Why the Fed, ECB and Bank of England consistently lag reality — moving too late, chasing inflation that has already turned — and why the rates consensus is predictably wrong.
Gulf oil exports are back at pre-war levels, yet Brent is above $100 again. Central banks reach for rate rises, an MPC hawk worries about wages the ONS says are slowing, and frozen tax thresholds keep doing the Chancellor’s work.
The OBR forecast that business investment would fall 0.9% this year, and the Bank of England 1.5%. It is up 5.2% on a year ago. Burnham’s theory of growth, a hawk on the MPC, and institutions that never admit a mistake.
A welcome housing scheme, then two conference speeches: one promising a new age of industrialisation with Europe’s dearest electricity, the other a care system the triple lock savings can’t pay for. And gilts yield barely more than Treasuries.
Iran’s seven-day offer, Xi at the White House and China leaning on Tehran: the diplomacy moved further this week than at any point since the summer. Plus five new AI models in two days and what their prices say, a Chancellor running out of headroom, and some Scottish data that horrified me.
August's borrowing numbers were worse than forecast and the gilt market did not care. Yields are following the oil price and US Treasuries. If investors really were losing faith in the UK, the pound would be the first place to look, and it is well above its 2022 low.
The price cap for January is set in November and, on where gas is now, it could go up by more than 20%. Freezing it would cost about £10bn. Lower inflation would hand roughly £7bn of that straight back through the index-linked debt book.
The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023, the MPC held, and the gilt market rallied on both. Plus an oil spike that is already unwinding, what the Bank’s minutes concede about second-round effects, and the AI chiefs who want to slow down.
A pact offered in Downing Street on Monday, a labour market that shrank again on Tuesday, and inflation on Wednesday with no second-round effects anywhere in it. The Committee votes on Thursday.
The consensus said the economy would flatline in July. It grew 0.4%, and the first half of 2026 was the fastest in the G7. The budget on 28 October will be built on five-year projections from the institution that missed all of it.
Brent is through $100 for the first time since July and European gas is back where it ended 2022. The ECB’s response was to raise rates, which will do nothing about either. Plus how much oil is really leaving the Gulf, Chinese trade data that embarrasses the deglobalisers, and the best news of the week.
John Healey's first major speech as Chancellor, delivered in a Coventry factory weeks before his budget, was a torrent of platitudes rather than an accurate diagnosis of what ails the economy.
Bond markets are blaming the government’s borrowing. I think they are reacting to the oil price, and to a Fed chairman who says he has work to do. Plus the Strait of Hormuz is leakier than advertised, and a PM who cannot decide whether the Tories spent too much or too little.
The forecasters said the Gulf war would send UK inflation past 4%. It fell. Now the same people say we have entered a new inflationary age. The data says the opposite.
The ONS now says its own labour survey has been understating how productive Britain is. On the better data, output per hour has grown twice as fast since 2019 as the number used to set tax and interest rates.
Treasury yields are back at 4.7% and the commentary has turned apocalyptic. Forty-five years of Fed funds and Treasury data say the yield curve is doing nothing unusual.
Slowing private sector pay, mythical price gouging and a cost of living crisis that isn't – what yesterday's labour market data actually reveals.
A Hormuz deal that keeps almost arriving, Brent back at $80, and a UK lending dataset saying something very different from the forecasts built on top of it.
The Bank held at 3.75%, as I expected. What I did not expect was three votes for a rise, justified by second-round effects the committee itself has conceded are not there.
A year after its £51bn black hole quietly evaporated, the NIESR is back with a £24bn sequel and an inflation forecast to match. I think it will be just as wrong – and just as damaging.
The Bank of England spent the week being wrong – on wages, on prices, on growth, and all in the same direction. Follow the data instead and you arrive somewhere the MPC won't go: inflation below 2%, rates below 3%. A cat amongst the pigeons, in other words.
The world’s most sophisticated institutions modelled this war and said catastrophe. The market, with no model at all, said no. So far the market is winning – and the reasons why go to the heart of how I think about forecasting.
Missiles over the Gulf, the AI darlings of 2026 in sharp reverse, a $5.5bn bid nobody noticed – and a tax burden heading somewhere Britain has never been in peacetime
With oil prices back at pre-conflict levels, our arithmetic shows CPI inflation peaking at a little over 3% in September and falling below the 2% target in the second half of 2027.
