# Roundup of the week: 7 November 2025 _Markets steady, politics chaotic — from the UK’s pre-budget theatrics to France’s budget turmoil and America’s endless shutdown. Yet beneath the noise, growth momentum is building and company results are quietly reassuring._ Neil Woodford · 7 November 2025 · 8 min read ![Chancellor Rachel Reeves put the country on notice this week for tax hikes as 'each of us must do our bit'.](https://cdn.sanity.io/images/v3acfbvo/production/c0eb2bf149c055015251e2d155bc58cd482cdc57-4999x3333.jpg?w=1600&fit=max&auto=format) --- **If you think we have missed something you would like to discuss or would like to send in a question for next week's podcast episode,** [**send us an email**](mailto:hello@noisecancelling.co)**.** I keep hoping for a quiet week in which nothing much happens, but, once again, although Donald Trump has chalked up fewer air miles in recent days, there is still much to report on both in the US and in the UK. In Europe, amidst the usual diet of EU gatherings and proclamations, the budget negotiations in France are apparently not going well, with an increasing likelihood of yet another resignation or, failing that, a budget that doesn’t fundamentally address the ballooning deficit and unsustainable debt position. Here are my observations on the other significant political, economic and market goings-on. ## Politics ### US The main political stories this week in the US were the continued government shutdown and the Supreme Court hearing on the validity of President Trump’s tariffs introduced under International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) The shutdown is now the longest in US history, and its impacts are beginning to be felt in more areas of the economy, but in particular in the dearth of economic data. The Fed’s interest rate decision last week was accompanied by warnings that policy decision-making was akin to driving in the fog in the absence of up-to-date economic data. This week, there have been some positive noises about a deal, but as the week has unfolded, the probability of a continued shutdown has increased. As for the Supreme Court hearings, although the President’s team said that they were very happy with the proceedings, other, more independent voices have stated that at least five of the judges expressed scepticism about the government’s broad interpretation of IEEPA. Some analysts are now suggesting that in the New Year, the Court will strike down Trump’s reciprocal and trafficking tariffs. What then happens is not clear. In this scenario, some businesses may be entitled to financial compensation, while others suggest that Trump will be able to maintain existing trade arrangements. In summary, the analysis I have reviewed suggests that, despite the headlines, the persistence of other tariff tools means that the overall structure of US trade policy is unlikely to change, but that negotiations might become more contentious. Interestingly, although both of these events have triggered some negative analysis and commentary, US financial markets have been largely untroubled by these developments. ### UK Although the Chancellor’s unprecedented pre-budget speech was framed as an opportunity to educate the public about the circumstances that have been considered in framing the budget’s measures, it was, in my opinion, an overtly political attempt to manage expectations. My guess is that the general public was rightly not at all interested in what the Chancellor had to say. Of course, the financial media were, but for most people who have, in my opinion, rightly dialled out of this ghastly pre-budget theatre, there was very little interest. I thought it was a disaster both politically and economically. The list of things that Rachael Reeves cited as the cause of her economic discomfort was, frankly, ridiculous. Whilst the real cause, the proverbial giant elephant in the room, which is excessive government spending, didn’t, of course, get a mention. Although I was left disappointed that it appears the Chancellor has succumbed to the OBR’s nonsense downgraded productivity forecasts, and the consequently lower growth expectations, which compound the challenge of excessive public spending, I was not that surprised. The only thing that vaguely interested me about the speech was that it appeared also to be designed to prepare her own backbenchers for some spending restraint, which, from my respect, was more welcome. Having said all this, the ongoing hysterical media reaction to the speech was both amusing and alarming at the same time. Alarming because it is based on absolutely no analysis or data, and funny because it has become so ludicrous. I still maintain that the budget’s measures will not be as draconian as the consensus now believes, and perhaps more importantly, continue to believe that the measures in the budget will have little or no effect on the trajectory of the economy over the remainder of this year and significantly, on my higher growth expectation for next year. Ironically, my bet is that in the budget speech the Chancellor will have to upgrade the OBR’s 1% forecast for this year to the now pretty certain outcome of 1.5%. (Interestingly, today the Bank of England upped its forecast for growth in 2025 from 1.25% to 1.5%) As for next year, I am very confident that growth accelerates to at least 2%, which is once again significantly above the Bank of England’s latest guess of 1.2% and will also be well above the OBR’s forecast too. ### France In France, the budget discussions continue to be torturous in and outside the National Assembly. Currently, it appears increasingly unlikely that a path will emerge through the widely divergent views (apparently involving approximately 2,400 amendments that must be resolved by next Tuesday) from across the multiple parties, each of which wants a say in its eventual outcome. My best guess at the moment is that this will end in another no-confidence vote on the government and a further deepening of the French political crisis. ## Economics ### UK The major event this week was the MPC meeting, which resulted in the decision not to cut interest rates. Although this is what was expected (I was disappointed), the vote was interesting, with four