rate cut in the US, and solid results from the major UK banks. Meanwhile, the media’s obsession with fiscal “black holes” rolls on — but the evidence still doesn’t support it.
Macro
Dog with a bone: UK productivity mismeasurement
I’ve said it before, but it bears repeating — the ONS’s productivity data simply doesn’t make sense. According to its latest figures, UK manufacturers are hiring more people to produce less, and the labour market is supposedly booming while productivity stagnates. None of this aligns with reality. The data is broken, yet it remains the foundation for critical economic forecasts and policy decisions.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 17 October 2025
Ceasefire in Gaza, more posturing between the US and China ahead of the Trump–Xi summit, and yet another twist in France’s ongoing political soap opera — all while central banks edge closer to rate cuts. Markets have been choppy, but sentiment remains broadly stable as inflation cools and confidence builds.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 10 October 2025
Another turbulent week in global politics and markets — from France’s deepening crisis and the US government shutdown to the ONS’s latest data mishap and the ongoing debate around AI market excesses.
Macro
You couldn't make it up
Once again, the data tell a very different story from the one the media insists on repeating. The UK is not “going bust” — it’s growing faster, investing more, and performing far better than the consensus narrative allows. Yet the Chancellor risks basing policy on flawed forecasts from institutions that can’t even measure the present accurately.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 3 October 2025
The US shutdown rattles politics but not markets, while the UK’s economic revisions expose staggering ONS failings. Company highlights include Card Factory’s dividend hike and Paypoint’s breakthrough deal with Royal Mail.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 26 September 2025
Pimco joins me in forecasting lower UK inflation and rates, while Bailey signals easing ahead. Company updates highlighted Fluence, Kingfisher, Eli Lilly, Alibaba and Micron — from energy resilience and UK retail to drug pricing, AI and semiconductors.
Macro
UK Borrowing: Not the "Grim Reading" you were promised
August’s borrowing data disappointed on the surface, but anomalies in local authority revisions and VAT receipts suggest the picture is far less grim than the headlines. The OBR expects stronger numbers in the second half of the fiscal year.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 19 September 2025
US-China trade talks made real progress this week, with TikTok’s ownership close to settlement and a broader deal in sight. The Fed cut rates, UK inflation stayed calm, and China’s equities continued their sharp recovery. Europe, meanwhile, remains stuck in bureaucratic gridlock.
Macro
Uneducated educated guesses
The UK’s fiscal debate has been hijacked by flawed forecasts and media scaremongering. Neil argues the OBR’s models are unreliable, the media’s narrative self-defeating, and that real-world evidence points to stronger growth, rising productivity, and no need for further tax hikes.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 12 September 2025
This week brought disturbing news from the US with the assassination of Charlie Kirk, fresh debate in the UK over tax rumours and economic forecasts, and more evidence that my non-consensual view on UK growth is holding up. In the US, a weaker labour market makes a Fed rate cut next week inevitable, while China continues to roll out stimulus measures.
Macro
The Self-Loathing Economy
The British media’s doom-laden narrative is not only unbalanced but risks creating a distorted reality. Let’s look at the facts, not the fear.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 5 September 2025
Bond yields spiked across major markets, UK gilt hysteria proved misplaced, and corporate updates showed strength in cloud services and biotech, weakness in electric vehicles, and progress in clinical diagnostics.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 29 August 2025
Debunking the UK’s £51 billion ‘black hole’ myth, plus France’s budget crisis, gilt yields surge and Nvidia’s latest results.
Macro
Loose lips sink ships
The supposed £51bn “black hole” in the UK’s finances is nothing more than a product of NIESR’s excessively gloomy growth forecasts. The danger lies not in the numbers, but in the media narrative that risks becoming self-fulfilling.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 15 August 2025
Geopolitical tensions eased slightly this week, with progress towards US–China trade talks and improved prospects for peace in Ukraine. US inflation data defied predictions of tariff-driven price spikes, boosting the case for a September Fed rate cut. In the UK, stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth puts Britain on track to lead the G7 in H1 2025 — and could render fears of a fiscal “black hole” unfounded.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 22 August 2025
Trump’s peace push falters, UK inflation hits 3.8%, stamp duty rumours rattle housing, and US labour data raises Fed cut hopes.
Macro
Catch 22 – can we escape?
