# Roundup of the week: 1 August 2025 _A week packed with political and economic news, including a major US-EU trade deal struck at Trump’s Turnberry visit, more global tariff action, and signs of growing pressure on UK regulators. Meanwhile, markets welcomed dovish tones from the Fed and a raft of strong company results across banks, biotech, and brickmakers._ Neil Woodford · 1 August 2025 · 17 min read ![President Trump shakes hands with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Turnberry, Scotland, where they finalized a landmark trade agreement setting a 15% tariff on most EU exports — averting a threatened 30% rate and securing billions in energy and investment commitments.](https://cdn.sanity.io/images/v3acfbvo/production/44f3e987ea2001b7e28b69e453c3a8c8b458fd41-1099x687.jpg?w=1600&fit=max&auto=format) --- This week’s roundup is rather long. There is just so much going on in politics, economics, and the markets at the moment, but I have tried to keep things as succinct as possible. If you think I have missed something you would like to discuss, [please let me know](mailto:hello@noisecancelling.co), and I will give you my view. ## Politics ### Trump and Turnberry Even whilst Donald Trump was supposed to be taking time out to play golf, it appears he had the energy to conduct important trade discussions. This time, whilst the President was in Scotland over the weekend, following a meeting with the EU Commission President, a trade deal was concluded with the EU, which on the face of it looks like a comprehensive victory for the US economy. After threatening the EU with a punishing and disruptive tariff rate of 30%, which would have come into effect later this week, an agreement has been reached at a tariff rate of 15% (rather than the current 4.8%). The EU has also agreed to buy $750bn of energy from the US (LNG and oil) and committed to a $600bn investment pledge. Quite how these will be measured and monitored is not yet clear, but on the face of it, the US President has got everything he wanted. So much so that across Europe, political leaders are already describing the deal as a “dark day” for Europe. If this agreement is to be followed by a comprehensive deal with China (apparently fruitful discussions between the two parties are currently underway in Sweden), the most important deals will have been completed, and the net result looks, so far, to be very favourable to the global economy’s consumer of “last resort”. ![Roundup of the week: 1 August 2025](https://cdn.sanity.io/images/v3acfbvo/production/775e4ac04715b38df97a5c426edd1a0427940e72-790x780.png?w=1600&fit=max&auto=format) Whilst many commentators are critical of where this leaves US tariffs in relation to the last 100 years of economic history, and some are predicting damaging consequences for “the entire global trading system”, I have to say that in an attempt to be as objective as possible, President Trump seems to have achieved what he set out to do months ago by leveraging US economic power to extract more favourable terms of trade from those countries and economic blocks that have benefitted most from US consumer heft. In the process, he also seems to have generated hundreds of billions for the state coffers, which is meaningful even for an economy the size of the US. ![Roundup of the week: 1 August 2025](https://cdn.sanity.io/images/v3acfbvo/production/134de60ce7aee26c61372a69ff935300e758db2e-816x496.png?w=1600&fit=max&auto=format) ### Trump and tariffs Trump’s rapid-fire announcements on tariffs continued in the second half of this week as the August 1st deadline approaches. In summary, despite what appeared to be a warm engagement with Prime Minister Modi earlier in the year in the Oval Office, it appears that the President is now unhappy with India’s historic trade barriers and indeed with its military and energy ties with Russia and has announced that there will be a 25% tariff on imports from India. However, this announcement was followed by the statement that the two sides are still in negotiations, so this may not be the final word on this particular case. Elsewhere, Trump also announced a deal with South Korea that looks very much like the deal struck with Japan. South Korea will pay a 15% tariff on exports to the US, and importantly, this rate includes cars. South Korea has also committed to buying $100bn of US energy and investing a large sum of money into the US economy ($350bn). Finally, it appears that Brazil has attracted the particular ire of the US President. The US has announced a 40% tariff on the Country’s exports to the US and imposed sweeping financial sanctions on its supreme court judge, trying its former president Jair Bolsonaro. Once again, it appears as if Trump got what he wanted from these important deals, but the longer-term economic implications are not yet clear. Many “establishment” economists are bearish about the impact these tariff agreements will have on US inflation and global trade. Whether this reflects a balanced appraisal of this