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The consensus is almost always wrong

Neil's investment philosophy: why following the crowd destroys returns, how to read sentiment as a contrary indicator, and the discipline of holding a thesis when everyone disagrees.

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Macro

Statler and Waldorf

Why I keep picking holes in the consensus. A post-mortem of what the experts said when war broke out in the Middle East, and what the oil and jet fuel markets actually did next.

Neil Woodford · 8 min read
The Show · S2 Ep 2

London Isn't Dying — It's On Sale. Here's Where To Look

UK stocks are being taken private at a record pace: this year, takeover bids for London-listed companies have run at roughly £60bn against under £600m raised in new IPOs, and Neil Woodford argues that this wave of M&A is the clearest sign in years that UK equities are undervalued. In this episode, Woodford and Jon Adair break down why the FTSE and London stock market trade at such a deep discount to the US, what a 75% takeover premium reveals about UK share prices, whether British stocks are cheap or a value trap, and where Woodford sees value across UK banks, oil and housebuilders.

33 min · video + audio · 10 Jul 2026
The Show · S2 Ep 1

Three Central Banks Made the Same Mistake in One Week

Oil hit $144 a barrel in April, the highest price ever paid for physical crude, and underlying inflation barely moved. This week, Neil Woodford explains why the oil price doesn't work the way most people think, and why three central banks tightened into a shock that was already reversing.

40 min · video + audio · 3 Jul 2026
Macro

Consensus clean bowled – again!

The MPC held rates at 3.75%, but two members still voted to raise them. Neil Woodford on why the data made holding obvious, why the Bank keeps misreading inflation in the same direction, and why the next move is down.

Neil Woodford · 8 min · 17 Jun 2026
The Show · S1 Ep 40

The Three Forces About to Crush Inflation

Inflation just hit a three-year high, and the consensus has decided the era of cheap is over for good. Neil Woodford thinks that's exactly wrong — and that the inflation in the headlines is mostly one war showing up in the oil price.

42 min · video + audio · 5 Jun 2026
The Show · S1 Ep 39

Why Britain Can't Build a Trillion Dollar Giant

This week, a single American memory chip company became worth more than AstraZeneca, HSBC and Shell combined. So why has Britain never built one of its own?

31 min · video + audio · 29 May 2026
The Show · S1 Ep 38

The AI IPO Wave Is Coming

SpaceX has filed for IPO. OpenAI and Anthropic are next. The biggest AI listings in history are about to hit US markets — together worth more than the entire FTSE 100. Most of the coverage frames this as confirmation that the AI boom keeps running. Neil Woodford's view is different: the trade may already be more concentrated than investors realise, and where the money flows from here is the question almost nobody is asking.

36 min · video + audio · 22 May 2026
The Weekly

Banks, blockades and bears: the consensus is wrong

The UAE's exit from OPEC may matter more than the war itself for the future of energy prices. Meanwhile, Q1 results from UK banks and housebuilders are quietly demolishing the bearish consensus.

Neil Woodford · 7 min · 1 May 2026
Macro

The optimism index just hit a 50-year low — and it's dead wrong

Forecasters from the IMF to the EY Item Club keep being outpaced by the data. Neil Woodford on why the UK economic outlook is nowhere near as grim as the consensus insists — and why the IPSOS optimism index just hit a fifty-year low anyway.

Neil Woodford · 7 min · 23 Apr 2026
Macro

Peak pessimism: the IMF, the media, and the market's very different view

The S&P 500 hits a new all-time high just three weeks after flirting with a correction, while the IMF pencils in its worst-case scenario. Neil explains why the markets are reading the Gulf war — and the UK economy — more accurately than the forecasters, as Hormuz reopens and a peace deal moves into view.

Neil Woodford · 8 min · 17 Apr 2026
Macro

Headlines, Hysteria and Hormuz

Markets lurched on Persian Gulf escalation, but the real story isn't the war — it's the quality of analysis driving the panic. Bloomberg ran a story about four Bank of England rate rises being "priced in." It disappeared within hours. That tells you everything you need to know.

Neil Woodford · 3 min · 23 Mar 2026
The Show · S1 Ep 28

Why Investors Are Selling Their Best Stocks Right Now

UK banks were the best-performing sector on the London Stock Exchange last year. Housebuilders had been climbing since September. Then the rate cut trade reversed in less than two weeks.

38 min · video + audio · 13 Mar 2026
The Weekly

Roundup of the week: 13 March 2026

The consensus has decided the Gulf war is catastrophic, but crowded consensus views are more often wrong than right — just ask anyone who predicted tariff-driven recession last year. UK GDP flatlined in January, the MPC should cut rates but probably won't, and next week brings a Fed decision and a UK rate call.

Neil Woodford · 8 min · 13 Mar 2026
The Show · S1 Ep 27

War in Iran — The 5 Principles That Stop You Panic Selling

War has broken out between the US, Israel and Iran. The Dow dropped 600 points on Monday morning. Oil spiked. Gold surged. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. And every investor is asking the same question: what do I do?

