The Weekly
A loud week the markets shrugged off
Missiles flew over the Gulf and frontier AI models multiplied, yet oil slipped and markets barely flinched
Topic · Investment thesis
Middle East, oil and the macro shock
How Middle East conflict drives oil, inflation and central-bank decisions — and why the conventional 'oil shock = recession' narrative keeps being wrong.
Macro
The floor under oil is going
Saudi Arabia just cut crude prices by the most in a generation — and the barrels still won't shift
The Show · S2 Ep 1
Three Central Banks Made the Same Mistake in One Week
Oil hit $144 a barrel in April, the highest price ever paid for physical crude, and underlying inflation barely moved. This week, Neil Woodford explains why the oil price doesn't work the way most people think, and why three central banks tightened into a shock that was already reversing.
The Weekly
Governments don't create growth
Inflation falls, the ECB looks worse, and chip stocks lose their minds
Macro
Statler and Waldorf
Why I keep picking holes in the consensus. A post-mortem of what the experts said when war broke out in the Middle East, and what the oil and jet fuel markets actually did next.
The Weekly
Peace, rates and a SpaceX frenzy
From a signed Iran-US peace deal and a tumbling oil price to a $3trn debut for SpaceX, Neil argues the consensus has misread almost all of it, and sets out where he thinks oil, rates, and the AI trade go from here.
The Show · S1 Ep 40
The Three Forces About to Crush Inflation
Inflation just hit a three-year high, and the consensus has decided the era of cheap is over for good. Neil Woodford thinks that's exactly wrong — and that the inflation in the headlines is mostly one war showing up in the oil price.
The Weekly
Ceasefire signals, BP's turmoil and the UK governance problem
The oil market saw through the Iran ceasefire noise before the headline writers did. But it's BP's third chairman in three years that prompts Neil Woodford's bigger question: why UK corporate governance may be the reason Britain doesn't build companies like Nvidia.
The Weekly
Iran peace deal in sight, but Europe is the real long-term risk
As the Gulf war moves toward resolution, Neil argues the bigger long-term risk to the world economy isn't China — it's a Europe whose 25-year growth record speaks for itself.
The Show · S1 Ep 35
The blockade is working. The cartel is breaking. Oil is going down.
Brent jumped 7% yesterday to over $120. The consensus says oil is heading higher and the UK is heading into stagflation. We think the consensus is wrong about oil — and wrong in two directions at once.
The Weekly
Banks, blockades and bears: the consensus is wrong
The UAE's exit from OPEC may matter more than the war itself for the future of energy prices. Meanwhile, Q1 results from UK banks and housebuilders are quietly demolishing the bearish consensus.
Macro
The UAE just walked out on OPEC. The real question is what Saudi Arabia does next.
The UAE's departure from OPEC isn't really about prices — it's about whether the cartel's whole operating model survives. The bigger question is what Saudi Arabia does next.
The Show · S1 Ep 34
Britain's Energy Shock Won't Break the Economy — Here's What Will
Every major UK forecaster — the IMF, Capital Economics, EY Item Club, KPMG — has downgraded Britain's growth for 2026 and blamed the energy shock. Neil Woodford thinks every one of them is wrong. Not about the numbers. About the diagnosis.
Macro
The Weapon That Wins Wars?
Why the blockade — not the bombs — is likely to end the Iran war, and why the IMF has mispriced the outcome.
The Show · S1 Ep 33
The Iran War Is Already Over — Here's Why
Is the Iran war already over? Neil Woodford explains why Iran has just 13 days before its oil production suffers permanent damage — and why this means oil prices, UK inflation, and interest rates could all reverse faster than markets expect.
Macro
Peak pessimism: the IMF, the media, and the market's very different view
The S&P 500 hits a new all-time high just three weeks after flirting with a correction, while the IMF pencils in its worst-case scenario. Neil explains why the markets are reading the Gulf war — and the UK economy — more accurately than the forecasters, as Hormuz reopens and a peace deal moves into view.
The Show · S1 Ep 32
The Stagflation Panic Is Wrong — Here's What's Really Happening
In five weeks, UK markets went from pricing rate cuts to pricing four rate hikes. The word stagflation is on every front page. But did anything in the underlying economy actually change — or did a five-week war make everyone forget what was already happening?
Macro
Why the Gulf War Bears Are Wrong on Oil and Inflation
Neil Woodford argues the consensus on the Gulf war's economic impact is too bearish — oil at $96 in real terms is far from crisis territory, and UK inflation is set to fall, not spiral.
The Show · S1 Ep 31
Three Ways This War Ends (One Of Them Is Very Bad)
The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Oil is above $100. Trump just told the world to reopen it themselves. Every channel is covering what happened — we're giving you a framework for what happens next.
