Britain isn't broken

Treasury yields are back at 4.7% and the commentary has turned apocalyptic. Forty-five years of Fed funds and Treasury data say the yield curve is doing nothing unusual.

Slowing private sector pay, mythical price gouging and a cost of living crisis that isn't – what yesterday's labour market data actually reveals.

A friend asked me why markets are so buoyant when everything seems so bad. It was a good question, and the answer is sitting in the UK investment data almost nobody reported this week.

The economy grew when almost nobody expected it to. The interesting part is what that does to a consensus sitting below 1%.

Last week I argued that the inequality story being used to soften us up for the next round of tax rises doesn't survive contact with the data. The natural next question is who actually pays.

Is UK wealth inequality actually rising? Wes Streeting calls inequality "the fracture running through modern Britain", and the coming budget leans on the same story. Neil Woodford has spent weeks in the data, and it says something very different.

A Hormuz deal that keeps almost arriving, Brent back at $80, and a UK lending dataset saying something very different from the forecasts built on top of it.

Food prices have fallen this year and supermarket forecourts sell the cheapest fuel in the country. Blaming the supermarkets for the cost of the Iran war is political deflection, if not outright dishonesty.

The UK has announced $59 billion of data centre investment since 2023, and the National Grid cannot power it. 140 data centres are sitting in the connection queue asking for 50GW; the UK's peak demand this year was 45GW. In this episode of Noise Cancelling, Jon explains how the grid connection queue actually works, and Neil Woodford explains why he believes this is an energy policy failure decades in the making.

A year after its £51bn black hole quietly evaporated, the NIESR is back with a £24bn sequel and an inflation forecast to match. I think it will be just as wrong – and just as damaging.

Missiles in the Red Sea, missed numbers from the Mag7 and a maxed-out credit card in Downing Street – yet the week's most telling data were a blowout UK retail sales number and a stock market busy buying itself.

A new Prime Minister, the same script. If Mr Burnham asked me how to get the UK growing again, here is what I would tell him – keeping everything simple.

UK prices have split cleanly in two since 2000. Heavily regulated goods and services have skyrocketed while competitive markets have dropped in price. Can the explanation really be that simple?

UK stocks are being taken private at a record pace: this year, takeover bids for London-listed companies have run at roughly £60bn against under £600m raised in new IPOs, and Neil Woodford argues that this wave of M&A is the clearest sign in years that UK equities are undervalued. In this episode, Woodford and Jon Adair break down why the FTSE and London stock market trade at such a deep discount to the US, what a 75% takeover premium reveals about UK share prices, whether British stocks are cheap or a value trap, and where Woodford sees value across UK banks, oil and housebuilders.

Why this government's fiscal incontinence has left it unable to fund defence, and what a real growth revolution would look like.

UK consumers are defying the bears – again.

As policymakers warn of doom, the data tells a different story. Neil takes apart the MPC, the IMF and the Chancellor in light of an April inflation print that undercuts the consensus case for caution.

UK inflation has surprised to the downside, gilt spreads have compressed, and Rachel Reeves' food price intervention collapsed within 24 hours. Neil Woodford on why the MPC hawks are wrong and why deflation, not inflation, is the medium-term story.

Issue one of our new monthly economic briefing from the desk of Neil's favourite economist. UK growth picked up to 0.6% in Q1 2026 and, with the labour market soft and wage pressures easing, in our view Bank Rate is likely to stay at 3.75% and resume a downward path once the energy shock unwinds.

This week the press is unanimous: Britain is uniquely badly positioned, the IMF says so, and the 30-year gilt yield at 5.8% is proof. The Times, the Telegraph and the FT have all run the same story.

Neil Woodford argues the media's 30-year gilt yield panic doesn't stand up to scrutiny, and that Labour's leadership turmoil will matter little to the UK economy.

Forget China. The biggest economic imbalance in the world right now is between America and Europe. In 2008, the EU was the same size as the US. Today it is 41% smaller.

The sharpest UK retail sales decline in over 40 years has just confirmed what Neil warned about on the podcast: the Bank of England's inflation fears were wrong, and the MPC should be cutting.

Every major UK forecaster — the IMF, Capital Economics, EY Item Club, KPMG — has downgraded Britain's growth for 2026 and blamed the energy shock. Neil Woodford thinks every one of them is wrong. Not about the numbers. About the diagnosis.

Forecasters from the IMF to the EY Item Club keep being outpaced by the data. Neil Woodford on why the UK economic outlook is nowhere near as grim as the consensus insists — and why the IPSOS optimism index just hit a fifty-year low anyway.

