Every piece we’ve published, newest first. The Weekly, the macro and theme work, the stock and sector studies, reader Q&As, historical analogues, explainers and the mistakes.
191 pieces
Ed Miliband called new North Sea drilling "climate vandalism". Now, with the chancellorship under Andy Burnham in sight, he is reported to be ready to wave the Jackdaw gas field through. What the U-turn reveals about the policy that gave Britain the dearest industrial electricity in the developed world.
UK prices have split cleanly in two since 2000. Heavily regulated goods and services have skyrocketed while competitive markets have dropped in price. Can the explanation really be that simple?
A share that has just fallen 40% is either a mispriced business or a deteriorating one. Here is how I try to tell the two apart.
With oil prices back at pre-conflict levels, our arithmetic shows CPI inflation peaking at a little over 3% in September and falling below the 2% target in the second half of 2027.
Missiles flew over the Gulf and frontier AI models multiplied, yet oil slipped and markets barely flinched
At 42 times earnings, the market is priced for a decade in which very little is allowed to go wrong
Anthropic has found a structure inside its own AI that it did not design and cannot fully explain. The headline went to consciousness. The part worth your attention is what it says about who is watching these systems, and whether they can keep up.
Saudi Arabia just cut crude prices by the most in a generation — and the barrels still won't shift
Inflation falls, the ECB looks worse, and chip stocks lose their minds
The world's central banks turned hawkish in unison this spring, just as the shock that frightened them was already reversing. My mid-year report card, honestly marked, and where I think the second half goes.
Brent crude is back to where it sat before the Middle East war, and the consensus that called for far higher prices looks distinctly foolish. Oil, gilt yields, and Micron's astonishing numbers.
Most people build a portfolio one stock at a time and never ask how the stocks behave together. That second question is the one that tends to decide whether you are diversified or merely busy.
Before the software wins, someone has to build the infrastructure. Understanding where the money actually flows in an AI boom, and why compute, power and physical infrastructure come first, is the prerequisite for reading the investment theses that follow.
Every financial publication promises clarity. This one is named after a specific problem: the noise that surrounds every investor, every day. Here is what cutting through it actually requires.
Every investor faces the same seven decisions. This is the framework behind everything on Noise Cancelling, and how Neil Woodford has approached markets across thirty-five years of managing money.
Price moves every day. The value of a business moves far less. Confusing the two is, in my view, the most expensive temperament error a long-term investor can make.
Most selling is provoked by the loudest signal in the room, the share price. The decision that actually matters is quieter: has the business changed, or only its quote?
Why I keep picking holes in the consensus. A post-mortem of what the experts said when war broke out in the Middle East, and what the oil and jet fuel markets actually did next.
Why this government's fiscal incontinence has left it unable to fund defence, and what a real growth revolution would look like.
From a signed Iran-US peace deal and a tumbling oil price to a $3trn debut for SpaceX, Neil argues the consensus has misread almost all of it, and sets out where he thinks oil, rates, and the AI trade go from here.
A tale of two central banks. Why the new Fed chair's drive for less communication is the right instinct, and why the ECB's latest rate hike was a mistake its own members are only making worse.
The MPC held rates at 3.75%, but two members still voted to raise them. Neil Woodford on why the data made holding obvious, why the Bank keeps misreading inflation in the same direction, and why the next move is down.
Central banks and the consensus branded the Iran-war oil spike a 'major energy price shock'. Set against twenty years of prices, I think it's nothing of the sort.
The UN keeps cutting its population forecasts – and the latest fertility data say it still isn't pessimistic enough. We look at why birth rates are collapsing everywhere.
A $300bn wave of AI-related IPOs, a cautious read on a rally that has run hard since April, and a contrarian case for why UK interest rates will stay on hold into 2027.
The oil market saw through the Iran ceasefire noise before the headline writers did. But it's BP's third chairman in three years that prompts Neil Woodford's bigger question: why UK corporate governance may be the reason Britain doesn't build companies like Nvidia.
As policymakers warn of doom, the data tells a different story. Neil takes apart the MPC, the IMF and the Chancellor in light of an April inflation print that undercuts the consensus case for caution.
Foreign bidders are picking off UK-listed companies at a decade-high pace, drawn by a valuation discount manufactured by FRS17 and MIFID 2. The consequences for the UK economy are more serious than policymakers seem to grasp.