completely new economic environment or a predetermined dislike of anything that gets in the way of free trade is not clear to me. But there are a few important points that are reasonably clear. Decades of globalisation and “free” trade may well have benefitted many economies around the world, including the US consumer, but in common with most things in economics, they have also caused harm. For example, the hollowing out of the US manufacturing industry, consequent job losses and rising income inequality alongside large and persistent trade deficits have created major political challenges in the US, which ultimately played a significant part in helping Trump win twice. ### Reeves vs Bailey – apparently no contest! This particular political development has not received much attention, but I think it is very important because once again, it highlights where real power resides in the UK. The context here is that Rachael Reeves had wanted to secure a three-way meeting between Treasury officials, the Bank of England’s Prudential Regulatory Authority and executives from Revolut, with the objective of ironing out the issues that have so far prevented Revolut from becoming fully authorised as a bank here in the UK and paving the way for a listing of the fintech in London. Interestingly, Andrew Bailey has apparently intervened to stop this meeting going ahead on the grounds that the Bank’s regulation should be independent from political interventions and comes hot on the heels of Bailey’s decision to distance himself from comments Rachael Reeves made in her recent Mansion House speech in which she described some regulation as “a boot on the neck of business”. I would imagine that the Chancellor is not best pleased with the head of the Bank of England after this quite public rebuke of the second most important politician in the Country. However, what this event does touch on in microcosm, is something Liz Truss has talked about at length, which is the power of unelected elites over elected politicians and the more widespread subjugation of parliament. Maybe in this instance, Bailey is right to stand up for the independence of the Bank from political interference, following mounting pressure on the FED Chairman, Jerome Powell, in the US to cut interest rates. But the net result is that in a competitive world where regulatory arbitrage is alive and kicking, Revolut’s co-founder, Nik Storonsky, has said that he doesn’t see the point of a UK IPO due to the “UK’s regulatory regime”. So once again, the UK loses out, London’s equity market misses out on a scaled IPO, but we can all congratulate ourselves on the robustness of our regulators. When I think about our peer economies, like France for example or even the US, my guess is that this situation would have been handled very differently and am left concluding that in our desire to demonstrate both the robustness and independence of UK regulators, whether it’s of financial services or any other industry, we have lost sight of the need to strike the right balance between regulation and growth where there is always a trade-off which this particular incident highlights very well. ## Economics There are going to be some important announcements later in the week, not least the FED’s decision on interest rates, but I want to make one small apology here. I have said in previous updates that if the FED didn’t cut rates in July, it would be more likely to do so at the August meeting. What I have got wrong is that the next FED meeting after this week is not until September 17th; there is no meeting in August. Nevertheless, the same comment applies to the September meeting. ### US GDP and interest rates On Tuesday this week, US GDP data for Q2 was released. The annualised growth rate in Q2 bounced back from the import distortions in Q1 when the economy contracted by 0.5% annualised, showing annualised growth of 3%. However, this time, the distortion of the data was caused by a collapse in imports. Although this outcome was better than consensus expectations, at an underlying level, the economy was slightly weaker in terms of consumer spending and business investment, and this will undoubtedly have informed the thinking of the FED committee in its deliberations on interest rates (see below) ### FED’s interest rate decision Following the GDP data, the FED announced its policy rate decision late on Wednesday. In line with consensus expectations, rates were held for the fifth straight meeting, but, importantly, because the accompanying FED statement was interpreted as being more dovish than was expected, there is now an increased likelihood of a cut at the next meeting in September. In summary, unusually, two FED governors dissented from the hold decision, and in the commentary on the economic outlook, Powell said that “growth had moderated” in the first half of the year. He also added that the committee believed that there were downside risks to the labour market ahead and that the inflationary consequences of Trump’s tariffs remained