The media’s uncritical repetition of NIESR’s gloomy £50bn “black hole” forecast risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, undermining confidence and slowing growth. The OBR’s more balanced outlook suggests the deficit is already falling, with a budget surplus possible from 2027/28 — meaning panicked tax hikes are unnecessary. The real danger is talking the economy into stagnation.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 8 August 2025
This week’s update spans a lot of ground — from Trump’s latest tariff salvo against India and the ongoing debate about their inflationary impact, to a pivotal UK Supreme Court ruling that lifted a cloud over the banking sector. We also look at rate cuts on both sides of the Atlantic, a bidding war for Spectris, a string of strong corporate results, and the extraordinary scale of hyperscaler AI capex plans. As ever, some sectors are buoyant, others are still in recovery — but in both cases, opportunities remain for those willing to look past the headlines.
Macro
Theory becomes reality
I dig into the numbers behind Britain’s growing tax burden, as we lean ever more on a shrinking pool of taxpayers. If you think squeezing the “rich” is the answer, you’ll be interested in reading what the data actually says.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 1 August 2025
A week packed with political and economic news, including a major US-EU trade deal struck at Trump’s Turnberry visit, more global tariff action, and signs of growing pressure on UK regulators. Meanwhile, markets welcomed dovish tones from the Fed and a raft of strong company results across banks, biotech, and brickmakers.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 25 July 2025
A round-up of the week’s key developments across politics, markets, and economics — from Trump’s global tariff deals and Germany’s pro-growth pact to updates from W4.0 portfolio companies like Lloyds, NatWest, STMicro, and Wickes. Plus: a view on UK inflation, US rate cuts, and what to expect next week.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 18 July 2025
In this week’s update: Trump’s tariff moves on the EU and China, Powell under pressure, and a brewing energy crisis in Germany. Plus: encouraging signs from China’s economy, data centre mega-investments in the US, UK inflation and regulation, and reactions to company updates from BMW, Barratt, ASML, and Ashmore and others.
Macro
Mid-year musings: the UK housing market
In part two of my mid-year reflections, I look at the UK housing market — why government housebuilding targets are doomed to fail, how stamp duty is choking the market and the wider economy, and why it’s time to cut SDLT and interest rates to unlock growth.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 11 July 2025
This week, Trump was back in the spotlight with another round of tariff announcements — but markets barely blinked. Meanwhile, the OBR delivered another doomsday forecast, and I took a closer look at the Financial Stability Report. On the corporate side, Wuxi impressed, Zigup made solid progress, and renewable energy stocks rallied on policy clarity. Plenty going on beneath the surface, as always.
Sector
Mid-year musings: the UK stockmarket
The UK equity market has been in structural decline for years — shrinking listings, no IPOs, and a wave of foreign takeovers. I’ve written about this before, but I wanted to return to the topic and set out clearly why, despite everything, I still believe the UK market is on the cusp of a long-overdue recovery.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 4 July 2025
Markets shrugged off political drama, but AstraZeneca’s possible US move reignited debate about the UK’s undervalued equity market.
Sector
Sector investment case: Banks
UK banks remain structurally undervalued despite solid performance. I explain why I believe the discount persists—and why it might finally be about to close.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 27 June 2025
A week of surprises — from US airstrikes in Iran to a peace deal few expected. Markets took it in stride, oil fell, bond yields eased, and the S&P touched record highs. Meanwhile, UK valuations remain under pressure as yet another quality business gets snapped up.
Macro
Has the penny dropped on energy prices?
Examining the UK’s new industrial energy policy and questioning whether the government is finally facing up to the hidden costs of its net-zero ambitions.
Macro
Volatility is the price of admission
It’s been a noisy, chaotic first half to 2025 — wars, tariffs, stimulus packages, volatile oil, and plenty of political drama.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 20 June 2025
Reflecting on a week shaped by war, interest rate decisions, and market reaction, and why long-term investors should continue looking beyond the headlines.
Macro
The real cost of transition
In last week’s blog, I wrote about the real drivers of high electricity prices in the UK. Contrary to the official line, it isn’t all about imported gas. The real story lies in the cost of the energy transition — and the vast subsidies and market distortions that come with it.
Macro
Inequality Isn’t the Problem
The UK tax system is already highly progressive, and the country isn’t getting more unequal, despite what many suggest.
Sector
Sector update: Semiconductors
AI demand is soaring. Inventories are clearing. Pricing power is returning. And that’s showing up in the numbers — not just in Nvidia, but in less obvious names like STMicro and TSMC.
Macro
What a softer UK labour market really tells us
April’s UK labour market data may look confusing at first glance — with employment and unemployment both rising — but the underlying trends point to improving productivity, falling inflation, and a healthier path for the economy.
