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Topic · Investment thesis

Britain isn't broken

Neil's running argument that the UK — its economy and its public finances — is consistently misrepresented as a basket case by politicians, the OBR and the press, and that the declinist consensus is empirically wrong.

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Macro

How not to run an economy

Why this government's fiscal incontinence has left it unable to fund defence, and what a real growth revolution would look like.

Neil Woodford · 5 min read
The Show · S2 Ep 2

London Isn't Dying — It's On Sale. Here's Where To Look

UK stocks are being taken private at a record pace: this year, takeover bids for London-listed companies have run at roughly £60bn against under £600m raised in new IPOs, and Neil Woodford argues that this wave of M&A is the clearest sign in years that UK equities are undervalued. In this episode, Woodford and Jon Adair break down why the FTSE and London stock market trade at such a deep discount to the US, what a 75% takeover premium reveals about UK share prices, whether British stocks are cheap or a value trap, and where Woodford sees value across UK banks, oil and housebuilders.

33 min · video + audio · 10 Jul 2026
Macro

A dose of reality

As policymakers warn of doom, the data tells a different story. Neil takes apart the MPC, the IMF and the Chancellor in light of an April inflation print that undercuts the consensus case for caution.

Neil Woodford · 6 min · 26 May 2026
The Weekly

UK inflation hawks are still chasing unicorns

UK inflation has surprised to the downside, gilt spreads have compressed, and Rachel Reeves' food price intervention collapsed within 24 hours. Neil Woodford on why the MPC hawks are wrong and why deflation, not inflation, is the medium-term story.

Neil Woodford · 7 min · 21 May 2026
Macro

UK Economy Briefing: May 2026

Issue one of our new monthly economic briefing from the desk of Neil's favourite economist. UK growth picked up to 0.6% in Q1 2026 and, with the labour market soft and wage pressures easing, in our view Bank Rate is likely to stay at 3.75% and resume a downward path once the energy shock unwinds.

Neil Woodford · 6 min · 19 May 2026
The Show · S1 Ep 37

Why the IMF Is Wrong About Britain (And What To Do About It)

This week the press is unanimous: Britain is uniquely badly positioned, the IMF says so, and the 30-year gilt yield at 5.8% is proof. The Times, the Telegraph and the FT have all run the same story.

36 min · video + audio · 15 May 2026
The Weekly

Labour shenanigans, AI mania and the gilt yield myth

Neil Woodford argues the media's 30-year gilt yield panic doesn't stand up to scrutiny, and that Labour's leadership turmoil will matter little to the UK economy.

Neil Woodford · 7 min · 14 May 2026
Macro

The retail data backs us up — the MPC should be cutting

The sharpest UK retail sales decline in over 40 years has just confirmed what Neil warned about on the podcast: the Bank of England's inflation fears were wrong, and the MPC should be cutting.

Neil Woodford · 2 min · 28 Apr 2026
The Show · S1 Ep 34

Britain's Energy Shock Won't Break the Economy — Here's What Will

Every major UK forecaster — the IMF, Capital Economics, EY Item Club, KPMG — has downgraded Britain's growth for 2026 and blamed the energy shock. Neil Woodford thinks every one of them is wrong. Not about the numbers. About the diagnosis.

36 min · video + audio · 24 Apr 2026
Macro

The optimism index just hit a 50-year low — and it's dead wrong

Forecasters from the IMF to the EY Item Club keep being outpaced by the data. Neil Woodford on why the UK economic outlook is nowhere near as grim as the consensus insists — and why the IPSOS optimism index just hit a fifty-year low anyway.

Neil Woodford · 7 min · 23 Apr 2026
Macro

Peak pessimism: the IMF, the media, and the market's very different view

The S&P 500 hits a new all-time high just three weeks after flirting with a correction, while the IMF pencils in its worst-case scenario. Neil explains why the markets are reading the Gulf war — and the UK economy — more accurately than the forecasters, as Hormuz reopens and a peace deal moves into view.