uncertain. Although financial markets got what they had anticipated from this meeting, it is increasingly likely that US interest rates will start to fall again in September, and the US equity market should generally welcome that. ## Markets The results season has kicked off in earnest, and there have already been many announcements from the companies I follow. ### Wuxi AppTech Wuxi announced extremely good interim results for the six months to the end of June and raised revenue guidance for the full year. In summary, the key points were that revenue in the first six months was some 5% above consensus, as was net income, which more than doubled. Revenue guidance for the full year was increased to a range of 13-17% with especially good growth forecast from the US market. Wuxi is increasingly being seen as a major beneficiary of easing trade and political tension between the US and China, and this positive backdrop is enhanced by a trading performance that keeps exceeding expectations. The shares rose on the back of the results by over 11%. ### Exelixis Exelixis released its 2Q results this afternoon. The shares fell on the numbers based on a very modest headline revenue miss. Underlying numbers were very good, with net product revenues in the six months up 19%, total operating expenses down just under 2% YOY, and the EPS result appears to be above expectations. In addition, guidance for the full year is unchanged. In the statement, the CEO confirmed good progress with a recent drug launch and following good recent topline results in a key Phase III cancer trial, good progress towards the launch of this drug in the market later in the year. It is hard to understand the mid-teens fall in the share price, but it might simply be the result of some selling following a reasonable run in the share price over the last six months, compared with a generally moribund sector. ### Barclays Last week’s good numbers from Lloyds and NatWest were followed by Barclays’ interim results earlier this week. Profit before tax was a very healthy 11% ahead of consensus, driven by better-than-expected net interest income and fees (non-interest income) and significantly lower impairments. In particular, Barclays’ investment banking business performed well during the quarter, with an especially strong result from its fixed income, currencies and commodities, and equities businesses. Barclays’ forecast for 2026 of a ROTE above 12% now looks more than achievable, making the share’s significant discount to 2026’s tangible net asset value estimate of just over 450p look anomalous. ### HSBC The UK’s largest bank also reported its Q2 results this week. Once again, in common with the domestic banks that have already announced, the results were well ahead of consensus (by 10%) on the back of strong revenue growth. HSBC is a much larger business than any of the domestically focused banks and clearly has significant exposures to geographies outside the UK. Across the board, the business is performing well, and despite higher property-related provisions in Hong Kong, it saw good growth in new customers there. Perhaps the most impressive number amongst a plethora of data is the 10% increase in the Bank’s tangible net asset value per share YOY, despite the payment of a very healthy dividend and ongoing share buyback, with an additional $3bn announced with these numbers. Finally, reflecting the strong underlying performance across the board, the ROTE in Q2 was a very healthy 17.7%. The bank trades at 1.4x Q2 tangible book value per share, which looks too low for this rate of return. ### Forterra Forterra released surprisingly good numbers earlier this week, resulting in a nearly 10% increase in the share price on the day. The results were ahead of expectations and reflected a really good underlying performance from the business, which gained market share over the first six months of the year. In fact, first-half sales were over 20% up YOY, a number driven principally by very good volume growth. The business guided to a better-than-expected full-year outcome and a return to a more normal dividend policy after two years of constrained distributions. Given that the volume housebuilders have yet to commit to significant completion growth, this is a very encouraging announcement from Forterra at the start of what I expect to be sustained growth in the brick market over the next two to three years. ### Paragon The specialist buy-to-let lender announced its Q3 results this week. Although the share price fell, the results themselves were once again very good and full-year guidance was maintained. The fall in share price probably had more to do with the fact that the shares have performed well so far this year than anything contained in the announcement. This very high-quality business continues to grow modestly, has a highly efficient and low-cost infrastructure, and an enviable track record. It trades on a slightly higher price to book (1.5x) than the “high street” lenders, but guides to achieving