The Weekly
What to watch this week (16 June 2025)
A quick look ahead to this week’s key events, including the Israel-Iran conflict, central bank rate decisions, and UK inflation data.
Macro
Britain’s AI paradox
Nvidia’s CEO just told the UK, to its face, what many of us already knew: we lead the world in research but have failed to build the infrastructure — financial or physical — to turn it into economic success.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 13 June 2025
Global trade steadies, UK data surprises on the upside, and two undervalued sectors (semiconductors and housebuilders) show clear signs of recovery.
Macro
Big beautiful (electricity) bill
UK energy bills are soaring—but not for the reasons ministers claim. I dig into the data and uncover the real economic costs of our dash to net zero.
SectorPaid
UK Housebuilders Update
UK housebuilders are out of favour. But that’s exactly when companies often offer the best long-term opportunities.
Macro
Oikophobia and the decline narrative
I don’t buy into the idea that Britain is broken beyond repair. This piece is a reflection on oikophobia, decline narratives, and why I think there’s still plenty to be optimistic about—especially if you know where to look.
Macro
Neil's Mid-Year 2025 Market Update
Neil shares why the headlines don’t tell the full story, what he got right and wrong back in January and where he’s seeing real investment potential right now.
Stock deep dive
BioNTech: Broader appeal
After years of weak performance in the biotech sector, BioNTech has secured a landmark partnership with Bristol Myers Squibb, worth up to $11.1bn. This deal is a major validation of BioNTech’s cancer pipeline and supports Neil’s thesis: the market is undervaluing mature biotech firms. BioNTech was up 20% yesterday on the news.
Macro
Are You Not Cheered Up?
In a week full of gloomy headlines about public borrowing and tax hikes, the actual data tells a more optimistic story. Yes, April’s borrowing figure was high — but it came in below forecast, and the rise was driven by higher government investment, not out-of-control spending. So no — I’m not joining the gloom.
Macro
Inflation Surprise: oops, I got that wrong
April’s inflation number came in higher than I expected — 3.5% year-on-year vs my forecast of 3%. But the detail matters. This isn’t driven by the underlying economy.
Macro
Market Update - UK
UK markets have bounced back, the economy looks stronger than the headlines suggest, and the MPC has cut rates — but not by enough.
Macro
Market Update - US
US markets are holding up better than expected post-tariffs, but pockets like semiconductors, renewables, and biotech remain deeply undervalued.
Macro
Market Update - China
Chinese markets are stabilising post-tariffs. Stimulus is underway, trade talks are coming, and key companies in our strategies showed strong results.
Explainer
Warren Buffett to step back
I owe the great man a debt of gratitude. Throughout my career as an investor, I have learned more from him than from any other writer, commentator, or colleague.
Macro
Panic First, Think Later
Markets and boardrooms panicked after Trump’s tariffs. They shouldn’t have. Lloyds made a pointless provision, while Rolls-Royce stayed the course. Meanwhile, bond yields and energy prices are falling, and the UK housing market is showing real signs of life. Rate cuts are overdue.
SectorPaid
UK banks update
Strong Q1 results from two UK banks. Both beat expectations, delivered solid ROEs, and are still trading well below fair value — despite the usual tariff-related over caution.
Sector
The UK housing market – warming up
UK housing market showing real momentum. Strong updates from major UK housebuilders, plus a sharp rise in mortgage lending.
Macro
US economy contracts… or does it?
The headlines scream contraction, but the underlying data tell a different story. Once again, I believe the consensus has it wrong about the US economy.
Stock deep divePaid
Barclays: beating expectations
Barclays’ Q1 results back up what I said — the market’s reaction to the tariffs was overdone. Strong numbers, solid returns, and still well below book.
Stock deep divePaid
Super Micro Computer update: Q3 results
Super Micro disappointed again but the long-term opportunity remains.
Sector
Semiconductors: perception and reality (so far)
Despite the media’s panic, I expect the US economy to hold up well. Early results from semiconductor giants like TSMC and SK Hynix show strength, not collapse — and I think the tariff fears are overdone.
Macro
More bungled forecasts
The UK’s official forecasters are still misreading the economy—and why interest rates must fall faster.
Macro
Tariff tension turning point?
Despite an avalanche of dire forecasts about Trump’s tariffs triggering global recession, I remain a minority voice — and, so far, a correct one. Here's my latest take on the US, China and UK economies.
Macro
UK Economy update – it’s a ripper!