Saudi Arabia just cut crude prices by the most in a generation — and the barrels still won't shift
Oil hit $144 a barrel in April, the highest price ever paid for physical crude, and underlying inflation barely moved. This week, Neil Woodford explains why the oil price doesn't work the way most people think, and why three central banks tightened into a shock that was already reversing.
Inflation falls, the ECB looks worse, and chip stocks lose their minds
Why I keep picking holes in the consensus. A post-mortem of what the experts said when war broke out in the Middle East, and what the oil and jet fuel markets actually did next.
From a signed Iran-US peace deal and a tumbling oil price to a $3trn debut for SpaceX, Neil argues the consensus has misread almost all of it, and sets out where he thinks oil, rates, and the AI trade go from here.
The MPC held rates at 3.75%, but two members still voted to raise them. Neil Woodford on why the data made holding obvious, why the Bank keeps misreading inflation in the same direction, and why the next move is down.
Central banks and the consensus branded the Iran-war oil spike a 'major energy price shock'. Set against twenty years of prices, I think it's nothing of the sort.
Inflation just hit a three-year high, and the consensus has decided the era of cheap is over for good. Neil Woodford thinks that's exactly wrong — and that the inflation in the headlines is mostly one war showing up in the oil price.
A $300bn wave of AI-related IPOs, a cautious read on a rally that has run hard since April, and a contrarian case for why UK interest rates will stay on hold into 2027.
As policymakers warn of doom, the data tells a different story. Neil takes apart the MPC, the IMF and the Chancellor in light of an April inflation print that undercuts the consensus case for caution.
UK inflation has surprised to the downside, gilt spreads have compressed, and Rachel Reeves' food price intervention collapsed within 24 hours. Neil Woodford on why the MPC hawks are wrong and why deflation, not inflation, is the medium-term story.
Issue one of our new monthly economic briefing from the desk of Neil's favourite economist. UK growth picked up to 0.6% in Q1 2026 and, with the labour market soft and wage pressures easing, in our view Bank Rate is likely to stay at 3.75% and resume a downward path once the energy shock unwinds.
This week the press is unanimous: Britain is uniquely badly positioned, the IMF says so, and the 30-year gilt yield at 5.8% is proof. The Times, the Telegraph and the FT have all run the same story.
Brent jumped 7% yesterday to over $120. The consensus says oil is heading higher and the UK is heading into stagflation. We think the consensus is wrong about oil — and wrong in two directions at once.
The sharpest UK retail sales decline in over 40 years has just confirmed what Neil warned about on the podcast: the Bank of England's inflation fears were wrong, and the MPC should be cutting.
Is the Iran war already over? Neil Woodford explains why Iran has just 13 days before its oil production suffers permanent damage — and why this means oil prices, UK inflation, and interest rates could all reverse faster than markets expect.
In five weeks, UK markets went from pricing rate cuts to pricing four rate hikes. The word stagflation is on every front page. But did anything in the underlying economy actually change — or did a five-week war make everyone forget what was already happening?
Neil Woodford argues the consensus on the Gulf war's economic impact is too bearish — oil at $96 in real terms is far from crisis territory, and UK inflation is set to fall, not spiral.
The Fed's measured response to the Gulf conflict contrasts with the Bank of England's hawkish misstep. Meanwhile, UK households are far better positioned for this energy shock than the doom mongers suggest.
Markets lurched on Persian Gulf escalation, but the real story isn't the war — it's the quality of analysis driving the panic. Bloomberg ran a story about four Bank of England rate rises being "priced in." It disappeared within hours. That tells you everything you need to know.
A landmark study by Ben Bernanke — the man who went on to run the Federal Reserve — found that it wasn't oil shocks that caused recessions. It was the interest rate hikes that followed. The central bank's reaction did more damage than the oil shock itself.
Twenty days into the Persian Gulf conflict, the media's "apocalypse" framing continues to overshoot reality — and both the Fed and the Bank of England held rates this week, though only one of those decisions was the right call. Neil Woodford explains why the MPC is making a mistake, why higher oil prices are deflationary in a weak economy, and what the first signs of diplomatic de-escalation might look like.