UK inflation has surprised to the downside, gilt spreads have compressed, and Rachel Reeves' food price intervention collapsed within 24 hours. Neil Woodford on why the MPC hawks are wrong and why deflation, not inflation, is the medium-term story.
Issue one of our new monthly economic briefing from the desk of Neil's favourite economist. UK growth picked up to 0.6% in Q1 2026 and, with the labour market soft and wage pressures easing, in our view Bank Rate is likely to stay at 3.75% and resume a downward path once the energy shock unwinds.
Neil Woodford argues the media's 30-year gilt yield panic doesn't stand up to scrutiny, and that Labour's leadership turmoil will matter little to the UK economy.
As the Gulf war moves toward resolution, Neil argues the bigger long-term risk to the world economy isn't China — it's a Europe whose 25-year growth record speaks for itself.
The UAE's exit from OPEC may matter more than the war itself for the future of energy prices. Meanwhile, Q1 results from UK banks and housebuilders are quietly demolishing the bearish consensus.
The UAE's departure from OPEC isn't really about prices — it's about whether the cartel's whole operating model survives. The bigger question is what Saudi Arabia does next.
The sharpest UK retail sales decline in over 40 years has just confirmed what Neil warned about on the podcast: the Bank of England's inflation fears were wrong, and the MPC should be cutting.
Forecasters from the IMF to the EY Item Club keep being outpaced by the data. Neil Woodford on why the UK economic outlook is nowhere near as grim as the consensus insists — and why the IPSOS optimism index just hit a fifty-year low anyway.
Why the blockade — not the bombs — is likely to end the Iran war, and why the IMF has mispriced the outcome.
The S&P 500 hits a new all-time high just three weeks after flirting with a correction, while the IMF pencils in its worst-case scenario. Neil explains why the markets are reading the Gulf war — and the UK economy — more accurately than the forecasters, as Hormuz reopens and a peace deal moves into view.
Neil Woodford argues the consensus on the Gulf war's economic impact is too bearish — oil at $96 in real terms is far from crisis territory, and UK inflation is set to fall, not spiral.
I lay out three scenarios for how the Gulf conflict could play out, challenge the UK government's contradictory energy stance, and ask what a record-breaking quarter for corporate megadeals tells us about where the world economy is heading.
The Fed's measured response to the Gulf conflict contrasts with the Bank of England's hawkish misstep. Meanwhile, UK households are far better positioned for this energy shock than the doom mongers suggest.
Markets lurched on Persian Gulf escalation, but the real story isn't the war — it's the quality of analysis driving the panic. Bloomberg ran a story about four Bank of England rate rises being "priced in." It disappeared within hours. That tells you everything you need to know.
Twenty days into the Persian Gulf conflict, the media's "apocalypse" framing continues to overshoot reality — and both the Fed and the Bank of England held rates this week, though only one of those decisions was the right call. Neil Woodford explains why the MPC is making a mistake, why higher oil prices are deflationary in a weak economy, and what the first signs of diplomatic de-escalation might look like.
The consensus has decided the Gulf war is catastrophic, but crowded consensus views are more often wrong than right — just ask anyone who predicted tariff-driven recession last year. UK GDP flatlined in January, the MPC should cut rates but probably won't, and next week brings a Fed decision and a UK rate call.
This week has been dominated by the outbreak of war in the Persian Gulf.
Weekly market and economic commentary covering the US Supreme Court tariff ruling, US-Iran tensions, tech stock volatility, falling UK gilt yields, and the dramatic collapse of Novo Nordisk.
A quiet week by recent standards — but possibly the calm before the storm, with a US strike on Iran looking increasingly likely. Meanwhile, a raft of UK economic data on labour markets, inflation, retail sales and government borrowing all point in the same direction.
The Epstein saga rumbles on, AI is quietly reshaping the US labour market, and British Gas says your electricity bill in 2030 will be worse than during the Ukraine crisis. Another week of noise — here's what actually matters.
The housing minister's interview in the FT reveals a profound lack of understanding of private enterprise, supply and demand, and the real reasons behind Britain's depressed housing market. The facts tell a very different story to the one Matthew Pennycook is selling.
Difficult week, but the factors that matter for UK assets — falling inflation, lower rates ahead, better growth than expected — remain intact. The MPC is an embarrassment, but rates are coming down regardless. US tech valuations will continue to face pressure.
Markets enjoyed a quieter week, but with a US naval force heading towards Iran, the calm may not last. Meanwhile, the consensus remains far too gloomy on UK growth - inflation is heading to 2% in April and yet the MPC will probably find some reason to keep rates at 3.75%. As for the "death of the dollar" headlines? We've heard it all before. Another Corporal Fraser moment.