Neil takes aim at the MPC and OBR once again, highlighting their consistently over-pessimistic inflation and growth forecasts. Drawing on the latest March CPI figures and underlying economic data, he argues that the UK’s inflation outlook is improving faster than the official forecasts recognise.
Sector
Sector update: Semiconductors
Today, there is more news in the semiconductor sector that will impact several high-profile stocks in the US and Europe.
Macro
Trump Blinks, Markets Begin to Stabilise
Trump’s tariff threats are being quietly walked back. Neil Woodford explains why markets overreacted—and what’s likely to happen next.
Macro
Don't just do something, sit there
Markets have swung wildly in recent days — but does the panic reflect reality?
Macro
Market Update
Investors worldwide will be wondering what on earth is going on in financial markets. Trump’s so-called Liberation Day turned out to be anything but.
Macro
Spring Statement 2025: Some observations
The Chancellor’s Spring Statement was surprisingly upbeat, highlighting better-than-expected growth and lower-than-anticipated borrowing.
Stock deep divePaid
Next: confounding the sceptics, again
Next’s results and outlook were better than expected — again. The transformation is working, and I suspect the best is still to come.
Macro
The Queen of wishful thinking
Neil Woodford responds to the upcoming Spring Statement and the fiscal reality now facing the government. He argues that stalled growth, rising taxes, and excessive public spending have pushed the UK economy off course—and that the government’s growth narrative is built more on hope than policy.
Macro
Not good enough
Another day, another data blunder at the ONS—this time affecting price indices and potentially leading to major revisions in GDP estimates. How much bad data can policymakers rely on before real damage is done?
Macro
Is Trump Pushing America Into a Recession?
Neil takes a critical look at Trump’s tariff strategy and its real impact on the U.S. economy. Are fears of a recession justified, or is Trump simply negotiating better trade terms?
Macro
Data vs Common Sense: Fight!
The latest ONS data says manufacturing output is down more than 12% since 2020. At the same time, manufacturing employment has actually gone up slightly. How can this be?
Macro
Calm analysis or hysteria?
Recent market volatility has investors worried about a US recession, blaming Trump’s tariffs and economic policies. But is this hysteria justified?
Macro
Labour's biggest mistakes
Neil takes a critical look at the economic policies of the Labour government since their election victory. He argues their agenda—particularly on energy, taxation, and expanding state control—is making economic growth harder, not easier.
Macro
Winners and losers
The government needs to be honest about the real costs of its decisions. It’s possible to balance defence, energy, and climate priorities without undermining economic growth—but only if we stop pretending trade-offs don’t exist.
Macro
Trump, Ukraine & The Path to Peace
Donald Trump’s recent comments about Ukraine and Zelensky have sparked outrage. But is there a hidden strategy behind them?
Macro
You can't manage what you can't measure
The UK’s economic data is broken. The Bank of England and ONS publish figures that are inconsistent, often revised, and fundamentally unreliable. This mismeasurement isn’t just a statistical headache—it leads to bad decisions on interest rates, public spending, and business policy.
Macro
Not a Trumpet Voluntary
Most investors assume the UK stock market will continue to lag behind the US, but what if that assumption is wrong? With the FTSE 100 already ahead of the S&P 500 this year, could this be the start of a major shift?
Macro
A Dog's Dinner
The Bank of England’s latest rate decision and forecast update was supposed to provide clarity. Instead, it delivered a masterclass in contradiction. The MPC cut rates while simultaneously increasing inflation projections and slashing growth forecasts—none of which add up.
Macro
Beware of witches
Trump’s tariffs are being blamed for market weakness—but is that really the cause? Too often, market movements are explained with misplaced certainty. In this post, I break down why investors should be wary of convenient narratives and focus on real fundamentals.
Macro
Taking a risk
Politicians and the media keep pushing a relentlessly negative narrative about the UK economy. But does it match reality? Here's why I remain optimistic despite the challenges ahead.
Theme
AI: Hype or genuine investment opportunity?
AI is being heralded as the fourth industrial revolution, but will it reshape the world like its predecessors, or is it another overhyped trend with unclear profitability? While investors pile into Big Tech, betting on the AI boom, a new development from China is raising uncomfortable questions.
Theme
Well Kept Secrets
I’ve been thinking about how much attention the US equity market gets. While its dominance in global indices is undeniable, could it be causing investors to miss out on other, less obvious opportunities? In this piece, I share my thoughts on what’s being overlooked and why it matters for investors.
Macro
How Did We Get Here?
