Every investor faces the same few decisions. Neil Woodford, 35 years in the markets, works through them in the open – the analysis, the judgement, and a straight account of how it turned out. The signal on the things that matter, without the noise.
The world’s most sophisticated institutions modelled this war and said catastrophe. The market, with no model at all, said no. So far the market is winning – and the reasons why go to the heart of how I think about forecasting.
The world's central banks turned hawkish in unison this spring, just as the shock that frightened them was already reversing. My mid-year report card, honestly marked, and where I think the second half goes.
Missiles over the Gulf, the AI darlings of 2026 in sharp reverse, a $5.5bn bid nobody noticed – and a tax burden heading somewhere Britain has never been in peacetime
Ed Miliband called new North Sea drilling "climate vandalism". Now, with the chancellorship under Andy Burnham in sight, he is reported to be ready to wave the Jackdaw gas field through. What the U-turn reveals about the policy that gave Britain the dearest industrial electricity in the developed world.
UK prices have split cleanly in two since 2000. Heavily regulated goods and services have skyrocketed while competitive markets have dropped in price. Can the explanation really be that simple?
A share that has just fallen 40% is either a mispriced business or a deteriorating one. Here is how I try to tell the two apart.
With oil prices back at pre-conflict levels, our arithmetic shows CPI inflation peaking at a little over 3% in September and falling below the 2% target in the second half of 2027.
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Neil's running argument that the UK — its economy and its public finances — is consistently misrepresented as a basket case by politicians, the OBR and the press, and that the declinist consensus is empirically wrong.
View this topic →Compute, power and the physical bottlenecks behind the boom — where the money actually has to go.
View this topic →Why the Fed, ECB and Bank of England consistently lag reality — moving too late, chasing inflation that has already turned — and why the rates consensus is predictably wrong.
View this topic →The case that UK equities trade at unjustified discounts to global peers, and that patient, contrarian investors are rewarded for owning what the market has written off.
View this topic →How Middle East conflict drives oil, inflation and central-bank decisions — and why the conventional 'oil shock = recession' narrative keeps being wrong.
View this topic →With oil prices back at pre-conflict levels, our arithmetic shows CPI inflation peaking at a little over 3% in September and falling below the 2% target in the second half of 2027.
Neil WoodfordLead voice · 35 years investingOne named, accountable investor – not an algorithm, not a newsroom. The source is a person whose judgement has been backed with real money over real time, who shows the reasoning and is straight about how it turned out. That is the one thing no competitor can copy.
Neil talks the week through the way the decisions actually get made – with the reasoning shown. Watch it, or take it as audio.
S2 Ep 3 · 42 MINThe week filtered — what dominated the noise, what’s underneath it, and what it means. One email, Fridays.
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