44 min · video + audio · 6 Mar 2026
The Show · S1 Ep 26

The Price of Perfection: Why Expensive Markets Break First

Why are markets so fragile right now? In this episode, Neil breaks down the one question most investors don’t ask clearly enough: what are you actually paying for when you buy a stock? We go back to first principles on valuation, explain the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio in plain English, and show why the starting valuation often determines your long-run returns.  

42 min · audio · 27 Feb 2026
The Show · S1 Ep 21

How I'm Investing in 2026 (What If I'm Wrong?)

Neil Woodford predicted Trump's second year would be calmer. But in January alone, Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro has been captured, there's been talk of Greenland and Canada annexation, and Taiwan tensions continue to escalate – he was wrong. Yet his strategies still beat the market. What can we learn from Neil's way of thinking?

54 min · video + audio · 23 Jan 2026
The Show · S1 Ep 20

103 Economists Are Wrong About The UK (Here's the Data)

In December, Neil published his 2026 outlook, calling for 2% UK growth while the consensus predicted just 1%. This week, the FT polled 103 economists — two-thirds expect even MORE tax rises due to "persistently weak growth."

57 min · video + audio · 9 Jan 2026
Macro

Mental cleansing

A year-end act of economic “letting go”. From productivity myths and phantom fiscal black holes to gloomy forecasters and broken models, this is a reminder of just how wrong the consensus repeatedly was.

Neil Woodford · 5 min · 20 Dec 2025
The Show · S1 Ep 16

Are We All Doomed or Just Being Misled?

Is AI really a bubble? Is the UK economy broken with a huge “black hole” that forces Rachel Reeves to raise taxes? Is Bitcoin finally dead after the latest crash? In this episode of Noise Cancelling, Neil Woodford takes on the doom-mongers and explains what’s actually going on – and what it means for investors.

40 min · video + audio · 21 Nov 2025
The Show · S1 Ep 15

The AI Lie: Why Investors Are Getting This Completely Wrong

Are AI valuations out of control? Are investors blindly following the Mag7? In this episode of Noise Cancelling, Neil Woodford breaks down the real risks in the AI boom, why the S&P 500 is more concentrated than most people realise, and why he believes the consensus has completely misunderstood this moment in markets.

39 min · video + audio · 14 Nov 2025
The Show · S1 Ep 14

The Chancellor's Big Lie About Britain's Economy

Neil Woodford calls out Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' ‘expectation management’ speech ahead of the UK Budget — arguing that Britain’s economic problems aren’t caused by low taxes, Brexit or Liz Truss’s mini-Budget, but by record government spending. In this week’s episode, Neil dissects every claim from Rachel Reeves and exposes what he calls “the big lie” about Britain’s economy.

37 min · video + audio · 7 Nov 2025
The Show · S1 Ep 11

The Truth About Buying Stocks at High Valuations

Is it better to buy the bubble or miss the boom? Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s major market developments. In this episode, they discuss the implications of high valuations on future returns, the performance of Neil's Top 40 investment strategy, and the significance of accurate productivity data in the UK.

44 min · audio · 17 Oct 2025
The Show · S1 Ep 10

Are we heading for catastrophe?

Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s major market developments. In this episode, they investigate the speculation surrounding a potential market crash, analyse the reasons behind gold reaching $4,000/oz, and examine the political turmoil in France.

40 min · audio · 10 Oct 2025
The Show · S1 Ep 9

Are we in an AI bubble? And will the UK need an IMF bailout?

Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s major market developments. In this episode, is an AI bubble forming? Neil unpacks the hype and reality of AI’s economic impact as well as how he's positioned the W4.0 strategies to benefit from the AI industrial revolution without having to accept ludicrous valuations. We also discuss the likelihood that the UK will need an IMF bailout.

43 min · video + audio · 3 Oct 2025
Sector

Mid-year musings: the UK stockmarket

The UK equity market has been in structural decline for years — shrinking listings, no IPOs, and a wave of foreign takeovers. I’ve written about this before, but I wanted to return to the topic and set out clearly why, despite everything, I still believe the UK market is on the cusp of a long-overdue recovery.

Neil Woodford · 6 min · 10 Jul 2025
Sector

Sector investment case: Banks

UK banks remain structurally undervalued despite solid performance. I explain why I believe the discount persists—and why it might finally be about to close.

Neil Woodford · 6 min · 28 Jun 2025
Macro

Volatility is the price of admission

It’s been a noisy, chaotic first half to 2025 — wars, tariffs, stimulus packages, volatile oil, and plenty of political drama.

Neil Woodford · 3 min · 24 Jun 2025
The Weekly

Roundup of the week: 20 June 2025

Reflecting on a week shaped by war, interest rate decisions, and market reaction, and why long-term investors should continue looking beyond the headlines.

Neil Woodford · 6 min · 20 Jun 2025
Macro

Oikophobia and the decline narrative

I don’t buy into the idea that Britain is broken beyond repair. This piece is a reflection on oikophobia, decline narratives, and why I think there’s still plenty to be optimistic about—especially if you know where to look.