Trump’s presidency has already sparked dramatic changes—not just in politics but in the corporate world. From free speech to ESG and DEI, this article explores how his election is reshaping global business culture and raising questions about honesty, accountability, and the future of capitalism.
Theme
From ‘Uninvestable’ to Opportunity: Rethinking China’s Market
China’s equity market has faced scepticism, with many branding it “uninvestable” due to economic challenges, regulatory interventions, and declining corporate profits. Yet, recent government stimulus and low valuations signal that this perception might be ripe for re-evaluation. Could China offer untapped opportunities in 2025?
Macro
An ordinary popular delusion
The UK financial media is buzzing with speculation about rising gilt yields, but much of it misses the mark. Contrary to popular narratives, higher borrowing isn’t the culprit. Instead, the real story lies across the Atlantic, in the US Treasury market and Trump’s economic policies. Here’s why this matters for UK markets—and why I believe this will be short-lived.
Macro
A Sprinkle of Festive Cheer
Amid the doom and gloom surrounding the UK economy, the facts tell a different story. Despite unhelpful messaging from the government and relentless media negativity, I still believe the UK is poised for strong growth in 2025 and 2026.
Macro
My global economic outlook for Q1 2025
Since I launched Woodford Views in April, I've shared my thoughts on markets, the economy, and the broader trends shaping our world. With 2025 on the horizon, I wanted to share my views on what I think the key drivers of the global economy and financial markets will be in the first part of next year.
Historical analogue
The Woodford Story part 1
When I launched Woodford Views earlier this year I said I would tell the story of what really happened at Woodford Investment Management. This is the first part of that story.
Explainer
The art or science of investment decision making
Investment decisions shouldn’t be driven by emotion or FOMO, but by thoughtful analysis and valuation. In this article, I share my approach to evaluating businesses, understanding uncertainty, and finding undervalued opportunities that others might overlook.
Macro
Does Valuation Still Matter?
History tells us that elevated valuations often lead to lower returns, yet US equities continue to climb. Are we ignoring hard truths about investing, or has the market rewritten the rules?
Sector
Copy Nothing, Risk Everything?
Jaguar’s bold rebrand and shift to an all-electric lineup by 2026 have sparked intrigue and criticism. European carmakers are racing to adapt to EVs, fierce competition, and shifting customer attitudes.
Macro
Lies, Damned Lies, and Misleading Data
The UK economy grew by just 0.1% in Q3—or did it? Discover why outdated measurement methods distort the story and what this means for productivity and policymaking.
Macro
Very interesting times
The US election results are in, and markets are on the move. With Trump back in the White House and a Republican sweep in Congress, we’re seeing big shifts across equities, bonds, and currencies. But are the markets overestimating the inflationary impact of Trump’s policies?
Macro
Trump Wins: Markets React, China Braces
The US election results are in. With Trump’s victory and a Republican-led Senate, what will this new political landscape mean for global growth, inflation, and upcoming central bank decisions?
Macro
UK Budget Fallout and the Big Week Ahead
Reflecting on the UK budget and its limited impact on growth, while looking ahead to a major week for global markets with the US elections, China’s stimulus, and potential UK rate cuts.
Macro
Budget analysis: Much Ado About… Not Much
Despite political fanfare, the UK budget offers little to shift the economic outlook. With higher taxes and spending but no real impact on growth forecasts, the budget’s medium-term effects are minimal.
Macro
Pre-Budget perspective
As background to today’s much-anticipated budget, I thought I should provide some subjective perspective on some of the key underlying issues that Rachael Reeves will talk about later today.
Macro
Global economic view, October 2024
What’s driving the global economy in 2025? I explore key trends in the US, UK, and China, focusing on inflation, trade tensions, and interest rates. The outlook for the UK may surprise you, but there are still significant challenges on the horizon.
Macro
Popular myth massacre
Unpacking the myths around UK gilt yields and government debt. Discover why the budget deficit has no real impact on long-term yields and what truly drives market rates. Inflation, not debt, is the key player.
Macro
Boring but important
Recent GDP revisions reveal a £60 billion boost for 2024/5, generating £22 billion more in tax revenue. With the ‘black hole’ in the nation’s finances shrinking, the Chancellor now has room to adjust spending without raising taxes. Find out how this could impact the upcoming budget.
Macro
Clarity plays confusion
Explore the shortcomings of the Bank of England and OBR’s economic forecasting and their impact on UK monetary policy. This blog compares their approach to the clarity of the US Federal Reserve’s communication, highlighting the need for improvement in UK economic governance.
Macro
UK public debt: a concern?
