# The $300bn IPO wave and why the feeding frenzy is over

_A $300bn wave of AI-related IPOs, a cautious read on a rally that has run hard since April, and a contrarian case for why UK interest rates will stay on hold into 2027._

Neil Woodford · 5 June 2026 · 5 min read

![This week, Anthropic filed for IPO, joining SpaceX as one of the most anticipated IPOs of the decade to date.](https://cdn.sanity.io/images/v3acfbvo/production/aef6fd051d7d6d5a15a3a711b5242f4985732d22-1920x1080.jpg?w=1600&fit=max&auto=format)

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This has been a week characterised by geopolitical déjà vu. The it's-on-it's-off cycle of peace negotiations between Iran and the US continues and the hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have not stopped despite reassurances from President Trump that an agreement to end them had been agreed. This may of course be the product of the fragmented command-and-control structure of this Iranian proxy, but the ongoing conflict is clearly causing concern about the broader ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US.

Interestingly, though, the oil price has remained well below recent peaks and today it has fallen to just under $95 a barrel (Brent crude) despite the disappointing diplomatic backdrop. Given that in recent weeks it has been a better guide to the shifting probabilities of a deal than the news flow, my guess is that the two sides may be somewhat nearer to an agreement than might at first be assumed. I remain hopeful for the time being.

## Blockbuster AI IPOs

One of the stories that captured my attention this week was the growing global excitement surrounding the IPOs of SpaceX and Anthropic, which will be followed quite quickly by OpenAI, I suspect. These three huge companies are all coming to the market at mind-boggling valuations whilst simultaneously raising substantial chunks of new capital which, along with Alphabet's $85bn equity issue, will amount to about $300bn in total – a lot even for the world's largest capital market. These IPOs come hot on the heels of a spectacular rise in the technology sector and the major AI players in particular, which has added 25% to the NASDAQ index since the beginning of April.

Whether this flurry of IPOs will take the steam out of the market in the near term is a subject of much debate right now. Many commentators remain very bullish despite the scale of new issuance, but I am more cautious. This amazing AI-related rally has inevitably raised investor expectations to a level that even some of the most loved companies will struggle to meet. I should add that I don't believe this is some kind of TMT bubble-bursting event, but what I am suggesting is that the relentlessness of this very recent global market feeding frenzy is over for now.

## UK markets

In the UK, sentiment in financial markets remains focused on events in the Persian Gulf. Interestingly, even on a day when the news is not particularly good, like today, for example, when the equity market is stable and the gilt market is up slightly, it is the oil price move which is having the most influence.

Once we are finally on the other side of this conflict and some form of normality returns, UK financial markets should return to focusing at least in part on the domestic economic situation, which I remain significantly more optimistic about than the consensus.

## UK politics

Meanwhile, the political backdrop remains pretty depressing. The government remains rudderless whilst it is preoccupied with the leadership contest and the outcome of the Makerfield by-election, but the new dynamic this week was more embarrassing revelations from the latest batch of Mandelson communications.

Perhaps the most depressing of all was the transcript of a conversation between Peter Mandelson and the then Starmer cabinet enforcer, Pat McFadden, in May last year, when he complained that 'Every meeting I have is who can we tax in order to pay benefits to others'. For a party that claims to place working families at the core of its agenda, this is an especially damning admission, albeit that it was pretty obvious to anyone paying attention to what the government was actually doing rather than what it was saying.

This revelation reminded me of what Liam Byrne (Gordon Brown's outgoing Chief Secretary to the Treasury) admitted in a note to his Liberal Democrat successor in 2010: 'Dear Chief Secretary, I am afraid there is no money – kind regards and good luck.'

These accidental truths provide a simple but deeply depressing, unvarnished insight into the policy failures of governments and their profligacy with other people's money. One might hope that those in power might learn from these failures, but unfortunately the omens are not good. I suspect the most likely next leader of the Labour Party and the government will remain ideologically blind to the better alternatives and just keep digging in the hole which this administration has already dug for itself.

## Interest rates

Finally, I wanted to leave readers of this weekly update with a slightly more uplifting perspective. Most UK economic commentators and indeed the 'market' expect UK official interest rates to increase this year. Albeit that the pessimism has subsided a little, consensus expectations have gone from four rate rises to just one or two. I still think this consensus is wrong.

The outlook for rates became a topic of discussion this week when Megan Greene, one of the nine members of the MPC, called for a speedy increase in rates to head off what she called 'inflation expectations' at a speech to the University of Derby's business school. My view is that, like so many other unmeasurable academic economic concepts, this should play no part in the rate-setting decision-making process. I suspect there will be many who will disagree with me, but my rationale is quite simple: if you can't accurately measure something and, worse, if it has a very poor record of anticipating real inflation outcomes (which inflation expectations has), then don't use it to inform your decisions.

Fortunately, there are others on the committee, like the governor, who appear to be more pragmatic and are in no hurry to vote for higher rates. As it is, there will be no increase in June because the meeting coincides with the Makerfield by-election and there is no meeting in July, and so the first opportunity to raise rates may come in August, but I suspect that by then the conflict in the Persian Gulf will be over and the oil price somewhat lower. Gas prices, at worst, will be where they were last year, and I suspect that the labour market will have weakened further, so my guess is that there will be no reason to raise at that meeting either.

In summary, I remain of the view that rates in the UK will remain on hold, probably until the end of the year, unless there is an early resolution of the war with Iran and an early decline in the oil price, which then might open the window for a cut later in the year. I still see rates declining materially in 2027 as inflation initially gets back to target and then falls below 2%.

## What to look out for next week

The economic diary is fairly busy next week with important inflation data out in the US on Wednesday and more labour market indicators later in the week (along with those released tomorrow). On Friday, the ONS will release preliminary April GDP data. After a consensus-busting Q1, one might expect a weaker April data point, which would match the pattern of last year. My guess is that the economy has had a bit more momentum than consensus believes, and so the consensus expectation of -0.3% may prove to be too bearish. We will know either way on Friday next week.

The corporate diary is still relatively quiet, thankfully, although a few March year-end companies will be reporting next week, and one or two will pique my interest.