of the nine committee members voting for a cut. The accompanying narrative, however, was encouraging and was interpreted as meaning that a cut in December is a near certainty, with two to three further cuts likely in 2026. Regular readers will be aware that this path to lower rates is key to my more optimistic view on household spending and saving behaviour, as well as economic growth in the UK. Although I was disappointed that we will have to wait a further month for the next cut, this slight delay won’t change my perspective. It’s also worth reminding you that I said at the start of the year that rates would fall in 2025 with a cut in August and November. As it is, I got the second call wrong, but I am confident that rates will fall again in four or so weeks. In other positive news, away from the OBR/Chancellor/Treasury Budget farrago, there was some more data released today that once again highlights the growing momentum in the economy. According to the Halifax (which is probably the most reliable house price data series), October saw the biggest monthly rise in UK house prices since January (0.6%), which leaves the average price at a few quid under £300,000, up 1.9% YOY. ## Markets This has been a busy results week, especially for the companies I follow. For the most part, these were Q3 results and therefore didn’t attract the same level of attention as full-year or interim results. Nevertheless, on the whole, they were generally pretty encouraging. I won’t go into detail here on each set of numbers, but I will comment on the most salient features. ### Sainsbury Sainsbury reported its interim results, which were better than expected. Sales beat forecasts, and the business raised its full-year guidance. It also announced that its bank disposal would result in better-than-expected proceeds, which will be returned to shareholders via a special dividend and an increased share buyback. ### Barratt Redrow Barratt Redrow released its AGM statement along with a trading update. Despite the business’s description of uncertainties related to pre-budget speculation, the group reiterated its guidance for housing completions for the full year (to end June 2026) and added that it was on track to deliver the £100 million of synergies following the integration of Redrow. ### BMW BMW reported its Q3 numbers, which, although bearing the scars of the current challenges the company faces, were in line with expectations. The business also reiterated its guidance for full-year numbers. Later, the business also released surprisingly strong sales data for the first new model (iX3) in its latest generation of EVs (Neue Klasse), which the company stated were ahead of its plan. Although the results were not particularly surprising, the market responded positively to the encouraging EV sales data. ### M&S M&S announced its interim results earlier in the week. This period encompassed the damaging cyberattack that M&S suffered earlier in the year, resulting in significant disruption to the business. The costs related to the disruption ended up being quite a bit less than expected, but perhaps more significantly, the business was not knocked off course and bounced back really well, reflected in strong like-for-like trading, especially in its food business. Fortunately, the business is now back to normal ahead of the busy Christmas trading period. ### M&G M&G, the life assurance and fund management business, announced what it described as “pleasing” Q3 numbers this week. The business maintained positive momentum in the quarter, particularly in its asset management performance, which rose by just under 3% to £365bn. ### Vistry Elsewhere, Vistry, the UK housebuilder, announced a scheduled trading update which encouragingly highlighted building momentum through the second half of the year and unchanged expectations. The business also stated that it saw significant medium-term growth opportunities for its differentiated housebuilding model. This was a reassuring statement after the trading disappointments towards the end of last year. ### Burford Capital Burford Capital, the litigation finance business, announced its Q3 numbers this week. They were somewhat overshadowed by the ongoing legal proceedings in a very high-profile case (YPF matter) in which Burford has purchased the rights to the claims of the plaintiffs (against Argentina). This is a potentially very large settlement and dominates sentiment towards Burford. In so doing, it overshadows the underlying quality and growth of the business. Having said that, the results showed excellent underlying progress in the business, and as for the YPF case, my guess is that the market’s negative reaction to the latest news was an incorrect one. Time will tell. ### Vanquis Vanquis, the sub-prime UK lending business, announced its Q3 trading statement this week. This business is recovering after a series of extremely challenging events which started back in 2018. Under new management, the recovery now appears to be gaining traction, and the trends in the business announced this week look very encouraging. ### Aspen Aerogels Aspen Aerogels announced disappointing Q3 results and lowered its guidance for the full-year outcome. This has been caused by the disappointing developments in the US EV market, which is a key market for Aspen’s thermal barrier business. Following the changing subsidy regime under President Trump and the shift in sentiment in this market, Aspen is now much more focused on the European market, which is growing strongly. Ultimately, when the US market stabilises, it will return to growth; however, in the immediate future, opportunities lie elsewhere. ## What to look out for next week France’s budget war must come to a head on Tuesday, and that will attract some attention. Elsewhere, while the government shutdown continues in the US, the delays to scheduled data releases will persist. In the UK, we have labour market data on Wednesday and GDP data on Thursday, so it’s quite an important week in the lead-up to budget day at the end of the month. Next week, it's slightly quieter for results among the companies I follow, although we will be hearing from Marshalls, Taylor Wimpey, Aviva, and Land Securities in various trading updates.