# Roundup of the week: 14 November 2025 _A messy week for markets and politics: UK data that looks weaker on the surface than it really is, a US shutdown finally ending, France limping through its budget, and more signs that the UK economy is quietly strengthening beneath the headlines._ Neil Woodford · 14 November 2025 · 10 min read ![The US government is reopening its agencies after President Donald Trump signed the House-passed funding package last night to end the record 43-day shutdown. The shutdown likely led to a loss of 60,000 private-sector jobs, according to Trump’s top economic adviser.](https://cdn.sanity.io/images/v3acfbvo/production/c439a61070d1887a65a639d989ecb0e34c5aaf0a-5278x3276.jpg?w=1600&fit=max&auto=format) --- **If you think we have missed something you would like to discuss or would like to send in a question for next week's podcast episode,** [**send us an email**](mailto:hello@noisecancelling.co)**.** This has been an interesting week for reasons I will try to explain later in this update. Perhaps of greatest importance have been the macro-economic updates from the UK, which included labour market and GDP data alongside some emerging clarity on what the Chancellor will announce in a little under two weeks. Elsewhere, the US government shutdown came to an end after 43 days. France’s budget is making slow progress through the legislature, but only after major concessions on pension reform. Meanwhile, the COP30 conference in Brazil continued, albeit interestingly, attracting far less attention in the financial media than previous meetings. ## Politics ### US After protracted political horse trading, the longest US government shutdown in history came to an end this week. The deal funds the government through to the end of January and includes full-year funding for various urgent causes, the legislative branch and the Department of Agriculture. The agreement and funding should end the shortage of air-traffic controllers and bring the disrupted domestic air travel situation to a close. It should also allow for the regular publication of economic data, but the missing series may never see the light of day. This is important because the Fed’s rate-setting committee will still have a gap in the information it needs to make an informed decision on rates. My guess is that for the time being, rates in the US will remain on hold until the data starts to give a clearer picture of what’s going on, particularly in the labour market. Looking slightly longer term, I expect the data to continue showing a weaker employment picture, and therefore, rates should continue their downward path in the not-too-distant future. ### UK It’s not been a good week for Keir Starmer, but the fog surrounding what will be in the budget has cleared a little. Although it is still a little early to be too definitive about the headlines, my guess is that the budget will raise taxes, but that the imaginary fiscal hole that the Chancellor will seek to fill, created by the OBR’s absurd productivity forecasts, won’t be as lurid as some have forecast. I expect a little over £20bn to be raised from a series of measures, the most important of which will be a non-indexation of personal allowances, which will raise £10bn, and a 2p increase in the basic rate of income tax and a corresponding 2p cut in employee national insurance, which will raise about £6bn. These changes are designed to increase the tax on income earned from assets, including property, whilst leaving the tax on income from employment unchanged. If I am right, this will be a challenging day for the Chancellor and the government, and it will go down like a bucket of cold sick with the media, commentators, and the electorate. Nevertheless, it will not have a significant impact at all on the outlook for the UK economy (explanation later) ## Economics ### UK It’s been quite an important week for macroeconomic data in the UK. On Tuesday, the ONS published the latest set of labour market data. Once again, the ONS cautioned consumers of the report to treat the data with care, or in other words, the report once again highlighted why the Labour Force Survey in particular should be seen as an unreliable measure of the number of people in work. My conclusions, having read the ONS release, are that it is clear that the labour market is weakening in the UK. This is not wholly the function of job losses, albeit that payrolled employment is down 100,000 YOY. It is also the function of more people returning to the labour force (less inactivity), and so the number of people looking for work is up more than 500,000, and the unemployment rate has risen from 3.5% to 5%. Importantly, (because these are accurately measured) vacancies continued to fall, down 110,000 over the last year. Very strangely, various establishment figures, including Megan Greene, who sits on the MPC, cast doubt on the reliability of the figures and specifically the LFS, but my judgement is that their diagnosis was completely wrong. For example, whilst Megan Greene said that “there are all sorts of complications with the LFS”, Bloomberg stated that “the weakness in the labour market reflected in the data is likely to have been overstated.” My diagnosis of the LFS is the opposite. In my judgement, it is overstating the number of people in work, as evidenced by a comparison between the LFS and the more reliable HMRC data represented by the Real Time Indicators series. It has shown a decline in the number of payrolled employees in 11 of the last 12 months, whereas that part of the LFS has shown consistent increases over the same period. Very odd. Clearly, the journo at Bloomberg didn’t read the ONS release because in it the ONS states “in our view the RTI provides a more reliable read on employees (than the LFS)” Later in the week, the ONS published the latest GDP data. Once again, these data should be treated with care, not least because, as the ONS also admits, they are frequently and significantly revised. Usefully, it provides a guide to what to expect: Early estimates of GDP are subject to revision… the mean absolute revision between the first quarterly estimate and the same one three years later is, on average, plus or minus 0.28%. The release showed that GDP was estimated to have increased by 0.1% in Q3, following growth of 0.3% in the previous quarter, and was below the MPC’s estimate of 0.2%. Predictably, this resulted in much wailing and gnashing of teeth. The media variously described this slowdown as bad news for the Chancellor, grim reading, disappointing, etc, etc. Once again, the reality is somewhat different. Examining the ONS’s expenditure data provides a much clearer picture of what’s actually happening. The three key components of the economy, government consumption, household expenditure and investment spending together delivered growth of 0.5% in Q3, up from 0.4% in Q2. Interestingly, in Q3, investment spending grew by a bumper 1.8%. So, looking behind the headline, the three key components of the economy actually accelerated in Q3. What dragged the numbers back was once again an erratic and large fall in something called “acquisitions less