Neil Woodford · 8 min · 17 Apr 2026
The Show · S1 Ep 32

The Stagflation Panic Is Wrong — Here's What's Really Happening

In five weeks, UK markets went from pricing rate cuts to pricing four rate hikes. The word stagflation is on every front page. But did anything in the underlying economy actually change — or did a five-week war make everyone forget what was already happening?

46 min · video + audio · 10 Apr 2026
The Show · S1 Ep 30

Britain's Energy Policy Is Making You Poorer

The UK has the highest industrial electricity prices in the developed world. British factories pay four times more than American ones. And Britain just banned exploration in the same North Sea basin where Norway is actively drilling.

33 min · video + audio · 27 Mar 2026
The Show · S1 Ep 25

The UK Market Tailwind Almost Nobody Is Pricing In

UK unemployment just hit a five-year high. But hidden in the data is a £1.3 trillion consumer story that the Bank of England, the MPC and consensus economics are completely ignoring. Here's why it matters if you invest in UK stocks.

40 min · video + audio · 20 Feb 2026
The Weekly

Roundup of the week: 20 February 2026

A quiet week by recent standards — but possibly the calm before the storm, with a US strike on Iran looking increasingly likely. Meanwhile, a raft of UK economic data on labour markets, inflation, retail sales and government borrowing all point in the same direction.

Neil Woodford · 6 min · 20 Feb 2026
Macro

The Housing Minister's Housing Problem

The housing minister's interview in the FT reveals a profound lack of understanding of private enterprise, supply and demand, and the real reasons behind Britain's depressed housing market. The facts tell a very different story to the one Matthew Pennycook is selling.

Neil Woodford · 6 min · 10 Feb 2026
The Weekly

Roundup of the week: 6 February 2026

Difficult week, but the factors that matter for UK assets — falling inflation, lower rates ahead, better growth than expected — remain intact. The MPC is an embarrassment, but rates are coming down regardless. US tech valuations will continue to face pressure.

Neil Woodford · 6 min · 6 Feb 2026
The Weekly

Roundup of the week: 30 January 2026

Markets enjoyed a quieter week, but with a US naval force heading towards Iran, the calm may not last. Meanwhile, the consensus remains far too gloomy on UK growth - inflation is heading to 2% in April and yet the MPC will probably find some reason to keep rates at 3.75%. As for the "death of the dollar" headlines? We've heard it all before. Another Corporal Fraser moment.

Neil Woodford · 8 min · 30 Jan 2026
The Weekly

Roundup of the week: 16 January 2026

Geopolitics once again dominated the week, with unrest in Iran, renewed questions over energy supply, and growing concern about political interference in US monetary policy. Despite the noise, the underlying economic data in both the US and UK continues to surprise to the upside, reinforcing the case for lower inflation, falling interest rates, and stronger growth than most forecasters expect in 2026.

Neil Woodford · 8 min · 16 Jan 2026
The Show · S1 Ep 20

103 Economists Are Wrong About The UK (Here's the Data)

In December, Neil published his 2026 outlook, calling for 2% UK growth while the consensus predicted just 1%. This week, the FT polled 103 economists — two-thirds expect even MORE tax rises due to "persistently weak growth."

57 min · video + audio · 9 Jan 2026
Macro

Mental cleansing

A year-end act of economic “letting go”. From productivity myths and phantom fiscal black holes to gloomy forecasters and broken models, this is a reminder of just how wrong the consensus repeatedly was.

Neil Woodford · 5 min · 20 Dec 2025
MacroQ1 / 2026

Global Economic Outlook 2026

Neil Woodford’s 2026 economic outlook: insights on global growth, market trends, and challenges across the US, China, Europe, and the UK.

Neil Woodford · 16 min · 17 Dec 2025
The Show · S1 Ep 19

How to Build a Winning 2026 Investment Strategy

Neil walks through his big calls for 2026: the AI industrial revolution, whether China is really “uninvestable”, why he thinks the EU is still a story of missed opportunities, the hidden fragilities in the US, and why he believes the consensus on the UK remains far too gloomy.