Neil Woodford · 3 min · 10 Jun 2025
Macro

Neil's Mid-Year 2025 Market Update

Neil shares why the headlines don’t tell the full story, what he got right and wrong back in January and where he’s seeing real investment potential right now.

Neil Woodford · 4 min · 4 Jun 2025
Stock deep dive

BioNTech: Broader appeal

After years of weak performance in the biotech sector, BioNTech has secured a landmark partnership with Bristol Myers Squibb, worth up to $11.1bn. This deal is a major validation of BioNTech’s cancer pipeline and supports Neil’s thesis: the market is undervaluing mature biotech firms. BioNTech was up 20% yesterday on the news.

Neil Woodford · 2 min · 3 Jun 2025
Explainer

Warren Buffett to step back

I owe the great man a debt of gratitude. Throughout my career as an investor, I have learned more from him than from any other writer, commentator, or colleague.

Neil Woodford · 2 min · 6 May 2025
Macro

Trump Blinks, Markets Begin to Stabilise

Trump’s tariff threats are being quietly walked back. Neil Woodford explains why markets overreacted—and what’s likely to happen next.

Neil Woodford · 6 min · 16 Apr 2025
Macro

Market Update

Investors worldwide will be wondering what on earth is going on in financial markets. Trump’s so-called Liberation Day turned out to be anything but.

Neil Woodford · 4 min · 8 Apr 2025
Stock deep divePaid

Next: confounding the sceptics, again

Next’s results and outlook were better than expected — again. The transformation is working, and I suspect the best is still to come.

Neil Woodford · 1 min · 27 Mar 2025
Macro

Calm analysis or hysteria?

Recent market volatility has investors worried about a US recession, blaming Trump’s tariffs and economic policies. But is this hysteria justified?

Neil Woodford · 7 min · 12 Mar 2025
Macro

Not a Trumpet Voluntary

Most investors assume the UK stock market will continue to lag behind the US, but what if that assumption is wrong? With the FTSE 100 already ahead of the S&P 500 this year, could this be the start of a major shift?

Neil Woodford · 3 min · 26 Feb 2025
Macro

Beware of witches

Trump’s tariffs are being blamed for market weakness—but is that really the cause? Too often, market movements are explained with misplaced certainty. In this post, I break down why investors should be wary of convenient narratives and focus on real fundamentals.

Neil Woodford · 2 min · 3 Feb 2025
Macro

Taking a risk

Politicians and the media keep pushing a relentlessly negative narrative about the UK economy. But does it match reality? Here's why I remain optimistic despite the challenges ahead.

Neil Woodford · 8 min · 3 Feb 2025
Theme

Well Kept Secrets

I’ve been thinking about how much attention the US equity market gets. While its dominance in global indices is undeniable, could it be causing investors to miss out on other, less obvious opportunities? In this piece, I share my thoughts on what’s being overlooked and why it matters for investors.

Neil Woodford · 4 min · 24 Jan 2025
Macro

My global economic outlook for Q1 2025

Since I launched Woodford Views in April, I've shared my thoughts on markets, the economy, and the broader trends shaping our world. With 2025 on the horizon, I wanted to share my views on what I think the key drivers of the global economy and financial markets will be in the first part of next year.

Neil Woodford · 1 min · 20 Dec 2024
Explainer

The art or science of investment decision making

Investment decisions shouldn’t be driven by emotion or FOMO, but by thoughtful analysis and valuation. In this article, I share my approach to evaluating businesses, understanding uncertainty, and finding undervalued opportunities that others might overlook.

Neil Woodford · 3 min · 28 Nov 2024
Macro

Does Valuation Still Matter?

History tells us that elevated valuations often lead to lower returns, yet US equities continue to climb. Are we ignoring hard truths about investing, or has the market rewritten the rules?

Neil Woodford · 5 min · 26 Nov 2024
Macro

A smooth sea never made a skilled sailor

Wild swings in global markets have left investors reeling. Discover what triggered Japan's record plunge and how to navigate such turmoil by focusing on long-term investment strategies.

Neil Woodford · 4 min · 7 Aug 2024
Macro

The OBR: what would Einstein say?

Challenging the reliance on flawed economic forecasts by institutions like the OBR, which consistently misguides government policy and public opinion. Why do we trust projections that so often miss the mark?

Neil Woodford · 5 min · 18 May 2024
Macro

The UK stock market: not damaged goods

This post explores the reasons behind the UK stock market's underperformance over the last decade (or more) and challenges the common belief that economic performance is to blame. We examine deeper causes, such as regulatory and political influences, and show potential for a promising turnaround for UK equities.

Neil Woodford · 2 min · 3 May 2024

Introducing Woodford Views

Welcome to Woodford Views' inaugural post. Join me as I share insights from over 35 years in the investment industry, challenging conventional wisdom and exploring the real data behind economic and market trends.

Neil Woodford · 4 min · 14 Apr 2024