The consensus has decided the Gulf war is catastrophic, but crowded consensus views are more often wrong than right — just ask anyone who predicted tariff-driven recession last year. UK GDP flatlined in January, the MPC should cut rates but probably won't, and next week brings a Fed decision and a UK rate call.
Weekly market and economic commentary covering the US Supreme Court tariff ruling, US-Iran tensions, tech stock volatility, falling UK gilt yields, and the dramatic collapse of Novo Nordisk.
UK unemployment just hit a five-year high. But hidden in the data is a £1.3 trillion consumer story that the Bank of England, the MPC and consensus economics are completely ignoring. Here's why it matters if you invest in UK stocks.
A quiet week by recent standards — but possibly the calm before the storm, with a US strike on Iran looking increasingly likely. Meanwhile, a raft of UK economic data on labour markets, inflation, retail sales and government borrowing all point in the same direction.
Difficult week, but the factors that matter for UK assets — falling inflation, lower rates ahead, better growth than expected — remain intact. The MPC is an embarrassment, but rates are coming down regardless. US tech valuations will continue to face pressure.
Markets enjoyed a quieter week, but with a US naval force heading towards Iran, the calm may not last. Meanwhile, the consensus remains far too gloomy on UK growth - inflation is heading to 2% in April and yet the MPC will probably find some reason to keep rates at 3.75%. As for the "death of the dollar" headlines? We've heard it all before. Another Corporal Fraser moment.
Geopolitics once again dominated the week, with unrest in Iran, renewed questions over energy supply, and growing concern about political interference in US monetary policy. Despite the noise, the underlying economic data in both the US and UK continues to surprise to the upside, reinforcing the case for lower inflation, falling interest rates, and stronger growth than most forecasters expect in 2026.
The year may have changed, but the forces shaping markets haven’t. Geopolitics, the AI industrial revolution and intensifying disinflationary pressures continue to define the outlook for 2026 — despite a consensus that remains too gloomy.
A quiet end to the year, but with one big surprise: inflation in both the US and UK has fallen much faster than expected — strengthening the case for quicker and deeper rate cuts in 2026.
Rates are falling, China’s imbalances are growing louder, and Washington is quietly shifting towards an industrial strategy shaped by the AI race with China. Meanwhile the OBR produces yet another forecast that simply doesn’t add up — and UK “AI superpower” rhetoric looks thin next to global chip spending.
US financial system fragility, private credit, Treasury basis trade, Japan’s BOJ and Bitcoin—Neil Woodford explains what could break next (and what probably won’t).
The headlines painted this Budget as a turning point. I don’t think it is. This piece looks past the political theatre to what the Budget actually means for UK growth, gilts and equities over the next few years.
Markets bounced back this week, the UK budget landed with fewer surprises than expected, and—despite the political theatre—nothing in the Chancellor’s plans alters my upbeat outlook for 2026 and beyond.
A weak week for markets, a 30% drop in Bitcoin, and yet more pre-budget chaos in Westminster – but beneath the noise, falling inflation, likely rate cuts and solid corporate news continue to support my positive view on the outlook.
The latest labour market data reveal a weakening jobs picture, falling wage growth and an almost certain December rate cut — all while the ONS’s flawed surveys continue to cloud the true state of the workforce.
The OBR’s “productivity crisis” is being used to justify tax rises on the basis of numbers that are little more than guesswork, while old-fashioned monetary indicators are quietly signalling that something much more positive is happening in the UK economy.
Markets have settled, inflation is easing, and the data continues to confound the pessimists. This week saw better-than-expected figures from the UK, an imminent Fed rate cut in the US, and solid results from the major UK banks. Meanwhile, the media’s obsession with fiscal “black holes” rolls on — but the evidence still doesn’t support it.
Ceasefire in Gaza, more posturing between the US and China ahead of the Trump–Xi summit, and yet another twist in France’s ongoing political soap opera — all while central banks edge closer to rate cuts. Markets have been choppy, but sentiment remains broadly stable as inflation cools and confidence builds.
Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s major market developments. In this episode, they investigate the speculation surrounding a potential market crash, analyse the reasons behind gold reaching $4,000/oz, and examine the political turmoil in France.
Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s major market developments. In this episode, Neil shares his perspective on Donald Trump’s surprise shift on Ukraine and what it signals for geopolitics and markets. We cover the growing clash over drug pricing in the UK and why major pharma companies are pulling back investment. Neil also explains why he agrees with PIMCO that UK inflation and interest rates could fall faster than consensus expects, and what the $4 trillion wave of AI investment means for future returns — and for investors tempted to trust ChatGPT with their stock picks.
Pimco joins me in forecasting lower UK inflation and rates, while Bailey signals easing ahead. Company updates highlighted Fluence, Kingfisher, Eli Lilly, Alibaba and Micron — from energy resilience and UK retail to drug pricing, AI and semiconductors.
In this episode, Neil gives his view on the latest central bank rate decisions from the Fed and the Bank of England. We also cover US-China trade relations, with insights into the implications of TikTok’s deal, NVIDIA’s AI chip restrictions and how US investment in the UK could impact the economy and why caution is still advised despite a promising announcement.
US-China trade talks made real progress this week, with TikTok’s ownership close to settlement and a broader deal in sight. The Fed cut rates, UK inflation stayed calm, and China’s equities continued their sharp recovery. Europe, meanwhile, remains stuck in bureaucratic gridlock.
Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s most significant market stories. In this episode, Neil shares his insights on Merck’s decision to halt its billion-pound research centre in London, central bank rate decisions, China’s latest stimulus measures, and Larry Ellison’s unprecedented wealth gain. Discover why bond yields are returning to previous levels and what this means for investors.
This week brought disturbing news from the US with the assassination of Charlie Kirk, fresh debate in the UK over tax rumours and economic forecasts, and more evidence that my non-consensual view on UK growth is holding up. In the US, a weaker labour market makes a Fed rate cut next week inevitable, while China continues to roll out stimulus measures.
This week, the finance world has been anything but calm. Neil Woodford takes us through a story of unexpected market moves and the ripple effects across sectors and continents. Find out what’s really going on and why it matters to you.
Bond yields spiked across major markets, UK gilt hysteria proved misplaced, and corporate updates showed strength in cloud services and biotech, weakness in electric vehicles, and progress in clinical diagnostics.
Debunking the UK’s £51 billion ‘black hole’ myth, plus France’s budget crisis, gilt yields surge and Nvidia’s latest results.
Neil and Jon catch up to discuss the week’s biggest stories — from Trump’s peace push in Ukraine and the knock-on effects for defence stocks and oil, to the ONS’s data delays, the latest UK inflation figures, and what it all means for markets.
Neil and Jon catch up to dissect the week’s biggest market stories — from stronger-than-expected UK GDP figures and growing pressure for US rate cuts, to DeepSeek’s AI training challenges, Harbour Energy’s North Sea retreat, and why UK wind farms are being paid not to produce nearly 40% of the time.
Trump’s peace push falters, UK inflation hits 3.8%, stamp duty rumours rattle housing, and US labour data raises Fed cut hopes.
Geopolitical tensions eased slightly this week, with progress towards US–China trade talks and improved prospects for peace in Ukraine. US inflation data defied predictions of tariff-driven price spikes, boosting the case for a September Fed rate cut. In the UK, stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth puts Britain on track to lead the G7 in H1 2025 — and could render fears of a fiscal “black hole” unfounded.
This week on W4.0, Neil Woodford breaks down the biggest market stories shaping his investment strategies.
A week packed with political and economic news, including a major US-EU trade deal struck at Trump’s Turnberry visit, more global tariff action, and signs of growing pressure on UK regulators. Meanwhile, markets welcomed dovish tones from the Fed and a raft of strong company results across banks, biotech, and brickmakers.
A round-up of the week’s key developments across politics, markets, and economics — from Trump’s global tariff deals and Germany’s pro-growth pact to updates from W4.0 portfolio companies like Lloyds, NatWest, STMicro, and Wickes. Plus: a view on UK inflation, US rate cuts, and what to expect next week.
In this week’s update: Trump’s tariff moves on the EU and China, Powell under pressure, and a brewing energy crisis in Germany. Plus: encouraging signs from China’s economy, data centre mega-investments in the US, UK inflation and regulation, and reactions to company updates from BMW, Barratt, ASML, and Ashmore and others.
In part two of my mid-year reflections, I look at the UK housing market — why government housebuilding targets are doomed to fail, how stamp duty is choking the market and the wider economy, and why it’s time to cut SDLT and interest rates to unlock growth.