A week that began with horrific events in Iran quickly pivoted to a geopolitical storm over Greenland, briefly rattling markets before calm was restored at Davos. The bigger question now is not whether investors are adapting to the emerging world order — but whether Europe and the UK can do so quickly enough to avoid further marginalisation.
Geopolitics once again dominated the week, with unrest in Iran, renewed questions over energy supply, and growing concern about political interference in US monetary policy. Despite the noise, the underlying economic data in both the US and UK continues to surprise to the upside, reinforcing the case for lower inflation, falling interest rates, and stronger growth than most forecasters expect in 2026.
The year may have changed, but the forces shaping markets haven’t. Geopolitics, the AI industrial revolution and intensifying disinflationary pressures continue to define the outlook for 2026 — despite a consensus that remains too gloomy.
A year-end act of economic “letting go”. From productivity myths and phantom fiscal black holes to gloomy forecasters and broken models, this is a reminder of just how wrong the consensus repeatedly was.
A quiet end to the year, but with one big surprise: inflation in both the US and UK has fallen much faster than expected — strengthening the case for quicker and deeper rate cuts in 2026.
Neil Woodford’s 2026 economic outlook: insights on global growth, market trends, and challenges across the US, China, Europe, and the UK.
Rates are falling, China’s imbalances are growing louder, and Washington is quietly shifting towards an industrial strategy shaped by the AI race with China. Meanwhile the OBR produces yet another forecast that simply doesn’t add up — and UK “AI superpower” rhetoric looks thin next to global chip spending.
A calm political week, but not a quiet one for markets: UK house prices stabilising, US profit margins at sixty-year highs, AI already adding a full percentage point to US growth, and global equities — led quietly by the much-maligned FTSE 100 — pushing back towards all-time highs.
The headlines painted this Budget as a turning point. I don’t think it is. This piece looks past the political theatre to what the Budget actually means for UK growth, gilts and equities over the next few years.
Markets bounced back this week, the UK budget landed with fewer surprises than expected, and—despite the political theatre—nothing in the Chancellor’s plans alters my upbeat outlook for 2026 and beyond.
This week’s Budget is being sold on the back of a “black hole” in the public finances, blamed on Tory mismanagement, Brexit, Liz Truss and weak productivity. In reality, the problem is the scale of government spending and a set of fundamentally flawed productivity forecasts from the OBR. Those forecasts are now being used to justify around £20bn of tax rises that were never necessary – and which, in my view, still won’t stop the UK economy from surprising on the upside.
A weak week for markets, a 30% drop in Bitcoin, and yet more pre-budget chaos in Westminster – but beneath the noise, falling inflation, likely rate cuts and solid corporate news continue to support my positive view on the outlook.
The latest labour market data reveal a weakening jobs picture, falling wage growth and an almost certain December rate cut — all while the ONS’s flawed surveys continue to cloud the true state of the workforce.
The OBR’s “productivity crisis” is being used to justify tax rises on the basis of numbers that are little more than guesswork, while old-fashioned monetary indicators are quietly signalling that something much more positive is happening in the UK economy.
A messy week for markets and politics: UK data that looks weaker on the surface than it really is, a US shutdown finally ending, France limping through its budget, and more signs that the UK economy is quietly strengthening beneath the headlines.
Brexit remains the favourite excuse for Britain’s problems — but the evidence tells a different story. I argue that the UK’s economic performance since leaving the EU shows no sign of the supposed “Brexit damage” so often cited by politicians and the OBR.
Markets steady, politics chaotic — from the UK’s pre-budget theatrics to France’s budget turmoil and America’s endless shutdown. Yet beneath the noise, growth momentum is building and company results are quietly reassuring.
Trump’s Asia trip produced a long-awaited truce in the US–China trade conflict — a win for markets and a sign of easing global tension. Meanwhile, UK economic data continues to improve despite pre-budget gloom, with inflation, retail sales, and borrowing figures all beating expectations. The tone of results season remains upbeat, led by strong bank and tech earnings, and confidence is building that rate cuts may soon follow.
Markets have settled, inflation is easing, and the data continues to confound the pessimists. This week saw better-than-expected figures from the UK, an imminent Fed rate cut in the US, and solid results from the major UK banks. Meanwhile, the media’s obsession with fiscal “black holes” rolls on — but the evidence still doesn’t support it.