60 min · video + audio · 12 Dec 2025
Macro

UK Budget: Noise, Numbers and What Really Matters for Investors

The headlines painted this Budget as a turning point. I don’t think it is. This piece looks past the political theatre to what the Budget actually means for UK growth, gilts and equities over the next few years.

Neil Woodford · 10 min · 28 Nov 2025
The Weekly

Roundup of the week: 28 November 2025

Markets bounced back this week, the UK budget landed with fewer surprises than expected, and—despite the political theatre—nothing in the Chancellor’s plans alters my upbeat outlook for 2026 and beyond.

Neil Woodford · 11 min · 28 Nov 2025
The Show · S1 Ep 17

The Most Leaked Budget in History: But Will It Work?

Rachel Reeves' second UK Budget as Chancellor might have been the most leaked Budget in history, but will her economic policy and change to taxes actually work? Neil Woodford and I discuss what she actually did, what she could have done and what the impact of her changes will be on the UK economy and the UK stockmarket.

40 min · video + audio · 27 Nov 2025
Macro

Pre-Budget Politics: Lies, Lunacy and a £20bn Mistake

This week’s Budget is being sold on the back of a “black hole” in the public finances, blamed on Tory mismanagement, Brexit, Liz Truss and weak productivity. In reality, the problem is the scale of government spending and a set of fundamentally flawed productivity forecasts from the OBR. Those forecasts are now being used to justify around £20bn of tax rises that were never necessary – and which, in my view, still won’t stop the UK economy from surprising on the upside.

Neil Woodford · 13 min · 24 Nov 2025
The Show · S1 Ep 16

Are We All Doomed or Just Being Misled?

Is AI really a bubble? Is the UK economy broken with a huge “black hole” that forces Rachel Reeves to raise taxes? Is Bitcoin finally dead after the latest crash? In this episode of Noise Cancelling, Neil Woodford takes on the doom-mongers and explains what’s actually going on – and what it means for investors.

40 min · video + audio · 21 Nov 2025
The Weekly

Roundup of the week: 21 November 2025

A weak week for markets, a 30% drop in Bitcoin, and yet more pre-budget chaos in Westminster – but beneath the noise, falling inflation, likely rate cuts and solid corporate news continue to support my positive view on the outlook.

Neil Woodford · 9 min · 21 Nov 2025
Macro

UK Labour Market Data Update

The latest labour market data reveal a weakening jobs picture, falling wage growth and an almost certain December rate cut — all while the ONS’s flawed surveys continue to cloud the true state of the workforce.

Neil Woodford · 2 min · 19 Nov 2025
Macro

Punch and Judy Show

The OBR’s “productivity crisis” is being used to justify tax rises on the basis of numbers that are little more than guesswork, while old-fashioned monetary indicators are quietly signalling that something much more positive is happening in the UK economy.

Neil Woodford · 6 min · 19 Nov 2025
The Weekly

Roundup of the week: 14 November 2025

A messy week for markets and politics: UK data that looks weaker on the surface than it really is, a US shutdown finally ending, France limping through its budget, and more signs that the UK economy is quietly strengthening beneath the headlines.

Neil Woodford · 10 min · 14 Nov 2025
Macro

Brexit: A convenient and popular scapegoat

Brexit remains the favourite excuse for Britain’s problems — but the evidence tells a different story. I argue that the UK’s economic performance since leaving the EU shows no sign of the supposed “Brexit damage” so often cited by politicians and the OBR.

Neil Woodford · 10 min · 12 Nov 2025
The Show · S1 Ep 14

The Chancellor's Big Lie About Britain's Economy

Neil Woodford calls out Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' ‘expectation management’ speech ahead of the UK Budget — arguing that Britain’s economic problems aren’t caused by low taxes, Brexit or Liz Truss’s mini-Budget, but by record government spending. In this week’s episode, Neil dissects every claim from Rachel Reeves and exposes what he calls “the big lie” about Britain’s economy.