a very attractive 15-20% ROTE over time. ### Card Factory Card Factory announced this week that it had acquired funkypigeon.com from WH Smith for £24mn (EV/EBITDA of 5x). The market took this deal well because the financial terms were attractive, and the acquisition will significantly improve Card Factory’s existing digital strategy, which has hitherto been slightly underwhelming. The announcement states that the deal will be earnings enhancing in the year to January 2027 (so effectively the next full financial year) and that annual synergy benefits of more than £5mn will be derived from integrating/optimising manufacturing and fulfilment and their respective tech platforms. This announcement was accompanied by a trading update, which was also reassuring and guided to mid-to-high single-digit percentage growth in both sales and adjusted PBT. ### Taylor Wimpey Taylor Wimpey has announced its interim results. Although the share price has fallen 5% on the back of the numbers, I find them to be reassuring. At an underlying level, the business is performing bang in line with consensus and TW’s previous guidance, and crucially, with respect to completions, average selling price expectations, and build cost inflation. The “disappointment” is the product of an unexpected £20mn charge relating to remediation work on an historic site. Clearly, the business is currently constrained by issues relating to affordability, given the current UK interest rates and the regulatory constraints on banks’ ability to provide high loan-to-value mortgages. However, once they start to fall and mortgage costs come down, the recovery in the new housing market can get going, and I expect this process to commence quite soon, given that interest rates should be cut at the August MPC meeting. ### Mercedes Benz Mercedes announced its Q2 results this week. As previously flagged, they were impacted by the ongoing price war in China and the 27.5% tariffs on exports to the US that prevailed throughout Q2. In common with other manufacturers, this difficult Q2 has resulted in downgrades for the full-year outcome. Nevertheless, Mercedes has guided to margins (4-6%) on cars and vans (8-10%) that are in line with expectations. This set of results should mark the bottom of Mercedes-Benz’s fortunes, and looking to the medium-term future, I expect the company to deliver much better operational and financial performance. In the meantime, the balance sheet net cash position of Euros 30.4bn (over 60% of the market capitalisation) underwrites the cash return story that should continue to underpin the share price. This gigantic cash pile means that Mercedes’ EV is a mere Euros 14.4bn, less than 1x this year’s forecast (depressed) EBITDA. ### Altria and BAT Both these tobacco businesses reported their Q2 results this week. Altria, a US company, produced numbers that were taken well and were perceived as being above expectations, especially at the EPS level. At an operating level, both smokeable and oral tobacco products performed well (Altria’s e-cigarette brands are sold through its wholly owned subsidiary NJOY), margins were above expectations and guidance for the full year at the EPS level was upgraded. BAT’s results were also taken well and were slightly above expectations at the sales and EBIT lines. Strategically, BAT is embarking on a transition towards a smoke-free dominant product portfolio, and there is plenty of evidence in this update that the business is making good progress towards this target. There was good underlying performance in the US, more progress on deleveraging the balance sheet, and finally, an upgrade to the important share buyback for 2025 to £1.1bn. ### Standard Chartered In common with other UK-listed banks and indeed with CommerzBank, Standard has announced better-than-expected Q2 numbers. Indeed, “clean” pretax profits in Q2 were some 26% ahead of expectations. Notable features were lower credit costs and better-than-expected pre-provision profits. In summary, tangible net asset value per share grew 16% YOY, the core equity tier 1 capital ratio is at 14.3%, and ROTE was an outstanding 18% in the quarter. The shares trade on 1.1x spot tangible book value per share, which still seems to be anomalously low. ### Schroders The UK fund management business Schroders reported its first-half figures this morning. Encouragingly, the numbers were ahead of expectations, driven principally by better-than-expected costs and better-than-expected net new money under management. Going forward, the business has committed to further significant cost reductions and is expected to achieve a target of £150mn in annualised cost savings by 2027. This should continue to underwrite improving financial results and potentially modest future increases in the distribution. ### Next This outstandingly well-run business has once again upgraded expectations for its full-year results in its latest City update. In a Q2 trading statement, the business reports that Next full price sales were up 10.5% YOY, significantly