The S&P 500 hits a new all-time high just three weeks after flirting with a correction, while the IMF pencils in its worst-case scenario. Neil explains why the markets are reading the Gulf war — and the UK economy — more accurately than the forecasters, as Hormuz reopens and a peace deal moves into view.

In five weeks, UK markets went from pricing rate cuts to pricing four rate hikes. The word stagflation is on every front page. But did anything in the underlying economy actually change — or did a five-week war make everyone forget what was already happening?

The UK has the highest industrial electricity prices in the developed world. British factories pay four times more than American ones. And Britain just banned exploration in the same North Sea basin where Norway is actively drilling.

UK unemployment just hit a five-year high. But hidden in the data is a £1.3 trillion consumer story that the Bank of England, the MPC and consensus economics are completely ignoring. Here's why it matters if you invest in UK stocks.

A quiet week by recent standards — but possibly the calm before the storm, with a US strike on Iran looking increasingly likely. Meanwhile, a raft of UK economic data on labour markets, inflation, retail sales and government borrowing all point in the same direction.

The housing minister's interview in the FT reveals a profound lack of understanding of private enterprise, supply and demand, and the real reasons behind Britain's depressed housing market. The facts tell a very different story to the one Matthew Pennycook is selling.

Difficult week, but the factors that matter for UK assets — falling inflation, lower rates ahead, better growth than expected — remain intact. The MPC is an embarrassment, but rates are coming down regardless. US tech valuations will continue to face pressure.

Markets enjoyed a quieter week, but with a US naval force heading towards Iran, the calm may not last. Meanwhile, the consensus remains far too gloomy on UK growth - inflation is heading to 2% in April and yet the MPC will probably find some reason to keep rates at 3.75%. As for the "death of the dollar" headlines? We've heard it all before. Another Corporal Fraser moment.

Geopolitics once again dominated the week, with unrest in Iran, renewed questions over energy supply, and growing concern about political interference in US monetary policy. Despite the noise, the underlying economic data in both the US and UK continues to surprise to the upside, reinforcing the case for lower inflation, falling interest rates, and stronger growth than most forecasters expect in 2026.

In December, Neil published his 2026 outlook, calling for 2% UK growth while the consensus predicted just 1%. This week, the FT polled 103 economists — two-thirds expect even MORE tax rises due to "persistently weak growth."

A year-end act of economic “letting go”. From productivity myths and phantom fiscal black holes to gloomy forecasters and broken models, this is a reminder of just how wrong the consensus repeatedly was.

Neil Woodford’s 2026 economic outlook: insights on global growth, market trends, and challenges across the US, China, Europe, and the UK.

Neil walks through his big calls for 2026: the AI industrial revolution, whether China is really “uninvestable”, why he thinks the EU is still a story of missed opportunities, the hidden fragilities in the US, and why he believes the consensus on the UK remains far too gloomy.

The headlines painted this Budget as a turning point. I don’t think it is. This piece looks past the political theatre to what the Budget actually means for UK growth, gilts and equities over the next few years.

Markets bounced back this week, the UK budget landed with fewer surprises than expected, and—despite the political theatre—nothing in the Chancellor’s plans alters my upbeat outlook for 2026 and beyond.

Rachel Reeves' second UK Budget as Chancellor might have been the most leaked Budget in history, but will her economic policy and change to taxes actually work? Neil Woodford and I discuss what she actually did, what she could have done and what the impact of her changes will be on the UK economy and the UK stockmarket.

This week’s Budget is being sold on the back of a “black hole” in the public finances, blamed on Tory mismanagement, Brexit, Liz Truss and weak productivity. In reality, the problem is the scale of government spending and a set of fundamentally flawed productivity forecasts from the OBR. Those forecasts are now being used to justify around £20bn of tax rises that were never necessary – and which, in my view, still won’t stop the UK economy from surprising on the upside.

Is AI really a bubble? Is the UK economy broken with a huge “black hole” that forces Rachel Reeves to raise taxes? Is Bitcoin finally dead after the latest crash? In this episode of Noise Cancelling, Neil Woodford takes on the doom-mongers and explains what’s actually going on – and what it means for investors.

A weak week for markets, a 30% drop in Bitcoin, and yet more pre-budget chaos in Westminster – but beneath the noise, falling inflation, likely rate cuts and solid corporate news continue to support my positive view on the outlook.

The latest labour market data reveal a weakening jobs picture, falling wage growth and an almost certain December rate cut — all while the ONS’s flawed surveys continue to cloud the true state of the workforce.