Explore the UK’s public debt situation, how it grew due to the pandemic and energy crisis, and what its future looks like. This post examines whether the debt is a real constraint on government spending, public services, and economic growth, offering historical and current context to the debate.
Macro
A smooth sea never made a skilled sailor
Wild swings in global markets have left investors reeling. Discover what triggered Japan's record plunge and how to navigate such turmoil by focusing on long-term investment strategies.
Macro
Lucky Labour
I critique the OBR’s inaccurate economic forecasts and explore how underestimations can result in unexpected tax revenue windfalls. This extra revenue could allow the incoming Labour administration to fund its promises without raising taxes.
Macro
Red faces?
The UK economy grew by 0.4% in May, double the expected result. Yet more evidence that the forecast models in use by those overseeing interest rates and fiscal policy are giving them the wrong answers.
Macro
General Election 2024: Match Report
In this article we reflect on the outcomes of the 2024 UK General Election, noting the historical peculiarities of UK elections due to the first-past-the-post system
Macro
It isn't the economy, stupid!
Discussing the apparent disconnect between the UK’s robust economic indicators and the political outcomes expected in today's election.
Macro
The UK tech sector – missing in action?
Why is the UK’s tech sector missing in action on the equity market? Discover the challenges faced by tech companies, why UK innovations thrive abroad, and potential solutions to revitalise the sector.
Macro
GDP data: here we go again!
Yesterday, the ONS published April's GDP growth number. Although the outcome was better than the consensus expected, it has predictably led to a chorus of negative press.
Macro
General Election
With the General Election date set, many predict a Labour landslide. But history tells a different story. Could we see a surprise in the making?
Macro
Is China's rally real?
Is the recent rally in China’s equity markets a signal of robust recovery or just a fleeting reprieve? As we dissect China's complex economic strategies and global interactions, find out what these changes could mean for investors and the broader global market.
Macro
Who's in charge of UK inflation?
Are higher interest rates still the remedy for inflation as they have been in the past? I challenge some deep-seated economic theories, suggesting that what we thought we knew might not hold up under current conditions.
Macro
The OBR: what would Einstein say?
Challenging the reliance on flawed economic forecasts by institutions like the OBR, which consistently misguides government policy and public opinion. Why do we trust projections that so often miss the mark?
Macro
Can the UK equity market recover?
There are reasons for optimism about the UK equity market's recovery. We look at the transition from Defined Benefit to Defined Contribution schemes, increased capital inflows from these pensions, and the potential for valuation adjustments to begin a mean reversion, suggesting that the historically low prices of UK equities might correct to higher, more typical levels.
Macro
A quarter century of damaging reforms
Examining how regulatory reforms over the past 25 years have reshaped and challenged the UK equity market. A crucial read for understanding the deep and lasting effects on capital growth and economic vitality.
Macro
Look behind the spin
Exploring the UK economy's resilience, this blog challenges the prevalent pessimistic narratives. Highlighting discrepancies in housing market data and questioning gloomy economic forecasts from major institutions, we present evidence that suggests a more optimistic economic outlook than commonly portrayed.
Macro
The UK stock market: not damaged goods
This post explores the reasons behind the UK stock market's underperformance over the last decade (or more) and challenges the common belief that economic performance is to blame. We examine deeper causes, such as regulatory and political influences, and show potential for a promising turnaround for UK equities.
Macro
UK base rates: how important are they?
Exploring the impact of UK base rates on economic growth, we reveal how broader financial factors might drive a stronger-than-expected economic performance, regardless of rate changes.
Macro
Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3
Part 3 of 'Reasons to Be Cheerful' challenges the notion of 'falling living standards' in the UK, examining the realities of wages, housing, and employment. This final instalment offers a robust argument that despite recent hardships, the UK is poised for a promising period of growth, refuting the pervasive economic pessimism with hard evidence and a dose of optimism.
Macro
Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 2
Exploring the often grim narrative surrounding UK public finances, offering a fresh perspective on the country’s indebtedness and how government spending, particularly in response to the COVID pandemic and energy crises, has shaped the fiscal landscape.
Macro
Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 1
Contrary to popular belief, the UK economy has performed well against its peers over the last 15 years, and the ingredients are in place for it to continue to perform well. In this first post, we dispel the myth that the UK is and will continue to be a laggard in the G7.
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Introducing Woodford Views
Welcome to Woodford Views' inaugural post. Join me as I share insights from over 35 years in the investment industry, challenging conventional wisdom and exploring the real data behind economic and market trends.