Macro
The floor under oil is going
Saudi Arabia just cut crude prices by the most in a generation — and the barrels still won't shift
Topic · Investment thesis
Central banks are fighting the last war
Why the Fed, ECB and Bank of England consistently lag reality — moving too late, chasing inflation that has already turned — and why the rates consensus is predictably wrong.
The Show · S2 Ep 1
Three Central Banks Made the Same Mistake in One Week
Oil hit $144 a barrel in April, the highest price ever paid for physical crude, and underlying inflation barely moved. This week, Neil Woodford explains why the oil price doesn't work the way most people think, and why three central banks tightened into a shock that was already reversing.
The Weekly
Governments don't create growth
Inflation falls, the ECB looks worse, and chip stocks lose their minds
Macro
Statler and Waldorf
Why I keep picking holes in the consensus. A post-mortem of what the experts said when war broke out in the Middle East, and what the oil and jet fuel markets actually did next.
The Weekly
Peace, rates and a SpaceX frenzy
From a signed Iran-US peace deal and a tumbling oil price to a $3trn debut for SpaceX, Neil argues the consensus has misread almost all of it, and sets out where he thinks oil, rates, and the AI trade go from here.
Macro
Consensus clean bowled – again!
The MPC held rates at 3.75%, but two members still voted to raise them. Neil Woodford on why the data made holding obvious, why the Bank keeps misreading inflation in the same direction, and why the next move is down.
Macro
The energy price shock that wasn't
Central banks and the consensus branded the Iran-war oil spike a 'major energy price shock'. Set against twenty years of prices, I think it's nothing of the sort.
The Show · S1 Ep 40
The Three Forces About to Crush Inflation
Inflation just hit a three-year high, and the consensus has decided the era of cheap is over for good. Neil Woodford thinks that's exactly wrong — and that the inflation in the headlines is mostly one war showing up in the oil price.
The Weekly
The $300bn IPO wave and why the feeding frenzy is over
A $300bn wave of AI-related IPOs, a cautious read on a rally that has run hard since April, and a contrarian case for why UK interest rates will stay on hold into 2027.
Macro
A dose of reality
As policymakers warn of doom, the data tells a different story. Neil takes apart the MPC, the IMF and the Chancellor in light of an April inflation print that undercuts the consensus case for caution.
The Weekly
UK inflation hawks are still chasing unicorns
UK inflation has surprised to the downside, gilt spreads have compressed, and Rachel Reeves' food price intervention collapsed within 24 hours. Neil Woodford on why the MPC hawks are wrong and why deflation, not inflation, is the medium-term story.
Macro
UK Economy Briefing: May 2026
Issue one of our new monthly economic briefing from the desk of Neil's favourite economist. UK growth picked up to 0.6% in Q1 2026 and, with the labour market soft and wage pressures easing, in our view Bank Rate is likely to stay at 3.75% and resume a downward path once the energy shock unwinds.
The Show · S1 Ep 37
Why the IMF Is Wrong About Britain (And What To Do About It)
This week the press is unanimous: Britain is uniquely badly positioned, the IMF says so, and the 30-year gilt yield at 5.8% is proof. The Times, the Telegraph and the FT have all run the same story.
The Show · S1 Ep 35
The blockade is working. The cartel is breaking. Oil is going down.
Brent jumped 7% yesterday to over $120. The consensus says oil is heading higher and the UK is heading into stagflation. We think the consensus is wrong about oil — and wrong in two directions at once.
Macro
The retail data backs us up — the MPC should be cutting
The sharpest UK retail sales decline in over 40 years has just confirmed what Neil warned about on the podcast: the Bank of England's inflation fears were wrong, and the MPC should be cutting.
The Show · S1 Ep 33
The Iran War Is Already Over — Here's Why
Is the Iran war already over? Neil Woodford explains why Iran has just 13 days before its oil production suffers permanent damage — and why this means oil prices, UK inflation, and interest rates could all reverse faster than markets expect.
The Show · S1 Ep 32
The Stagflation Panic Is Wrong — Here's What's Really Happening
In five weeks, UK markets went from pricing rate cuts to pricing four rate hikes. The word stagflation is on every front page. But did anything in the underlying economy actually change — or did a five-week war make everyone forget what was already happening?