The Weekly
Roundup of the Week: Three Scenarios for the Gulf Crisis
I lay out three scenarios for how the Gulf conflict could play out, challenge the UK government's contradictory energy stance, and ask what a record-breaking quarter for corporate megadeals tells us about where the world economy is heading.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 27 March 2026
The Fed's measured response to the Gulf conflict contrasts with the Bank of England's hawkish misstep. Meanwhile, UK households are far better positioned for this energy shock than the doom mongers suggest.
Macro
Headlines, Hysteria and Hormuz
Markets lurched on Persian Gulf escalation, but the real story isn't the war — it's the quality of analysis driving the panic. Bloomberg ran a story about four Bank of England rate rises being "priced in." It disappeared within hours. That tells you everything you need to know.
The Show · S1 Ep 29
Every Oil Shock Is Followed by a Recession. But Not for the Reason You Think
A landmark study by Ben Bernanke — the man who went on to run the Federal Reserve — found that it wasn't oil shocks that caused recessions. It was the interest rate hikes that followed. The central bank's reaction did more damage than the oil shock itself.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 20 March 2026
Twenty days into the Persian Gulf conflict, the media's "apocalypse" framing continues to overshoot reality — and both the Fed and the Bank of England held rates this week, though only one of those decisions was the right call. Neil Woodford explains why the MPC is making a mistake, why higher oil prices are deflationary in a weak economy, and what the first signs of diplomatic de-escalation might look like.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 13 March 2026
The consensus has decided the Gulf war is catastrophic, but crowded consensus views are more often wrong than right — just ask anyone who predicted tariff-driven recession last year. UK GDP flatlined in January, the MPC should cut rates but probably won't, and next week brings a Fed decision and a UK rate call.
The Show · S1 Ep 27
War in Iran — The 5 Principles That Stop You Panic Selling
War has broken out between the US, Israel and Iran. The Dow dropped 600 points on Monday morning. Oil spiked. Gold surged. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. And every investor is asking the same question: what do I do?
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 6 March 2026
This week has been dominated by the outbreak of war in the Persian Gulf.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 27 February 2026
Weekly market and economic commentary covering the US Supreme Court tariff ruling, US-Iran tensions, tech stock volatility, falling UK gilt yields, and the dramatic collapse of Novo Nordisk.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 20 February 2026
A quiet week by recent standards — but possibly the calm before the storm, with a US strike on Iran looking increasingly likely. Meanwhile, a raft of UK economic data on labour markets, inflation, retail sales and government borrowing all point in the same direction.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 30 January 2026
Markets enjoyed a quieter week, but with a US naval force heading towards Iran, the calm may not last. Meanwhile, the consensus remains far too gloomy on UK growth - inflation is heading to 2% in April and yet the MPC will probably find some reason to keep rates at 3.75%. As for the "death of the dollar" headlines? We've heard it all before. Another Corporal Fraser moment.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 23 January 2026
A week that began with horrific events in Iran quickly pivoted to a geopolitical storm over Greenland, briefly rattling markets before calm was restored at Davos. The bigger question now is not whether investors are adapting to the emerging world order — but whether Europe and the UK can do so quickly enough to avoid further marginalisation.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 16 January 2026
Geopolitics once again dominated the week, with unrest in Iran, renewed questions over energy supply, and growing concern about political interference in US monetary policy. Despite the noise, the underlying economic data in both the US and UK continues to surprise to the upside, reinforcing the case for lower inflation, falling interest rates, and stronger growth than most forecasters expect in 2026.
The Show · S1 Ep 3
Ukraine Peace Talks, UK Inflation Data & Stamp Duty Farewell?
Neil and Jon catch up to discuss the week’s biggest stories — from Trump’s peace push in Ukraine and the knock-on effects for defence stocks and oil, to the ONS’s data delays, the latest UK inflation figures, and what it all means for markets.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 27 June 2025
A week of surprises — from US airstrikes in Iran to a peace deal few expected. Markets took it in stride, oil fell, bond yields eased, and the S&P touched record highs. Meanwhile, UK valuations remain under pressure as yet another quality business gets snapped up.
Macro
Volatility is the price of admission
It’s been a noisy, chaotic first half to 2025 — wars, tariffs, stimulus packages, volatile oil, and plenty of political drama.
The Weekly
Roundup of the week: 20 June 2025
Reflecting on a week shaped by war, interest rate decisions, and market reaction, and why long-term investors should continue looking beyond the headlines.
The Weekly
What to watch this week (16 June 2025)
A quick look ahead to this week’s key events, including the Israel-Iran conflict, central bank rate decisions, and UK inflation data.