I’ve said it before, but it bears repeating — the ONS’s productivity data simply doesn’t make sense. According to its latest figures, UK manufacturers are hiring more people to produce less, and the labour market is supposedly booming while productivity stagnates. None of this aligns with reality. The data is broken, yet it remains the foundation for critical economic forecasts and policy decisions.
Ceasefire in Gaza, more posturing between the US and China ahead of the Trump–Xi summit, and yet another twist in France’s ongoing political soap opera — all while central banks edge closer to rate cuts. Markets have been choppy, but sentiment remains broadly stable as inflation cools and confidence builds.
Another turbulent week in global politics and markets — from France’s deepening crisis and the US government shutdown to the ONS’s latest data mishap and the ongoing debate around AI market excesses.
Once again, the data tell a very different story from the one the media insists on repeating. The UK is not “going bust” — it’s growing faster, investing more, and performing far better than the consensus narrative allows. Yet the Chancellor risks basing policy on flawed forecasts from institutions that can’t even measure the present accurately.
The US shutdown rattles politics but not markets, while the UK’s economic revisions expose staggering ONS failings. Company highlights include Card Factory’s dividend hike and Paypoint’s breakthrough deal with Royal Mail.
Pimco joins me in forecasting lower UK inflation and rates, while Bailey signals easing ahead. Company updates highlighted Fluence, Kingfisher, Eli Lilly, Alibaba and Micron — from energy resilience and UK retail to drug pricing, AI and semiconductors.
August’s borrowing data disappointed on the surface, but anomalies in local authority revisions and VAT receipts suggest the picture is far less grim than the headlines. The OBR expects stronger numbers in the second half of the fiscal year.
US-China trade talks made real progress this week, with TikTok’s ownership close to settlement and a broader deal in sight. The Fed cut rates, UK inflation stayed calm, and China’s equities continued their sharp recovery. Europe, meanwhile, remains stuck in bureaucratic gridlock.
The UK’s fiscal debate has been hijacked by flawed forecasts and media scaremongering. Neil argues the OBR’s models are unreliable, the media’s narrative self-defeating, and that real-world evidence points to stronger growth, rising productivity, and no need for further tax hikes.
This week brought disturbing news from the US with the assassination of Charlie Kirk, fresh debate in the UK over tax rumours and economic forecasts, and more evidence that my non-consensual view on UK growth is holding up. In the US, a weaker labour market makes a Fed rate cut next week inevitable, while China continues to roll out stimulus measures.
The British media’s doom-laden narrative is not only unbalanced but risks creating a distorted reality. Let’s look at the facts, not the fear.
Bond yields spiked across major markets, UK gilt hysteria proved misplaced, and corporate updates showed strength in cloud services and biotech, weakness in electric vehicles, and progress in clinical diagnostics.
Debunking the UK’s £51 billion ‘black hole’ myth, plus France’s budget crisis, gilt yields surge and Nvidia’s latest results.
The supposed £51bn “black hole” in the UK’s finances is nothing more than a product of NIESR’s excessively gloomy growth forecasts. The danger lies not in the numbers, but in the media narrative that risks becoming self-fulfilling.
Geopolitical tensions eased slightly this week, with progress towards US–China trade talks and improved prospects for peace in Ukraine. US inflation data defied predictions of tariff-driven price spikes, boosting the case for a September Fed rate cut. In the UK, stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth puts Britain on track to lead the G7 in H1 2025 — and could render fears of a fiscal “black hole” unfounded.
Trump’s peace push falters, UK inflation hits 3.8%, stamp duty rumours rattle housing, and US labour data raises Fed cut hopes.
The media’s uncritical repetition of NIESR’s gloomy £50bn “black hole” forecast risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, undermining confidence and slowing growth. The OBR’s more balanced outlook suggests the deficit is already falling, with a budget surplus possible from 2027/28 — meaning panicked tax hikes are unnecessary. The real danger is talking the economy into stagnation.
This week’s update spans a lot of ground — from Trump’s latest tariff salvo against India and the ongoing debate about their inflationary impact, to a pivotal UK Supreme Court ruling that lifted a cloud over the banking sector. We also look at rate cuts on both sides of the Atlantic, a bidding war for Spectris, a string of strong corporate results, and the extraordinary scale of hyperscaler AI capex plans. As ever, some sectors are buoyant, others are still in recovery — but in both cases, opportunities remain for those willing to look past the headlines.