Macro
Why the Gulf War Bears Are Wrong on Oil and Inflation
Neil Woodford argues the consensus on the Gulf war's economic impact is too bearish — oil at $96 in real terms is far from crisis territory, and UK inflation is set to fall, not spiral.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 27 March 2026
The Fed's measured response to the Gulf conflict contrasts with the Bank of England's hawkish misstep. Meanwhile, UK households are far better positioned for this energy shock than the doom mongers suggest.
Macro
Headlines, Hysteria and Hormuz
Markets lurched on Persian Gulf escalation, but the real story isn't the war — it's the quality of analysis driving the panic. Bloomberg ran a story about four Bank of England rate rises being "priced in." It disappeared within hours. That tells you everything you need to know.
The Show · S1 Ep 29
Every Oil Shock Is Followed by a Recession. But Not for the Reason You Think
A landmark study by Ben Bernanke — the man who went on to run the Federal Reserve — found that it wasn't oil shocks that caused recessions. It was the interest rate hikes that followed. The central bank's reaction did more damage than the oil shock itself.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 20 March 2026
Twenty days into the Persian Gulf conflict, the media's "apocalypse" framing continues to overshoot reality — and both the Fed and the Bank of England held rates this week, though only one of those decisions was the right call. Neil Woodford explains why the MPC is making a mistake, why higher oil prices are deflationary in a weak economy, and what the first signs of diplomatic de-escalation might look like.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 13 March 2026
The consensus has decided the Gulf war is catastrophic, but crowded consensus views are more often wrong than right — just ask anyone who predicted tariff-driven recession last year. UK GDP flatlined in January, the MPC should cut rates but probably won't, and next week brings a Fed decision and a UK rate call.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 27 February 2026
Weekly market and economic commentary covering the US Supreme Court tariff ruling, US-Iran tensions, tech stock volatility, falling UK gilt yields, and the dramatic collapse of Novo Nordisk.
The Show · S1 Ep 25
The UK Market Tailwind Almost Nobody Is Pricing In
UK unemployment just hit a five-year high. But hidden in the data is a £1.3 trillion consumer story that the Bank of England, the MPC and consensus economics are completely ignoring. Here's why it matters if you invest in UK stocks.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 20 February 2026
A quiet week by recent standards — but possibly the calm before the storm, with a US strike on Iran looking increasingly likely. Meanwhile, a raft of UK economic data on labour markets, inflation, retail sales and government borrowing all point in the same direction.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 6 February 2026
Difficult week, but the factors that matter for UK assets — falling inflation, lower rates ahead, better growth than expected — remain intact. The MPC is an embarrassment, but rates are coming down regardless. US tech valuations will continue to face pressure.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 30 January 2026
Markets enjoyed a quieter week, but with a US naval force heading towards Iran, the calm may not last. Meanwhile, the consensus remains far too gloomy on UK growth - inflation is heading to 2% in April and yet the MPC will probably find some reason to keep rates at 3.75%. As for the "death of the dollar" headlines? We've heard it all before. Another Corporal Fraser moment.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 16 January 2026
Geopolitics once again dominated the week, with unrest in Iran, renewed questions over energy supply, and growing concern about political interference in US monetary policy. Despite the noise, the underlying economic data in both the US and UK continues to surprise to the upside, reinforcing the case for lower inflation, falling interest rates, and stronger growth than most forecasters expect in 2026.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 9 January 2026
The year may have changed, but the forces shaping markets haven’t. Geopolitics, the AI industrial revolution and intensifying disinflationary pressures continue to define the outlook for 2026 — despite a consensus that remains too gloomy.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 19 December 2025
A quiet end to the year, but with one big surprise: inflation in both the US and UK has fallen much faster than expected — strengthening the case for quicker and deeper rate cuts in 2026.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 12 December 2025
Rates are falling, China’s imbalances are growing louder, and Washington is quietly shifting towards an industrial strategy shaped by the AI race with China. Meanwhile the OBR produces yet another forecast that simply doesn’t add up — and UK “AI superpower” rhetoric looks thin next to global chip spending.
The Show · S1 Ep 18
Is the US financial system more fragile than it looks?