37 min · video + audio · 7 Nov 2025
The Weekly

Roundup of the week: 7 November 2025

Markets steady, politics chaotic — from the UK’s pre-budget theatrics to France’s budget turmoil and America’s endless shutdown. Yet beneath the noise, growth momentum is building and company results are quietly reassuring.

Neil Woodford · 9 min · 7 Nov 2025
The Weekly

Roundup of the week: 31 October 2025

Trump’s Asia trip produced a long-awaited truce in the US–China trade conflict — a win for markets and a sign of easing global tension. Meanwhile, UK economic data continues to improve despite pre-budget gloom, with inflation, retail sales, and borrowing figures all beating expectations. The tone of results season remains upbeat, led by strong bank and tech earnings, and confidence is building that rate cuts may soon follow.

Neil Woodford · 8 min · 31 Oct 2025
The Show · S1 Ep 12

Is now the BEST time to buy cheap UK stocks?

Is Brexit really dragging down Britain’s economy and the stock market, or is there more to the story? Valuations in the UK stock market are low so is now the right time to invest?

31 min · video + audio · 24 Oct 2025
The Weekly

Roundup of the week: 24 October 2025

Markets have settled, inflation is easing, and the data continues to confound the pessimists. This week saw better-than-expected figures from the UK, an imminent Fed rate cut in the US, and solid results from the major UK banks. Meanwhile, the media’s obsession with fiscal “black holes” rolls on — but the evidence still doesn’t support it.

Neil Woodford · 5 min · 24 Oct 2025
Macro

Dog with a bone: UK productivity mismeasurement

I’ve said it before, but it bears repeating — the ONS’s productivity data simply doesn’t make sense. According to its latest figures, UK manufacturers are hiring more people to produce less, and the labour market is supposedly booming while productivity stagnates. None of this aligns with reality. The data is broken, yet it remains the foundation for critical economic forecasts and policy decisions.

Neil Woodford · 5 min · 21 Oct 2025
The Show · S1 Ep 11

The Truth About Buying Stocks at High Valuations

Is it better to buy the bubble or miss the boom? Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s major market developments. In this episode, they discuss the implications of high valuations on future returns, the performance of Neil's Top 40 investment strategy, and the significance of accurate productivity data in the UK.

44 min · audio · 17 Oct 2025
The Weekly

Roundup of the week: 10 October 2025

Another turbulent week in global politics and markets — from France’s deepening crisis and the US government shutdown to the ONS’s latest data mishap and the ongoing debate around AI market excesses.

Neil Woodford · 7 min · 10 Oct 2025
Macro

You couldn't make it up

Once again, the data tell a very different story from the one the media insists on repeating. The UK is not “going bust” — it’s growing faster, investing more, and performing far better than the consensus narrative allows. Yet the Chancellor risks basing policy on flawed forecasts from institutions that can’t even measure the present accurately.

Neil Woodford · 13 min · 8 Oct 2025
The Show · S1 Ep 9

Are we in an AI bubble? And will the UK need an IMF bailout?

Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s major market developments. In this episode, is an AI bubble forming? Neil unpacks the hype and reality of AI’s economic impact as well as how he's positioned the W4.0 strategies to benefit from the AI industrial revolution without having to accept ludicrous valuations. We also discuss the likelihood that the UK will need an IMF bailout.

43 min · video + audio · 3 Oct 2025
The Weekly

Roundup of the week: 3 October 2025

The US shutdown rattles politics but not markets, while the UK’s economic revisions expose staggering ONS failings. Company highlights include Card Factory’s dividend hike and Paypoint’s breakthrough deal with Royal Mail.