The OBR’s “productivity crisis” is being used to justify tax rises on the basis of numbers that are little more than guesswork, while old-fashioned monetary indicators are quietly signalling that something much more positive is happening in the UK economy.

A messy week for markets and politics: UK data that looks weaker on the surface than it really is, a US shutdown finally ending, France limping through its budget, and more signs that the UK economy is quietly strengthening beneath the headlines.

Brexit remains the favourite excuse for Britain’s problems — but the evidence tells a different story. I argue that the UK’s economic performance since leaving the EU shows no sign of the supposed “Brexit damage” so often cited by politicians and the OBR.

Neil Woodford calls out Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' ‘expectation management’ speech ahead of the UK Budget — arguing that Britain’s economic problems aren’t caused by low taxes, Brexit or Liz Truss’s mini-Budget, but by record government spending. In this week’s episode, Neil dissects every claim from Rachel Reeves and exposes what he calls “the big lie” about Britain’s economy.

Markets steady, politics chaotic — from the UK’s pre-budget theatrics to France’s budget turmoil and America’s endless shutdown. Yet beneath the noise, growth momentum is building and company results are quietly reassuring.

Trump’s Asia trip produced a long-awaited truce in the US–China trade conflict — a win for markets and a sign of easing global tension. Meanwhile, UK economic data continues to improve despite pre-budget gloom, with inflation, retail sales, and borrowing figures all beating expectations. The tone of results season remains upbeat, led by strong bank and tech earnings, and confidence is building that rate cuts may soon follow.

Is Brexit really dragging down Britain’s economy and the stock market, or is there more to the story? Valuations in the UK stock market are low so is now the right time to invest?

Markets have settled, inflation is easing, and the data continues to confound the pessimists. This week saw better-than-expected figures from the UK, an imminent Fed rate cut in the US, and solid results from the major UK banks. Meanwhile, the media’s obsession with fiscal “black holes” rolls on — but the evidence still doesn’t support it.

I’ve said it before, but it bears repeating — the ONS’s productivity data simply doesn’t make sense. According to its latest figures, UK manufacturers are hiring more people to produce less, and the labour market is supposedly booming while productivity stagnates. None of this aligns with reality. The data is broken, yet it remains the foundation for critical economic forecasts and policy decisions.

Is it better to buy the bubble or miss the boom? Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s major market developments. In this episode, they discuss the implications of high valuations on future returns, the performance of Neil's Top 40 investment strategy, and the significance of accurate productivity data in the UK.

Another turbulent week in global politics and markets — from France’s deepening crisis and the US government shutdown to the ONS’s latest data mishap and the ongoing debate around AI market excesses.

Once again, the data tell a very different story from the one the media insists on repeating. The UK is not “going bust” — it’s growing faster, investing more, and performing far better than the consensus narrative allows. Yet the Chancellor risks basing policy on flawed forecasts from institutions that can’t even measure the present accurately.

Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s major market developments. In this episode, is an AI bubble forming? Neil unpacks the hype and reality of AI’s economic impact as well as how he's positioned the W4.0 strategies to benefit from the AI industrial revolution without having to accept ludicrous valuations. We also discuss the likelihood that the UK will need an IMF bailout.

The US shutdown rattles politics but not markets, while the UK’s economic revisions expose staggering ONS failings. Company highlights include Card Factory’s dividend hike and Paypoint’s breakthrough deal with Royal Mail.

August’s borrowing data disappointed on the surface, but anomalies in local authority revisions and VAT receipts suggest the picture is far less grim than the headlines. The OBR expects stronger numbers in the second half of the fiscal year.

In this episode, Neil gives his view on the latest central bank rate decisions from the Fed and the Bank of England. We also cover US-China trade relations, with insights into the implications of TikTok’s deal, NVIDIA’s AI chip restrictions and how US investment in the UK could impact the economy and why caution is still advised despite a promising announcement.

The UK’s fiscal debate has been hijacked by flawed forecasts and media scaremongering. Neil argues the OBR’s models are unreliable, the media’s narrative self-defeating, and that real-world evidence points to stronger growth, rising productivity, and no need for further tax hikes.

Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s most significant market stories. In this episode, Neil shares his insights on Merck’s decision to halt its billion-pound research centre in London, central bank rate decisions, China’s latest stimulus measures, and Larry Ellison’s unprecedented wealth gain. Discover why bond yields are returning to previous levels and what this means for investors.

This week brought disturbing news from the US with the assassination of Charlie Kirk, fresh debate in the UK over tax rumours and economic forecasts, and more evidence that my non-consensual view on UK growth is holding up. In the US, a weaker labour market makes a Fed rate cut next week inevitable, while China continues to roll out stimulus measures.