I dig into the numbers behind Britain’s growing tax burden, as we lean ever more on a shrinking pool of taxpayers. If you think squeezing the “rich” is the answer, you’ll be interested in reading what the data actually says.
A week packed with political and economic news, including a major US-EU trade deal struck at Trump’s Turnberry visit, more global tariff action, and signs of growing pressure on UK regulators. Meanwhile, markets welcomed dovish tones from the Fed and a raft of strong company results across banks, biotech, and brickmakers.
A round-up of the week’s key developments across politics, markets, and economics — from Trump’s global tariff deals and Germany’s pro-growth pact to updates from W4.0 portfolio companies like Lloyds, NatWest, STMicro, and Wickes. Plus: a view on UK inflation, US rate cuts, and what to expect next week.
In this week’s update: Trump’s tariff moves on the EU and China, Powell under pressure, and a brewing energy crisis in Germany. Plus: encouraging signs from China’s economy, data centre mega-investments in the US, UK inflation and regulation, and reactions to company updates from BMW, Barratt, ASML, and Ashmore and others.
In part two of my mid-year reflections, I look at the UK housing market — why government housebuilding targets are doomed to fail, how stamp duty is choking the market and the wider economy, and why it’s time to cut SDLT and interest rates to unlock growth.
This week, Trump was back in the spotlight with another round of tariff announcements — but markets barely blinked. Meanwhile, the OBR delivered another doomsday forecast, and I took a closer look at the Financial Stability Report. On the corporate side, Wuxi impressed, Zigup made solid progress, and renewable energy stocks rallied on policy clarity. Plenty going on beneath the surface, as always.
The UK equity market has been in structural decline for years — shrinking listings, no IPOs, and a wave of foreign takeovers. I’ve written about this before, but I wanted to return to the topic and set out clearly why, despite everything, I still believe the UK market is on the cusp of a long-overdue recovery.
Markets shrugged off political drama, but AstraZeneca’s possible US move reignited debate about the UK’s undervalued equity market.
UK banks remain structurally undervalued despite solid performance. I explain why I believe the discount persists—and why it might finally be about to close.
A week of surprises — from US airstrikes in Iran to a peace deal few expected. Markets took it in stride, oil fell, bond yields eased, and the S&P touched record highs. Meanwhile, UK valuations remain under pressure as yet another quality business gets snapped up.
Examining the UK’s new industrial energy policy and questioning whether the government is finally facing up to the hidden costs of its net-zero ambitions.
It’s been a noisy, chaotic first half to 2025 — wars, tariffs, stimulus packages, volatile oil, and plenty of political drama.
Reflecting on a week shaped by war, interest rate decisions, and market reaction, and why long-term investors should continue looking beyond the headlines.
In last week’s blog, I wrote about the real drivers of high electricity prices in the UK. Contrary to the official line, it isn’t all about imported gas. The real story lies in the cost of the energy transition — and the vast subsidies and market distortions that come with it.
The UK tax system is already highly progressive, and the country isn’t getting more unequal, despite what many suggest.
AI demand is soaring. Inventories are clearing. Pricing power is returning. And that’s showing up in the numbers — not just in Nvidia, but in less obvious names like STMicro and TSMC.
April’s UK labour market data may look confusing at first glance — with employment and unemployment both rising — but the underlying trends point to improving productivity, falling inflation, and a healthier path for the economy.
A quick look ahead to this week’s key events, including the Israel-Iran conflict, central bank rate decisions, and UK inflation data.
Nvidia’s CEO just told the UK, to its face, what many of us already knew: we lead the world in research but have failed to build the infrastructure — financial or physical — to turn it into economic success.
Global trade steadies, UK data surprises on the upside, and two undervalued sectors (semiconductors and housebuilders) show clear signs of recovery.
UK energy bills are soaring—but not for the reasons ministers claim. I dig into the data and uncover the real economic costs of our dash to net zero.
UK housebuilders are out of favour. But that’s exactly when companies often offer the best long-term opportunities.
I don’t buy into the idea that Britain is broken beyond repair. This piece is a reflection on oikophobia, decline narratives, and why I think there’s still plenty to be optimistic about—especially if you know where to look.
Neil shares why the headlines don’t tell the full story, what he got right and wrong back in January and where he’s seeing real investment potential right now.
After years of weak performance in the biotech sector, BioNTech has secured a landmark partnership with Bristol Myers Squibb, worth up to $11.1bn. This deal is a major validation of BioNTech’s cancer pipeline and supports Neil’s thesis: the market is undervaluing mature biotech firms. BioNTech was up 20% yesterday on the news.