US financial system fragility, private credit, Treasury basis trade, Japan’s BOJ and Bitcoin—Neil Woodford explains what could break next (and what probably won’t).
Macro
UK Budget: Noise, Numbers and What Really Matters for Investors
The headlines painted this Budget as a turning point. I don’t think it is. This piece looks past the political theatre to what the Budget actually means for UK growth, gilts and equities over the next few years.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 28 November 2025
Markets bounced back this week, the UK budget landed with fewer surprises than expected, and—despite the political theatre—nothing in the Chancellor’s plans alters my upbeat outlook for 2026 and beyond.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 21 November 2025
A weak week for markets, a 30% drop in Bitcoin, and yet more pre-budget chaos in Westminster – but beneath the noise, falling inflation, likely rate cuts and solid corporate news continue to support my positive view on the outlook.
Macro
UK Labour Market Data Update
The latest labour market data reveal a weakening jobs picture, falling wage growth and an almost certain December rate cut — all while the ONS’s flawed surveys continue to cloud the true state of the workforce.
Macro
Punch and Judy Show
The OBR’s “productivity crisis” is being used to justify tax rises on the basis of numbers that are little more than guesswork, while old-fashioned monetary indicators are quietly signalling that something much more positive is happening in the UK economy.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 24 October 2025
Markets have settled, inflation is easing, and the data continues to confound the pessimists. This week saw better-than-expected figures from the UK, an imminent Fed rate cut in the US, and solid results from the major UK banks. Meanwhile, the media’s obsession with fiscal “black holes” rolls on — but the evidence still doesn’t support it.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 17 October 2025
Ceasefire in Gaza, more posturing between the US and China ahead of the Trump–Xi summit, and yet another twist in France’s ongoing political soap opera — all while central banks edge closer to rate cuts. Markets have been choppy, but sentiment remains broadly stable as inflation cools and confidence builds.
The Show · S1 Ep 10
Are we heading for catastrophe?
Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s major market developments. In this episode, they investigate the speculation surrounding a potential market crash, analyse the reasons behind gold reaching $4,000/oz, and examine the political turmoil in France.
The Show · S1 Ep 8
Trump flips on Ukraine, PIMCO joins the doves, $4T AI boom
Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s major market developments. In this episode, Neil shares his perspective on Donald Trump’s surprise shift on Ukraine and what it signals for geopolitics and markets. We cover the growing clash over drug pricing in the UK and why major pharma companies are pulling back investment. Neil also explains why he agrees with PIMCO that UK inflation and interest rates could fall faster than consensus expects, and what the $4 trillion wave of AI investment means for future returns — and for investors tempted to trust ChatGPT with their stock picks.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 26 September 2025
Pimco joins me in forecasting lower UK inflation and rates, while Bailey signals easing ahead. Company updates highlighted Fluence, Kingfisher, Eli Lilly, Alibaba and Micron — from energy resilience and UK retail to drug pricing, AI and semiconductors.
The Show · S1 Ep 7
FED cuts, BOE holds. Tiktok saved? $250Bn to the UK.
In this episode, Neil gives his view on the latest central bank rate decisions from the Fed and the Bank of England. We also cover US-China trade relations, with insights into the implications of TikTok’s deal, NVIDIA’s AI chip restrictions and how US investment in the UK could impact the economy and why caution is still advised despite a promising announcement.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 19 September 2025
US-China trade talks made real progress this week, with TikTok’s ownership close to settlement and a broader deal in sight. The Fed cut rates, UK inflation stayed calm, and China’s equities continued their sharp recovery. Europe, meanwhile, remains stuck in bureaucratic gridlock.
The Show · S1 Ep 6
Pharma Walks Out, Red Tape Gone Mad, Oracle Skyrockets
Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s most significant market stories. In this episode, Neil shares his insights on Merck’s decision to halt its billion-pound research centre in London, central bank rate decisions, China’s latest stimulus measures, and Larry Ellison’s unprecedented wealth gain. Discover why bond yields are returning to previous levels and what this means for investors.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 12 September 2025
This week brought disturbing news from the US with the assassination of Charlie Kirk, fresh debate in the UK over tax rumours and economic forecasts, and more evidence that my non-consensual view on UK growth is holding up. In the US, a weaker labour market makes a Fed rate cut next week inevitable, while China continues to roll out stimulus measures.