A week of surprises — from US airstrikes in Iran to a peace deal few expected. Markets took it in stride, oil fell, bond yields eased, and the S&P touched record highs. Meanwhile, UK valuations remain under pressure as yet another quality business gets snapped up.
Reflecting on a week shaped by war, interest rate decisions, and market reaction, and why long-term investors should continue looking beyond the headlines.
April’s UK labour market data may look confusing at first glance — with employment and unemployment both rising — but the underlying trends point to improving productivity, falling inflation, and a healthier path for the economy.
A quick look ahead to this week’s key events, including the Israel-Iran conflict, central bank rate decisions, and UK inflation data.
April’s inflation number came in higher than I expected — 3.5% year-on-year vs my forecast of 3%. But the detail matters. This isn’t driven by the underlying economy.
UK markets have bounced back, the economy looks stronger than the headlines suggest, and the MPC has cut rates — but not by enough.
Markets and boardrooms panicked after Trump’s tariffs. They shouldn’t have. Lloyds made a pointless provision, while Rolls-Royce stayed the course. Meanwhile, bond yields and energy prices are falling, and the UK housing market is showing real signs of life. Rate cuts are overdue.
The UK’s official forecasters are still misreading the economy—and why interest rates must fall faster.
Neil takes aim at the MPC and OBR once again, highlighting their consistently over-pessimistic inflation and growth forecasts. Drawing on the latest March CPI figures and underlying economic data, he argues that the UK’s inflation outlook is improving faster than the official forecasts recognise.
Another day, another data blunder at the ONS—this time affecting price indices and potentially leading to major revisions in GDP estimates. How much bad data can policymakers rely on before real damage is done?
The UK’s economic data is broken. The Bank of England and ONS publish figures that are inconsistent, often revised, and fundamentally unreliable. This mismeasurement isn’t just a statistical headache—it leads to bad decisions on interest rates, public spending, and business policy.
The Bank of England’s latest rate decision and forecast update was supposed to provide clarity. Instead, it delivered a masterclass in contradiction. The MPC cut rates while simultaneously increasing inflation projections and slashing growth forecasts—none of which add up.
The UK financial media is buzzing with speculation about rising gilt yields, but much of it misses the mark. Contrary to popular narratives, higher borrowing isn’t the culprit. Instead, the real story lies across the Atlantic, in the US Treasury market and Trump’s economic policies. Here’s why this matters for UK markets—and why I believe this will be short-lived.
Since I launched Woodford Views in April, I've shared my thoughts on markets, the economy, and the broader trends shaping our world. With 2025 on the horizon, I wanted to share my views on what I think the key drivers of the global economy and financial markets will be in the first part of next year.
The US election results are in, and markets are on the move. With Trump back in the White House and a Republican sweep in Congress, we’re seeing big shifts across equities, bonds, and currencies. But are the markets overestimating the inflationary impact of Trump’s policies?
The US election results are in. With Trump’s victory and a Republican-led Senate, what will this new political landscape mean for global growth, inflation, and upcoming central bank decisions?
Reflecting on the UK budget and its limited impact on growth, while looking ahead to a major week for global markets with the US elections, China’s stimulus, and potential UK rate cuts.
What’s driving the global economy in 2025? I explore key trends in the US, UK, and China, focusing on inflation, trade tensions, and interest rates. The outlook for the UK may surprise you, but there are still significant challenges on the horizon.
Unpacking the myths around UK gilt yields and government debt. Discover why the budget deficit has no real impact on long-term yields and what truly drives market rates. Inflation, not debt, is the key player.
Explore the shortcomings of the Bank of England and OBR’s economic forecasting and their impact on UK monetary policy. This blog compares their approach to the clarity of the US Federal Reserve’s communication, highlighting the need for improvement in UK economic governance.
The UK economy grew by 0.4% in May, double the expected result. Yet more evidence that the forecast models in use by those overseeing interest rates and fiscal policy are giving them the wrong answers.
Are higher interest rates still the remedy for inflation as they have been in the past? I challenge some deep-seated economic theories, suggesting that what we thought we knew might not hold up under current conditions.
Exploring the impact of UK base rates on economic growth, we reveal how broader financial factors might drive a stronger-than-expected economic performance, regardless of rate changes.