Neil Woodford · 4 min · 3 Oct 2025
Macro

UK Borrowing: Not the "Grim Reading" you were promised

August’s borrowing data disappointed on the surface, but anomalies in local authority revisions and VAT receipts suggest the picture is far less grim than the headlines. The OBR expects stronger numbers in the second half of the fiscal year.

Neil Woodford · 4 min · 22 Sept 2025
The Show · S1 Ep 7

FED cuts, BOE holds. Tiktok saved? $250Bn to the UK.

In this episode, Neil gives his view on the latest central bank rate decisions from the Fed and the Bank of England. We also cover US-China trade relations, with insights into the implications of TikTok’s deal, NVIDIA’s AI chip restrictions and how US investment in the UK could impact the economy and why caution is still advised despite a promising announcement.

32 min · audio · 19 Sept 2025
Macro

Uneducated educated guesses

The UK’s fiscal debate has been hijacked by flawed forecasts and media scaremongering. Neil argues the OBR’s models are unreliable, the media’s narrative self-defeating, and that real-world evidence points to stronger growth, rising productivity, and no need for further tax hikes.

Neil Woodford · 6 min · 16 Sept 2025
The Show · S1 Ep 6

Pharma Walks Out, Red Tape Gone Mad, Oracle Skyrockets

Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s most significant market stories. In this episode, Neil shares his insights on Merck’s decision to halt its billion-pound research centre in London, central bank rate decisions, China’s latest stimulus measures, and Larry Ellison’s unprecedented wealth gain. Discover why bond yields are returning to previous levels and what this means for investors.

29 min · audio · 12 Sept 2025
The Weekly

Roundup of the week: 12 September 2025

This week brought disturbing news from the US with the assassination of Charlie Kirk, fresh debate in the UK over tax rumours and economic forecasts, and more evidence that my non-consensual view on UK growth is holding up. In the US, a weaker labour market makes a Fed rate cut next week inevitable, while China continues to roll out stimulus measures.

Neil Woodford · 6 min · 12 Sept 2025
Macro

The Self-Loathing Economy

The British media’s doom-laden narrative is not only unbalanced but risks creating a distorted reality. Let’s look at the facts, not the fear.

Neil Woodford · 9 min · 8 Sept 2025
The Show · S1 Ep 4

UK Gilt Yield Hysteria, France in Crisis and Nvidia Earnings

Join Jon Adair and Neil Woodford for this week’s W4.0 Weekly Roundup, where they unpack the surge in UK 30-year gilt yields, debunk the so-called “UK hysteria,” explore France’s political and debt crisis, and analyse Nvidia’s latest earnings and what it means for the AI boom.

23 min · video + audio · 2 Sept 2025
The Weekly

Roundup of the week: 29 August 2025

Debunking the UK’s £51 billion ‘black hole’ myth, plus France’s budget crisis, gilt yields surge and Nvidia’s latest results.

Neil Woodford · 7 min · 29 Aug 2025
Macro

Loose lips sink ships

The supposed £51bn “black hole” in the UK’s finances is nothing more than a product of NIESR’s excessively gloomy growth forecasts. The danger lies not in the numbers, but in the media narrative that risks becoming self-fulfilling.

Neil Woodford · 3 min · 26 Aug 2025
The Show · S1 Ep 2

Strong UK GDP, US Rate Cut Pressure, Wind Farm Madness

Neil and Jon catch up to dissect the week’s biggest market stories — from stronger-than-expected UK GDP figures and growing pressure for US rate cuts, to DeepSeek’s AI training challenges, Harbour Energy’s North Sea retreat, and why UK wind farms are being paid not to produce nearly 40% of the time.

26 min · video + audio · 15 Aug 2025
The Weekly

Roundup of the week: 15 August 2025

Geopolitical tensions eased slightly this week, with progress towards US–China trade talks and improved prospects for peace in Ukraine. US inflation data defied predictions of tariff-driven price spikes, boosting the case for a September Fed rate cut. In the UK, stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth puts Britain on track to lead the G7 in H1 2025 — and could render fears of a fiscal “black hole” unfounded.