disposals”, which in the ONS release is contained in something called Gross capital formation: other, which includes “changes in inventories and acquisitions less disposals of assets, as well as the expenditure alignment adjustment.” I have tried to understand what this is, and unfortunately, it’s not at all clear. The best I can come up with is that it is described as the net change in the value of a specific category of non-financial assets held as a store of value, such as gold, diamonds, or art. In other words, in my opinion, it has nothing to do with the underlying and measurable activity in the economy. Returning to the data, if we focus solely on the three key elements of government, households, and investment, the economy accelerated in Q3, not decelerated as the headline data initially indicated. Here is a helpful chart from the ONS release that summarises what happened in Q3. ![Roundup of the week: 14 November 2025](https://cdn.sanity.io/images/v3acfbvo/production/bfe33d7d6c3aa697953ae34b1109f30e5cbf8f03-930x799.png?w=1600&fit=max&auto=format) One final point worth making is that, after looking at the labour market and GDP data, a picture is beginning to emerge of businesses (and the government) investing in capital (AI, plant and equipment, ICT, etc) and, at the margin, shedding labour. To me, this is starting to look like the early impact of the AI industrial revolution rolling out across the private and public sectors. In other words, the start of a productivity revolution, something in which the OBR clearly doesn’t believe. ### China China has today released some disappointing economic data. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, fixed asset investment in the ten months to the end of October fell by 1.7% and industrial production increased by only 4.9% YOY, the slowest rate of growth this year. The median forecast for this series was 5.5%, so this reading is somewhat below expectations. Given that the property market remains depressed and consumption growth is anaemic, these data will be seen as very disappointing by the Chinese government, and I suspect will lead to further stimulus measures in the future. ## Markets After a relatively strong start to the week, global bond and equity markets have experienced a wobbly few days. In the UK, ongoing budget rumours reported in the FT have had a negative effect this morning in both the gilt and equity markets, where the sectors that have led the market up in recent weeks are falling the most. It’s also been quite a busy week again for the companies I follow. Here I will report on the most significant corporate announcements. ### Infineon Infineon’s full-year results met consensus expectations, despite what it described as challenging conditions. In its outlook statement, the company highlighted that growth momentum in its traditional automotive, industrial, and consumer markets is expected to be modest in 2026, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in these markets. However, the statement generated some excitement because it went on to say that global investment in AI infrastructure is continuing to rise rapidly (as we know) and that this is driving “considerable” growth in demand for its leading power supply solutions for AI data centres. This statement attracted a lot of attention and reminded investors that this business is a broader play on the AI industrial revolution than many might have realised. For example, Jefferies estimates that this division will double in 2026 (it has a 30-40% share of this market) and grow at a compound rate of 25%pa through to the end of the decade. ### Marshalls Marshalls, the leading UK building materials business, released a trading update for the ten months to the end of October. The statement was reassuring in that it guided the market to expect its previous guidance to be met for the full year to the end of December. Although the statement noted the challenging current trading environment, it highlighted stabilisation in its leading landscaping products division and good growth in building and roofing products. The CEO concluded the statement by saying that the business is well-positioned to benefit from a market recovery and the broader structural drivers that underpin the business. I expect the recovery to gather momentum in 2026 as the UK economy grows more strongly, particularly with lower interest rates. ### Taylor Wimpey Taylor Wimpey also released a ten-month trading update, which I found reassuring. However, it didn’t meet with a positive market reaction. The statement reiterated that the business expects to meet its guidance and anticipates additional outlet openings in 2026. Although the statement was couched in a cautious tone, it highlighted some of the medium-term drivers, not least the benefits that should flow from the planning reforms enshrined in the Planning and Infrastructure Bill. In the short term, however, the fundamental drivers of a strong recovery in the business will be lower interest rates and robust underlying economic growth, which is expected to become evident in 2026. ### Persimmon In a very similar vein to Taylor Wimpey, Persimmon provided a trading update for the ten-month period. If anything, the narrative was more upbeat, as the CEO highlighted the embedded growth in the business from additional outlet openings and the scope to increase margins, returns, and shareholder value over the medium term. Good summary IMO. ## What to look out for next week At last, we will start to receive some up-to-date data from the US economy. Whether it will give the clarity the Fed needs or not is too early to call, but a return to near normality will be very welcome. In the UK, we receive inflation data for October on Wednesday, which will be important in the context of the upcoming budget on the 26th and, of course, the MPC rate decision on 18th December. Once again, there will be numerous sets of results to keep track of, including those from companies I follow, such as British Land and JD Sports. ## PS Today, there is yet another twist and turn in the pre-budget speculation merry-go-round. This time, it appears that the Chancellor’s plan to raise income tax and cut employee NI (which raises about £6bn) has been abandoned under pressure from Labour backbenchers. On the one hand, this is not surprising, given that it broke a key manifesto pledge. On the other hand, given that it had been leaked and confirmed by the Westminster rumour mill and in briefings, it appears incredibly weak and once again confirms the administration’s lack of conviction. Understandably, this has not been well received by UK financial markets, which are having a hissy fit today, but I don’t expect it to last. Ultimately, it appears that the Chancellor is committed to following the OBR’s economic projections and will therefore raise something close to £20bn. This late change of tack will mean that other measures will be adjusted (I suspect reliefs in particular), but I remain of the view that this will not undermine the trajectory of the UK economy, which will deliver growth close to 1.5% in 2025 and accelerate to over 2% in 2026.