The British media’s doom-laden narrative is not only unbalanced but risks creating a distorted reality. Let’s look at the facts, not the fear.

Join Jon Adair and Neil Woodford for this week’s W4.0 Weekly Roundup, where they unpack the surge in UK 30-year gilt yields, debunk the so-called “UK hysteria,” explore France’s political and debt crisis, and analyse Nvidia’s latest earnings and what it means for the AI boom.

Debunking the UK’s £51 billion ‘black hole’ myth, plus France’s budget crisis, gilt yields surge and Nvidia’s latest results.

The supposed £51bn “black hole” in the UK’s finances is nothing more than a product of NIESR’s excessively gloomy growth forecasts. The danger lies not in the numbers, but in the media narrative that risks becoming self-fulfilling.

Neil and Jon catch up to dissect the week’s biggest market stories — from stronger-than-expected UK GDP figures and growing pressure for US rate cuts, to DeepSeek’s AI training challenges, Harbour Energy’s North Sea retreat, and why UK wind farms are being paid not to produce nearly 40% of the time.

Geopolitical tensions eased slightly this week, with progress towards US–China trade talks and improved prospects for peace in Ukraine. US inflation data defied predictions of tariff-driven price spikes, boosting the case for a September Fed rate cut. In the UK, stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth puts Britain on track to lead the G7 in H1 2025 — and could render fears of a fiscal “black hole” unfounded.

The media’s uncritical repetition of NIESR’s gloomy £50bn “black hole” forecast risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, undermining confidence and slowing growth. The OBR’s more balanced outlook suggests the deficit is already falling, with a budget surplus possible from 2027/28 — meaning panicked tax hikes are unnecessary. The real danger is talking the economy into stagnation.

I dig into the numbers behind Britain’s growing tax burden, as we lean ever more on a shrinking pool of taxpayers. If you think squeezing the “rich” is the answer, you’ll be interested in reading what the data actually says.

This week, Trump was back in the spotlight with another round of tariff announcements — but markets barely blinked. Meanwhile, the OBR delivered another doomsday forecast, and I took a closer look at the Financial Stability Report. On the corporate side, Wuxi impressed, Zigup made solid progress, and renewable energy stocks rallied on policy clarity. Plenty going on beneath the surface, as always.

The UK tax system is already highly progressive, and the country isn’t getting more unequal, despite what many suggest.

April’s UK labour market data may look confusing at first glance — with employment and unemployment both rising — but the underlying trends point to improving productivity, falling inflation, and a healthier path for the economy.

Nvidia’s CEO just told the UK, to its face, what many of us already knew: we lead the world in research but have failed to build the infrastructure — financial or physical — to turn it into economic success.

Global trade steadies, UK data surprises on the upside, and two undervalued sectors (semiconductors and housebuilders) show clear signs of recovery.

I don’t buy into the idea that Britain is broken beyond repair. This piece is a reflection on oikophobia, decline narratives, and why I think there’s still plenty to be optimistic about—especially if you know where to look.

In a week full of gloomy headlines about public borrowing and tax hikes, the actual data tells a more optimistic story. Yes, April’s borrowing figure was high — but it came in below forecast, and the rise was driven by higher government investment, not out-of-control spending. So no — I’m not joining the gloom.

UK markets have bounced back, the economy looks stronger than the headlines suggest, and the MPC has cut rates — but not by enough.

The UK’s official forecasters are still misreading the economy—and why interest rates must fall faster.

Neil takes aim at the MPC and OBR once again, highlighting their consistently over-pessimistic inflation and growth forecasts. Drawing on the latest March CPI figures and underlying economic data, he argues that the UK’s inflation outlook is improving faster than the official forecasts recognise.

The Chancellor’s Spring Statement was surprisingly upbeat, highlighting better-than-expected growth and lower-than-anticipated borrowing.

Neil Woodford responds to the upcoming Spring Statement and the fiscal reality now facing the government. He argues that stalled growth, rising taxes, and excessive public spending have pushed the UK economy off course—and that the government’s growth narrative is built more on hope than policy.

Another day, another data blunder at the ONS—this time affecting price indices and potentially leading to major revisions in GDP estimates. How much bad data can policymakers rely on before real damage is done?

Neil takes a critical look at the economic policies of the Labour government since their election victory. He argues their agenda—particularly on energy, taxation, and expanding state control—is making economic growth harder, not easier.

The government needs to be honest about the real costs of its decisions. It’s possible to balance defence, energy, and climate priorities without undermining economic growth—but only if we stop pretending trade-offs don’t exist.