Neil Woodford · 8 min · 15 Aug 2025
Macro

Catch 22 – can we escape?

The media’s uncritical repetition of NIESR’s gloomy £50bn “black hole” forecast risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, undermining confidence and slowing growth. The OBR’s more balanced outlook suggests the deficit is already falling, with a budget surplus possible from 2027/28 — meaning panicked tax hikes are unnecessary. The real danger is talking the economy into stagnation.

Neil Woodford · 7 min · 12 Aug 2025
Macro

Theory becomes reality

I dig into the numbers behind Britain’s growing tax burden, as we lean ever more on a shrinking pool of taxpayers. If you think squeezing the “rich” is the answer, you’ll be interested in reading what the data actually says.

Neil Woodford · 6 min · 7 Aug 2025
The Weekly

Roundup of the week: 11 July 2025

This week, Trump was back in the spotlight with another round of tariff announcements — but markets barely blinked. Meanwhile, the OBR delivered another doomsday forecast, and I took a closer look at the Financial Stability Report. On the corporate side, Wuxi impressed, Zigup made solid progress, and renewable energy stocks rallied on policy clarity. Plenty going on beneath the surface, as always.

Neil Woodford · 8 min · 11 Jul 2025
Macro

Inequality Isn’t the Problem

The UK tax system is already highly progressive, and the country isn’t getting more unequal, despite what many suggest.

Neil Woodford · 12 min · 18 Jun 2025
Macro

What a softer UK labour market really tells us

April’s UK labour market data may look confusing at first glance — with employment and unemployment both rising — but the underlying trends point to improving productivity, falling inflation, and a healthier path for the economy.

Neil Woodford · 3 min · 17 Jun 2025
Macro

Britain’s AI paradox

Nvidia’s CEO just told the UK, to its face, what many of us already knew: we lead the world in research but have failed to build the infrastructure — financial or physical — to turn it into economic success.

Neil Woodford · 5 min · 13 Jun 2025
The Weekly

Roundup of the week: 13 June 2025

Global trade steadies, UK data surprises on the upside, and two undervalued sectors (semiconductors and housebuilders) show clear signs of recovery.

Neil Woodford · 7 min · 13 Jun 2025
Macro

Oikophobia and the decline narrative

I don’t buy into the idea that Britain is broken beyond repair. This piece is a reflection on oikophobia, decline narratives, and why I think there’s still plenty to be optimistic about—especially if you know where to look.

Neil Woodford · 3 min · 10 Jun 2025
Macro

Are You Not Cheered Up?

In a week full of gloomy headlines about public borrowing and tax hikes, the actual data tells a more optimistic story. Yes, April’s borrowing figure was high — but it came in below forecast, and the rise was driven by higher government investment, not out-of-control spending. So no — I’m not joining the gloom.

Neil Woodford · 3 min · 23 May 2025
Macro

Market Update - UK

UK markets have bounced back, the economy looks stronger than the headlines suggest, and the MPC has cut rates — but not by enough.

Neil Woodford · 10 min · 9 May 2025
Macro

More bungled forecasts

The UK’s official forecasters are still misreading the economy—and why interest rates must fall faster.

Neil Woodford · 4 min · 25 Apr 2025
Macro

UK Economy update – it’s a ripper!

Neil takes aim at the MPC and OBR once again, highlighting their consistently over-pessimistic inflation and growth forecasts. Drawing on the latest March CPI figures and underlying economic data, he argues that the UK’s inflation outlook is improving faster than the official forecasts recognise.

Neil Woodford · 3 min · 18 Apr 2025
Macro

Spring Statement 2025: Some observations

The Chancellor’s Spring Statement was surprisingly upbeat, highlighting better-than-expected growth and lower-than-anticipated borrowing.

