Topics
What’s actually moving
Browse by the questions in front of the market right now. Each topic gathers the pieces, the show and the mistakes that bear on it — the decision framework still runs underneath, it just isn’t the way in.
Neil's running argument that the UK — its economy and its public finances — is consistently misrepresented as a basket case by politicians, the OBR and the press, and that the declinist consensus is empirically wrong.
View this topic →Compute, power and the physical bottlenecks behind the boom — where the money actually has to go.
View this topic →Why the Fed, ECB and Bank of England consistently lag reality — moving too late, chasing inflation that has already turned — and why the rates consensus is predictably wrong.
View this topic →The case that UK equities trade at unjustified discounts to global peers, and that patient, contrarian investors are rewarded for owning what the market has written off.
View this topic →How Middle East conflict drives oil, inflation and central-bank decisions — and why the conventional 'oil shock = recession' narrative keeps being wrong.
View this topic →Neil's investment philosophy: why following the crowd destroys returns, how to read sentiment as a contrary indicator, and the discipline of holding a thesis when everyone disagrees.
View this topic →Still-live theses that aren’t front of mind right now — every piece stays here and on its own page.
The argument that tariffs are a tax on consumers, not a weapon against rivals — and that investors who panic-sell on trade-war headlines underperform those who hold.
View this topic →The contrarian case that the consensus verdict on China — 'uninvestable' — is wrong: cheap valuations and turning stimulus make it an opportunity the West has written off too soon.
View this topic →The transition is misunderstood on both sides: UK net-zero policy, not imported gas, drives crippling industrial electricity prices — while the investment opportunity in energy and renewables is just as badly mispriced.
View this topic →Neil’s periodic read on the world economy — where growth, inflation, interest rates and the major markets are heading.
View this topic →Ukraine, great-power competition, European fragmentation and shifting alliances — what a changing world order means for investors.
View this topic →US fundamentals under Trump — growth, inflation, the dollar and policy — and what they mean for global markets.
View this topic →Birth rates, ageing and the long-run demographic forces reshaping economies and markets.
View this topic →