In a week full of gloomy headlines about public borrowing and tax hikes, the actual data tells a more optimistic story. Yes, April’s borrowing figure was high — but it came in below forecast, and the rise was driven by higher government investment, not out-of-control spending. So no — I’m not joining the gloom.
April’s inflation number came in higher than I expected — 3.5% year-on-year vs my forecast of 3%. But the detail matters. This isn’t driven by the underlying economy.
UK markets have bounced back, the economy looks stronger than the headlines suggest, and the MPC has cut rates — but not by enough.
US markets are holding up better than expected post-tariffs, but pockets like semiconductors, renewables, and biotech remain deeply undervalued.
Chinese markets are stabilising post-tariffs. Stimulus is underway, trade talks are coming, and key companies in our strategies showed strong results.
I owe the great man a debt of gratitude. Throughout my career as an investor, I have learned more from him than from any other writer, commentator, or colleague.
Markets and boardrooms panicked after Trump’s tariffs. They shouldn’t have. Lloyds made a pointless provision, while Rolls-Royce stayed the course. Meanwhile, bond yields and energy prices are falling, and the UK housing market is showing real signs of life. Rate cuts are overdue.
Strong Q1 results from two UK banks. Both beat expectations, delivered solid ROEs, and are still trading well below fair value — despite the usual tariff-related over caution.
UK housing market showing real momentum. Strong updates from major UK housebuilders, plus a sharp rise in mortgage lending.
The headlines scream contraction, but the underlying data tell a different story. Once again, I believe the consensus has it wrong about the US economy.
Barclays’ Q1 results back up what I said — the market’s reaction to the tariffs was overdone. Strong numbers, solid returns, and still well below book.
Super Micro disappointed again but the long-term opportunity remains.
Despite the media’s panic, I expect the US economy to hold up well. Early results from semiconductor giants like TSMC and SK Hynix show strength, not collapse — and I think the tariff fears are overdone.
The UK’s official forecasters are still misreading the economy—and why interest rates must fall faster.
Despite an avalanche of dire forecasts about Trump’s tariffs triggering global recession, I remain a minority voice — and, so far, a correct one. Here's my latest take on the US, China and UK economies.
Neil takes aim at the MPC and OBR once again, highlighting their consistently over-pessimistic inflation and growth forecasts. Drawing on the latest March CPI figures and underlying economic data, he argues that the UK’s inflation outlook is improving faster than the official forecasts recognise.
Today, there is more news in the semiconductor sector that will impact several high-profile stocks in the US and Europe.
Trump’s tariff threats are being quietly walked back. Neil Woodford explains why markets overreacted—and what’s likely to happen next.
Markets have swung wildly in recent days — but does the panic reflect reality?
Investors worldwide will be wondering what on earth is going on in financial markets. Trump’s so-called Liberation Day turned out to be anything but.
The Chancellor’s Spring Statement was surprisingly upbeat, highlighting better-than-expected growth and lower-than-anticipated borrowing.
Next’s results and outlook were better than expected — again. The transformation is working, and I suspect the best is still to come.
Neil Woodford responds to the upcoming Spring Statement and the fiscal reality now facing the government. He argues that stalled growth, rising taxes, and excessive public spending have pushed the UK economy off course—and that the government’s growth narrative is built more on hope than policy.
Another day, another data blunder at the ONS—this time affecting price indices and potentially leading to major revisions in GDP estimates. How much bad data can policymakers rely on before real damage is done?
Neil takes a critical look at Trump’s tariff strategy and its real impact on the U.S. economy. Are fears of a recession justified, or is Trump simply negotiating better trade terms?
The latest ONS data says manufacturing output is down more than 12% since 2020. At the same time, manufacturing employment has actually gone up slightly. How can this be?
Recent market volatility has investors worried about a US recession, blaming Trump’s tariffs and economic policies. But is this hysteria justified?
Neil takes a critical look at the economic policies of the Labour government since their election victory. He argues their agenda—particularly on energy, taxation, and expanding state control—is making economic growth harder, not easier.
The government needs to be honest about the real costs of its decisions. It’s possible to balance defence, energy, and climate priorities without undermining economic growth—but only if we stop pretending trade-offs don’t exist.
Donald Trump’s recent comments about Ukraine and Zelensky have sparked outrage. But is there a hidden strategy behind them?