Neil Woodford · 9 min · 31 Mar 2025
Macro

The Queen of wishful thinking

Neil Woodford responds to the upcoming Spring Statement and the fiscal reality now facing the government. He argues that stalled growth, rising taxes, and excessive public spending have pushed the UK economy off course—and that the government’s growth narrative is built more on hope than policy.

Neil Woodford · 7 min · 25 Mar 2025
Macro

Not good enough

Another day, another data blunder at the ONS—this time affecting price indices and potentially leading to major revisions in GDP estimates. How much bad data can policymakers rely on before real damage is done?

Neil Woodford · 2 min · 21 Mar 2025
Macro

Labour's biggest mistakes

Neil takes a critical look at the economic policies of the Labour government since their election victory. He argues their agenda—particularly on energy, taxation, and expanding state control—is making economic growth harder, not easier.

Neil Woodford · 1 min · 11 Mar 2025
Macro

Winners and losers

The government needs to be honest about the real costs of its decisions. It’s possible to balance defence, energy, and climate priorities without undermining economic growth—but only if we stop pretending trade-offs don’t exist.

Neil Woodford · 11 min · 5 Mar 2025
Macro

You can't manage what you can't measure

The UK’s economic data is broken. The Bank of England and ONS publish figures that are inconsistent, often revised, and fundamentally unreliable. This mismeasurement isn’t just a statistical headache—it leads to bad decisions on interest rates, public spending, and business policy.

Neil Woodford · 10 min · 28 Feb 2025
Macro

Taking a risk

Politicians and the media keep pushing a relentlessly negative narrative about the UK economy. But does it match reality? Here's why I remain optimistic despite the challenges ahead.

Neil Woodford · 8 min · 3 Feb 2025
Macro

A Sprinkle of Festive Cheer

Amid the doom and gloom surrounding the UK economy, the facts tell a different story. Despite unhelpful messaging from the government and relentless media negativity, I still believe the UK is poised for strong growth in 2025 and 2026.

Neil Woodford · 5 min · 23 Dec 2024
Macro

Lies, Damned Lies, and Misleading Data

The UK economy grew by just 0.1% in Q3—or did it? Discover why outdated measurement methods distort the story and what this means for productivity and policymaking.

Neil Woodford · 3 min · 20 Nov 2024
Macro

UK Budget Fallout and the Big Week Ahead

Reflecting on the UK budget and its limited impact on growth, while looking ahead to a major week for global markets with the US elections, China’s stimulus, and potential UK rate cuts.

Neil Woodford · 7 min · 2 Nov 2024
Macro

Budget analysis: Much Ado About… Not Much

Despite political fanfare, the UK budget offers little to shift the economic outlook. With higher taxes and spending but no real impact on growth forecasts, the budget’s medium-term effects are minimal.

Neil Woodford · 4 min · 30 Oct 2024
Macro

Pre-Budget perspective

As background to today’s much-anticipated budget, I thought I should provide some subjective perspective on some of the key underlying issues that Rachael Reeves will talk about later today.

Neil Woodford · 3 min · 30 Oct 2024
Macro

Global economic view, October 2024

What’s driving the global economy in 2025? I explore key trends in the US, UK, and China, focusing on inflation, trade tensions, and interest rates. The outlook for the UK may surprise you, but there are still significant challenges on the horizon.

Neil Woodford · 11 min · 23 Oct 2024
Macro

Popular myth massacre

Unpacking the myths around UK gilt yields and government debt. Discover why the budget deficit has no real impact on long-term yields and what truly drives market rates. Inflation, not debt, is the key player.

Neil Woodford · 6 min · 14 Oct 2024
Macro

Boring but important

Recent GDP revisions reveal a £60 billion boost for 2024/5, generating £22 billion more in tax revenue. With the ‘black hole’ in the nation’s finances shrinking, the Chancellor now has room to adjust spending without raising taxes. Find out how this could impact the upcoming budget.

Neil Woodford · 2 min · 9 Oct 2024
Macro

Clarity plays confusion

Explore the shortcomings of the Bank of England and OBR’s economic forecasting and their impact on UK monetary policy. This blog compares their approach to the clarity of the US Federal Reserve’s communication, highlighting the need for improvement in UK economic governance.