The UK’s economic data is broken. The Bank of England and ONS publish figures that are inconsistent, often revised, and fundamentally unreliable. This mismeasurement isn’t just a statistical headache—it leads to bad decisions on interest rates, public spending, and business policy.

Politicians and the media keep pushing a relentlessly negative narrative about the UK economy. But does it match reality? Here's why I remain optimistic despite the challenges ahead.

Amid the doom and gloom surrounding the UK economy, the facts tell a different story. Despite unhelpful messaging from the government and relentless media negativity, I still believe the UK is poised for strong growth in 2025 and 2026.

The UK economy grew by just 0.1% in Q3—or did it? Discover why outdated measurement methods distort the story and what this means for productivity and policymaking.

Reflecting on the UK budget and its limited impact on growth, while looking ahead to a major week for global markets with the US elections, China’s stimulus, and potential UK rate cuts.

Despite political fanfare, the UK budget offers little to shift the economic outlook. With higher taxes and spending but no real impact on growth forecasts, the budget’s medium-term effects are minimal.

As background to today’s much-anticipated budget, I thought I should provide some subjective perspective on some of the key underlying issues that Rachael Reeves will talk about later today.

What’s driving the global economy in 2025? I explore key trends in the US, UK, and China, focusing on inflation, trade tensions, and interest rates. The outlook for the UK may surprise you, but there are still significant challenges on the horizon.

Unpacking the myths around UK gilt yields and government debt. Discover why the budget deficit has no real impact on long-term yields and what truly drives market rates. Inflation, not debt, is the key player.

Recent GDP revisions reveal a £60 billion boost for 2024/5, generating £22 billion more in tax revenue. With the ‘black hole’ in the nation’s finances shrinking, the Chancellor now has room to adjust spending without raising taxes. Find out how this could impact the upcoming budget.

Explore the shortcomings of the Bank of England and OBR’s economic forecasting and their impact on UK monetary policy. This blog compares their approach to the clarity of the US Federal Reserve’s communication, highlighting the need for improvement in UK economic governance.

Explore the UK’s public debt situation, how it grew due to the pandemic and energy crisis, and what its future looks like. This post examines whether the debt is a real constraint on government spending, public services, and economic growth, offering historical and current context to the debate.​

I critique the OBR’s inaccurate economic forecasts and explore how underestimations can result in unexpected tax revenue windfalls. This extra revenue could allow the incoming Labour administration to fund its promises without raising taxes.

The UK economy grew by 0.4% in May, double the expected result. Yet more evidence that the forecast models in use by those overseeing interest rates and fiscal policy are giving them the wrong answers.

In this article we reflect on the outcomes of the 2024 UK General Election, noting the historical peculiarities of UK elections due to the first-past-the-post system

Discussing the apparent disconnect between the UK’s robust economic indicators and the political outcomes expected in today's election.

Why is the UK’s tech sector missing in action on the equity market? Discover the challenges faced by tech companies, why UK innovations thrive abroad, and potential solutions to revitalise the sector.

Yesterday, the ONS published April's GDP growth number. Although the outcome was better than the consensus expected, it has predictably led to a chorus of negative press.

With the General Election date set, many predict a Labour landslide. But history tells a different story. Could we see a surprise in the making?

Challenging the reliance on flawed economic forecasts by institutions like the OBR, which consistently misguides government policy and public opinion. Why do we trust projections that so often miss the mark?

Exploring the UK economy's resilience, this blog challenges the prevalent pessimistic narratives. Highlighting discrepancies in housing market data and questioning gloomy economic forecasts from major institutions, we present evidence that suggests a more optimistic economic outlook than commonly portrayed.

Exploring the impact of UK base rates on economic growth, we reveal how broader financial factors might drive a stronger-than-expected economic performance, regardless of rate changes.

Part 3 of 'Reasons to Be Cheerful' challenges the notion of 'falling living standards' in the UK, examining the realities of wages, housing, and employment. This final instalment offers a robust argument that despite recent hardships, the UK is poised for a promising period of growth, refuting the pervasive economic pessimism with hard evidence and a dose of optimism.

Exploring the often grim narrative surrounding UK public finances, offering a fresh perspective on the country’s indebtedness and how government spending, particularly in response to the COVID pandemic and energy crises, has shaped the fiscal landscape.

Contrary to popular belief, the UK economy has performed well against its peers over the last 15 years, and the ingredients are in place for it to continue to perform well. In this first post, we dispel the myth that the UK is and will continue to be a laggard in the G7.