ahead of its previous guidance of 6.5%. The business saw outperformance in both the UK and in its international businesses, and in a typically very transparent and helpful statement, the CEO highlights, first, that good UK weather will have helped Next’s trading performance in the first half but also that it will have benefitted from M&S’s woes following its well-publicised cyber-attack, which left it unable to sell clothes or furniture online for seven weeks. As a result of the better-than-expected trading performance, Next has also upgraded its profit guidance for the full year by a further £25mn. ### New River This midcap retail property business has released its first quarter trading update, which is very encouraging. The CEO states that the business has made “an excellent” start to the new financial year, which began in April, highlighting that consumer spending growth in its retail parks and community shopping centres (6.7%) continues to outperform the national average (4.5%). The business also highlighted a successful asset disposal in the first quarter for nearly £60mn, which has boosted cash resources and reduced the balance sheet LTV. ### BMW BMW has announced its Q2 results, hot on the heels of Mercedes-Benz, which released its figures earlier in the week. Like its close peer, BMW has been impacted by the price war in China, a difficult home market across Europe and very high tariffs on exports to the US. Nevertheless, the business has performed very well against this backdrop and delivered an auto margin in line with consensus, but much higher than expected cash flow, reflecting lower investment spending. Looking forward, the confidence in the new class of BMW EVs, combined with easing trade tension and tariffs, means that this year should mark the bottom of BMW’s operational performance. ### Sarepta Sarepta, which I have been writing about for the last three weeks, released another update this week, which resulted in a significant increase in the share price. On this occasion, the company announced that the FDA had reversed a decision to stop the company supplying its key therapy, Elevidys, for ambulatory Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy patients, which had caused an uproar in political circles and amongst patient advocacy groups. This reversal means that the company can resume making the drug available for these patients, a key development for the business and one that apparently secures its future. This is an important development in the context of what happened last week when several leading analysts suggested that the business had no economic value following the FDA’s original decision. The story doesn’t end here, though. Following this rapid reversal of a decision that had profound implications for patients as well as for the company, and indeed, as some have argued, for the entire industry, the key decision maker at the FDA (Vinay Prasad) who took the decision, resigned after only four months in the post. His appointment and resignation have attracted a lot of attention, not least because he was perceived as someone who was not permissive of innovation, and that his more conservative attitude was a negative for the industry. His resignation has therefore been seen as a positive for the whole biotech sector. ### Ionis Ionis released its Q2 numbers this week. In summary, they were significantly better than consensus had expected and resulted in a significant increase to the full year’s revenue guidance. The business also announced good progress on key development programmes, with results in a number of crucial late-stage trials expected in the second half of the year. In summary, revenue doubled in Q2 YOY and was up 70% on the first half of last year on the back of a very successful launch of its first independently launched therapeutic. ### Apellis Apellis announced its Q2 results on Thursday. The US market also took these well, and they showcased good product revenue and great business progress following the very recent FDA approval of Empaveli, developed by Apellis for the treatment of patients twelve years and older with C3G and primary IC-MPGN, two severe, rare, autoimmune-related kidney diseases. ## What to look out for next week The most important announcements next week as far as the companies I follow are concerned come on Thursday with the release of the MPC’s UK interest rate decision (made on Wednesday) and US labour market data. As far as the UK rate decision is concerned, I expect the Committee to cut rates to 4.0% and will be very disappointed if they refuse to budge from what are currently stupidly high rates in the UK. There is a very small chance of a 50bps cut despite that fact that this would be entirely appropriate in my opinion. We will have to wait and see. As for company results, it will be another crazy week with literally hundreds of important announcements. I will attempt to keep you informed of the most important ones which directly or indirectly affect the companies I follow.