Neil Woodford · 4 min · 4 Oct 2024
Macro

UK public debt: a concern?

Explore the UK’s public debt situation, how it grew due to the pandemic and energy crisis, and what its future looks like. This post examines whether the debt is a real constraint on government spending, public services, and economic growth, offering historical and current context to the debate.​

Neil Woodford · 5 min · 30 Sept 2024
Macro

Lucky Labour

I critique the OBR’s inaccurate economic forecasts and explore how underestimations can result in unexpected tax revenue windfalls. This extra revenue could allow the incoming Labour administration to fund its promises without raising taxes.

Neil Woodford · 3 min · 25 Jul 2024
Macro

Red faces?

The UK economy grew by 0.4% in May, double the expected result. Yet more evidence that the forecast models in use by those overseeing interest rates and fiscal policy are giving them the wrong answers.

Neil Woodford · 1 min · 11 Jul 2024
Macro

General Election 2024: Match Report

In this article we reflect on the outcomes of the 2024 UK General Election, noting the historical peculiarities of UK elections due to the first-past-the-post system

Neil Woodford · 2 min · 9 Jul 2024
Macro

It isn't the economy, stupid!

Discussing the apparent disconnect between the UK’s robust economic indicators and the political outcomes expected in today's election.

Neil Woodford · 2 min · 4 Jul 2024
Macro

The UK tech sector – missing in action?

Why is the UK’s tech sector missing in action on the equity market? Discover the challenges faced by tech companies, why UK innovations thrive abroad, and potential solutions to revitalise the sector.

Neil Woodford · 6 min · 1 Jul 2024
Macro

GDP data: here we go again!

Yesterday, the ONS published April's GDP growth number. Although the outcome was better than the consensus expected, it has predictably led to a chorus of negative press.

Neil Woodford · 2 min · 13 Jun 2024
Macro

General Election

With the General Election date set, many predict a Labour landslide. But history tells a different story. Could we see a surprise in the making?

Neil Woodford · 1 min · 29 May 2024
Macro

The OBR: what would Einstein say?

Challenging the reliance on flawed economic forecasts by institutions like the OBR, which consistently misguides government policy and public opinion. Why do we trust projections that so often miss the mark?

Neil Woodford · 5 min · 18 May 2024
Macro

Look behind the spin

Exploring the UK economy's resilience, this blog challenges the prevalent pessimistic narratives. Highlighting discrepancies in housing market data and questioning gloomy economic forecasts from major institutions, we present evidence that suggests a more optimistic economic outlook than commonly portrayed.

Neil Woodford · 3 min · 3 May 2024
Macro

UK base rates: how important are they?

Exploring the impact of UK base rates on economic growth, we reveal how broader financial factors might drive a stronger-than-expected economic performance, regardless of rate changes.

Neil Woodford · 7 min · 29 Apr 2024
Macro

Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3

Part 3 of 'Reasons to Be Cheerful' challenges the notion of 'falling living standards' in the UK, examining the realities of wages, housing, and employment. This final instalment offers a robust argument that despite recent hardships, the UK is poised for a promising period of growth, refuting the pervasive economic pessimism with hard evidence and a dose of optimism.

Neil Woodford · 10 min · 25 Apr 2024
Macro

Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 2

Exploring the often grim narrative surrounding UK public finances, offering a fresh perspective on the country’s indebtedness and how government spending, particularly in response to the COVID pandemic and energy crises, has shaped the fiscal landscape.

Neil Woodford · 3 min · 22 Apr 2024
Macro

Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 1

Contrary to popular belief, the UK economy has performed well against its peers over the last 15 years, and the ingredients are in place for it to continue to perform well. In this first post, we dispel the myth that the UK is and will continue to be a laggard in the G7.

Neil Woodford · 3 min · 17 Apr 2024