The Show · S1 Ep 5
Bond Yields, UK Sector Performance & China's Resurgence
This week, the finance world has been anything but calm. Neil Woodford takes us through a story of unexpected market moves and the ripple effects across sectors and continents. Find out what’s really going on and why it matters to you.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 5 September 2025
Bond yields spiked across major markets, UK gilt hysteria proved misplaced, and corporate updates showed strength in cloud services and biotech, weakness in electric vehicles, and progress in clinical diagnostics.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 29 August 2025
Debunking the UK’s £51 billion ‘black hole’ myth, plus France’s budget crisis, gilt yields surge and Nvidia’s latest results.
The Show · S1 Ep 3
Ukraine Peace Talks, UK Inflation Data & Stamp Duty Farewell?
Neil and Jon catch up to discuss the week’s biggest stories — from Trump’s peace push in Ukraine and the knock-on effects for defence stocks and oil, to the ONS’s data delays, the latest UK inflation figures, and what it all means for markets.
The Show · S1 Ep 2
Strong UK GDP, US Rate Cut Pressure, Wind Farm Madness
Neil and Jon catch up to dissect the week’s biggest market stories — from stronger-than-expected UK GDP figures and growing pressure for US rate cuts, to DeepSeek’s AI training challenges, Harbour Energy’s North Sea retreat, and why UK wind farms are being paid not to produce nearly 40% of the time.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 22 August 2025
Trump’s peace push falters, UK inflation hits 3.8%, stamp duty rumours rattle housing, and US labour data raises Fed cut hopes.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 15 August 2025
Geopolitical tensions eased slightly this week, with progress towards US–China trade talks and improved prospects for peace in Ukraine. US inflation data defied predictions of tariff-driven price spikes, boosting the case for a September Fed rate cut. In the UK, stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth puts Britain on track to lead the G7 in H1 2025 — and could render fears of a fiscal “black hole” unfounded.
The Show · S1 Ep 1
Tariffs, Rate Cuts and AI Spending
This week on W4.0, Neil Woodford breaks down the biggest market stories shaping his investment strategies.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 1 August 2025
A week packed with political and economic news, including a major US-EU trade deal struck at Trump’s Turnberry visit, more global tariff action, and signs of growing pressure on UK regulators. Meanwhile, markets welcomed dovish tones from the Fed and a raft of strong company results across banks, biotech, and brickmakers.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 25 July 2025
A round-up of the week’s key developments across politics, markets, and economics — from Trump’s global tariff deals and Germany’s pro-growth pact to updates from W4.0 portfolio companies like Lloyds, NatWest, STMicro, and Wickes. Plus: a view on UK inflation, US rate cuts, and what to expect next week.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 18 July 2025
In this week’s update: Trump’s tariff moves on the EU and China, Powell under pressure, and a brewing energy crisis in Germany. Plus: encouraging signs from China’s economy, data centre mega-investments in the US, UK inflation and regulation, and reactions to company updates from BMW, Barratt, ASML, and Ashmore and others.
Macro
Mid-year musings: the UK housing market
In part two of my mid-year reflections, I look at the UK housing market — why government housebuilding targets are doomed to fail, how stamp duty is choking the market and the wider economy, and why it’s time to cut SDLT and interest rates to unlock growth.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 27 June 2025
A week of surprises — from US airstrikes in Iran to a peace deal few expected. Markets took it in stride, oil fell, bond yields eased, and the S&P touched record highs. Meanwhile, UK valuations remain under pressure as yet another quality business gets snapped up.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 20 June 2025
Reflecting on a week shaped by war, interest rate decisions, and market reaction, and why long-term investors should continue looking beyond the headlines.
Macro
What a softer UK labour market really tells us
April’s UK labour market data may look confusing at first glance — with employment and unemployment both rising — but the underlying trends point to improving productivity, falling inflation, and a healthier path for the economy.
The Weekly
What to watch this week (16 June 2025)
A quick look ahead to this week’s key events, including the Israel-Iran conflict, central bank rate decisions, and UK inflation data.
Macro
Inflation Surprise: oops, I got that wrong
April’s inflation number came in higher than I expected — 3.5% year-on-year vs my forecast of 3%. But the detail matters. This isn’t driven by the underlying economy.