The UK’s economic data is broken. The Bank of England and ONS publish figures that are inconsistent, often revised, and fundamentally unreliable. This mismeasurement isn’t just a statistical headache—it leads to bad decisions on interest rates, public spending, and business policy.
Most investors assume the UK stock market will continue to lag behind the US, but what if that assumption is wrong? With the FTSE 100 already ahead of the S&P 500 this year, could this be the start of a major shift?
The Bank of England’s latest rate decision and forecast update was supposed to provide clarity. Instead, it delivered a masterclass in contradiction. The MPC cut rates while simultaneously increasing inflation projections and slashing growth forecasts—none of which add up.
Trump’s tariffs are being blamed for market weakness—but is that really the cause? Too often, market movements are explained with misplaced certainty. In this post, I break down why investors should be wary of convenient narratives and focus on real fundamentals.
Politicians and the media keep pushing a relentlessly negative narrative about the UK economy. But does it match reality? Here's why I remain optimistic despite the challenges ahead.
AI is being heralded as the fourth industrial revolution, but will it reshape the world like its predecessors, or is it another overhyped trend with unclear profitability? While investors pile into Big Tech, betting on the AI boom, a new development from China is raising uncomfortable questions.
I’ve been thinking about how much attention the US equity market gets. While its dominance in global indices is undeniable, could it be causing investors to miss out on other, less obvious opportunities? In this piece, I share my thoughts on what’s being overlooked and why it matters for investors.
Trump’s presidency has already sparked dramatic changes—not just in politics but in the corporate world. From free speech to ESG and DEI, this article explores how his election is reshaping global business culture and raising questions about honesty, accountability, and the future of capitalism.
China’s equity market has faced scepticism, with many branding it “uninvestable” due to economic challenges, regulatory interventions, and declining corporate profits. Yet, recent government stimulus and low valuations signal that this perception might be ripe for re-evaluation. Could China offer untapped opportunities in 2025?
The UK financial media is buzzing with speculation about rising gilt yields, but much of it misses the mark. Contrary to popular narratives, higher borrowing isn’t the culprit. Instead, the real story lies across the Atlantic, in the US Treasury market and Trump’s economic policies. Here’s why this matters for UK markets—and why I believe this will be short-lived.
Amid the doom and gloom surrounding the UK economy, the facts tell a different story. Despite unhelpful messaging from the government and relentless media negativity, I still believe the UK is poised for strong growth in 2025 and 2026.
Since I launched Woodford Views in April, I've shared my thoughts on markets, the economy, and the broader trends shaping our world. With 2025 on the horizon, I wanted to share my views on what I think the key drivers of the global economy and financial markets will be in the first part of next year.
When I launched Woodford Views earlier this year I said I would tell the story of what really happened at Woodford Investment Management. This is the first part of that story.
Investment decisions shouldn’t be driven by emotion or FOMO, but by thoughtful analysis and valuation. In this article, I share my approach to evaluating businesses, understanding uncertainty, and finding undervalued opportunities that others might overlook.
History tells us that elevated valuations often lead to lower returns, yet US equities continue to climb. Are we ignoring hard truths about investing, or has the market rewritten the rules?
Jaguar’s bold rebrand and shift to an all-electric lineup by 2026 have sparked intrigue and criticism. European carmakers are racing to adapt to EVs, fierce competition, and shifting customer attitudes.
The UK economy grew by just 0.1% in Q3—or did it? Discover why outdated measurement methods distort the story and what this means for productivity and policymaking.
The US election results are in, and markets are on the move. With Trump back in the White House and a Republican sweep in Congress, we’re seeing big shifts across equities, bonds, and currencies. But are the markets overestimating the inflationary impact of Trump’s policies?
The US election results are in. With Trump’s victory and a Republican-led Senate, what will this new political landscape mean for global growth, inflation, and upcoming central bank decisions?
Reflecting on the UK budget and its limited impact on growth, while looking ahead to a major week for global markets with the US elections, China’s stimulus, and potential UK rate cuts.
Despite political fanfare, the UK budget offers little to shift the economic outlook. With higher taxes and spending but no real impact on growth forecasts, the budget’s medium-term effects are minimal.
As background to today’s much-anticipated budget, I thought I should provide some subjective perspective on some of the key underlying issues that Rachael Reeves will talk about later today.
What’s driving the global economy in 2025? I explore key trends in the US, UK, and China, focusing on inflation, trade tensions, and interest rates. The outlook for the UK may surprise you, but there are still significant challenges on the horizon.