Macro
Market Update - UK
UK markets have bounced back, the economy looks stronger than the headlines suggest, and the MPC has cut rates — but not by enough.
Macro
Panic First, Think Later
Markets and boardrooms panicked after Trump’s tariffs. They shouldn’t have. Lloyds made a pointless provision, while Rolls-Royce stayed the course. Meanwhile, bond yields and energy prices are falling, and the UK housing market is showing real signs of life. Rate cuts are overdue.
Macro
More bungled forecasts
The UK’s official forecasters are still misreading the economy—and why interest rates must fall faster.
Macro
UK Economy update – it’s a ripper!
Neil takes aim at the MPC and OBR once again, highlighting their consistently over-pessimistic inflation and growth forecasts. Drawing on the latest March CPI figures and underlying economic data, he argues that the UK’s inflation outlook is improving faster than the official forecasts recognise.
Macro
Not good enough
Another day, another data blunder at the ONS—this time affecting price indices and potentially leading to major revisions in GDP estimates. How much bad data can policymakers rely on before real damage is done?
Macro
You can't manage what you can't measure
The UK’s economic data is broken. The Bank of England and ONS publish figures that are inconsistent, often revised, and fundamentally unreliable. This mismeasurement isn’t just a statistical headache—it leads to bad decisions on interest rates, public spending, and business policy.
Macro
A Dog's Dinner
The Bank of England’s latest rate decision and forecast update was supposed to provide clarity. Instead, it delivered a masterclass in contradiction. The MPC cut rates while simultaneously increasing inflation projections and slashing growth forecasts—none of which add up.
Macro
An ordinary popular delusion
The UK financial media is buzzing with speculation about rising gilt yields, but much of it misses the mark. Contrary to popular narratives, higher borrowing isn’t the culprit. Instead, the real story lies across the Atlantic, in the US Treasury market and Trump’s economic policies. Here’s why this matters for UK markets—and why I believe this will be short-lived.
Macro
My global economic outlook for Q1 2025
Since I launched Woodford Views in April, I've shared my thoughts on markets, the economy, and the broader trends shaping our world. With 2025 on the horizon, I wanted to share my views on what I think the key drivers of the global economy and financial markets will be in the first part of next year.
Macro
Very interesting times
The US election results are in, and markets are on the move. With Trump back in the White House and a Republican sweep in Congress, we’re seeing big shifts across equities, bonds, and currencies. But are the markets overestimating the inflationary impact of Trump’s policies?
Macro
Trump Wins: Markets React, China Braces
The US election results are in. With Trump’s victory and a Republican-led Senate, what will this new political landscape mean for global growth, inflation, and upcoming central bank decisions?
Macro
UK Budget Fallout and the Big Week Ahead
Reflecting on the UK budget and its limited impact on growth, while looking ahead to a major week for global markets with the US elections, China’s stimulus, and potential UK rate cuts.
Macro
Global economic view, October 2024
What’s driving the global economy in 2025? I explore key trends in the US, UK, and China, focusing on inflation, trade tensions, and interest rates. The outlook for the UK may surprise you, but there are still significant challenges on the horizon.
Macro
Popular myth massacre
Unpacking the myths around UK gilt yields and government debt. Discover why the budget deficit has no real impact on long-term yields and what truly drives market rates. Inflation, not debt, is the key player.
Macro
Clarity plays confusion
Explore the shortcomings of the Bank of England and OBR’s economic forecasting and their impact on UK monetary policy. This blog compares their approach to the clarity of the US Federal Reserve’s communication, highlighting the need for improvement in UK economic governance.
Macro
Red faces?
The UK economy grew by 0.4% in May, double the expected result. Yet more evidence that the forecast models in use by those overseeing interest rates and fiscal policy are giving them the wrong answers.
Macro
Who's in charge of UK inflation?
Are higher interest rates still the remedy for inflation as they have been in the past? I challenge some deep-seated economic theories, suggesting that what we thought we knew might not hold up under current conditions.
Macro
UK base rates: how important are they?
Exploring the impact of UK base rates on economic growth, we reveal how broader financial factors might drive a stronger-than-expected economic performance, regardless of rate changes.