Unpacking the myths around UK gilt yields and government debt. Discover why the budget deficit has no real impact on long-term yields and what truly drives market rates. Inflation, not debt, is the key player.
Recent GDP revisions reveal a £60 billion boost for 2024/5, generating £22 billion more in tax revenue. With the ‘black hole’ in the nation’s finances shrinking, the Chancellor now has room to adjust spending without raising taxes. Find out how this could impact the upcoming budget.
Explore the shortcomings of the Bank of England and OBR’s economic forecasting and their impact on UK monetary policy. This blog compares their approach to the clarity of the US Federal Reserve’s communication, highlighting the need for improvement in UK economic governance.
Explore the UK’s public debt situation, how it grew due to the pandemic and energy crisis, and what its future looks like. This post examines whether the debt is a real constraint on government spending, public services, and economic growth, offering historical and current context to the debate.
Wild swings in global markets have left investors reeling. Discover what triggered Japan's record plunge and how to navigate such turmoil by focusing on long-term investment strategies.
I critique the OBR’s inaccurate economic forecasts and explore how underestimations can result in unexpected tax revenue windfalls. This extra revenue could allow the incoming Labour administration to fund its promises without raising taxes.
The UK economy grew by 0.4% in May, double the expected result. Yet more evidence that the forecast models in use by those overseeing interest rates and fiscal policy are giving them the wrong answers.
In this article we reflect on the outcomes of the 2024 UK General Election, noting the historical peculiarities of UK elections due to the first-past-the-post system
Discussing the apparent disconnect between the UK’s robust economic indicators and the political outcomes expected in today's election.
Why is the UK’s tech sector missing in action on the equity market? Discover the challenges faced by tech companies, why UK innovations thrive abroad, and potential solutions to revitalise the sector.
Yesterday, the ONS published April's GDP growth number. Although the outcome was better than the consensus expected, it has predictably led to a chorus of negative press.
With the General Election date set, many predict a Labour landslide. But history tells a different story. Could we see a surprise in the making?
Is the recent rally in China’s equity markets a signal of robust recovery or just a fleeting reprieve? As we dissect China's complex economic strategies and global interactions, find out what these changes could mean for investors and the broader global market.
Are higher interest rates still the remedy for inflation as they have been in the past? I challenge some deep-seated economic theories, suggesting that what we thought we knew might not hold up under current conditions.
Challenging the reliance on flawed economic forecasts by institutions like the OBR, which consistently misguides government policy and public opinion. Why do we trust projections that so often miss the mark?
There are reasons for optimism about the UK equity market's recovery. We look at the transition from Defined Benefit to Defined Contribution schemes, increased capital inflows from these pensions, and the potential for valuation adjustments to begin a mean reversion, suggesting that the historically low prices of UK equities might correct to higher, more typical levels.
Examining how regulatory reforms over the past 25 years have reshaped and challenged the UK equity market. A crucial read for understanding the deep and lasting effects on capital growth and economic vitality.
Exploring the UK economy's resilience, this blog challenges the prevalent pessimistic narratives. Highlighting discrepancies in housing market data and questioning gloomy economic forecasts from major institutions, we present evidence that suggests a more optimistic economic outlook than commonly portrayed.
This post explores the reasons behind the UK stock market's underperformance over the last decade (or more) and challenges the common belief that economic performance is to blame. We examine deeper causes, such as regulatory and political influences, and show potential for a promising turnaround for UK equities.
Exploring the impact of UK base rates on economic growth, we reveal how broader financial factors might drive a stronger-than-expected economic performance, regardless of rate changes.
Part 3 of 'Reasons to Be Cheerful' challenges the notion of 'falling living standards' in the UK, examining the realities of wages, housing, and employment. This final instalment offers a robust argument that despite recent hardships, the UK is poised for a promising period of growth, refuting the pervasive economic pessimism with hard evidence and a dose of optimism.
Exploring the often grim narrative surrounding UK public finances, offering a fresh perspective on the country’s indebtedness and how government spending, particularly in response to the COVID pandemic and energy crises, has shaped the fiscal landscape.
Contrary to popular belief, the UK economy has performed well against its peers over the last 15 years, and the ingredients are in place for it to continue to perform well. In this first post, we dispel the myth that the UK is and will continue to be a laggard in the G7.
Welcome to Woodford Views' inaugural post. Join me as I share insights from over 35 years in the investment industry, challenging conventional wisdom and exploring the real data behind economic and market trends.
