# Roundup of the week: 9 January 2026 _The year may have changed, but the forces shaping markets haven’t. Geopolitics, the AI industrial revolution and intensifying disinflationary pressures continue to define the outlook for 2026 — despite a consensus that remains too gloomy._ Neil Woodford · 9 January 2026 · 4 min read ![Boston Dynamics unveiled its new Atlas Robot at CES 2026.](https://cdn.sanity.io/images/v3acfbvo/production/a9cf461c4c5b5c12441bb461f55bda8a85f85fff-1440x1017.jpg?w=1600&fit=max&auto=format) --- **If you think we have missed something you would like to discuss or would like to send in a question for next week's podcast episode,** [**send us an email**](mailto:hello@noisecancelling.co)**.** In case you missed it, I published my [2026 global economic outlook](https://www.noisecancelling.co/read/2026-global-economic-outlook) In December. ![Roundup of the week: 9 January 2026](https://cdn.sanity.io/images/v3acfbvo/production/53174904725855ba717f2869ab4146b9a147aae8-1800x1200.jpg?w=1600&fit=max&auto=format) Well, the date has changed, but not much else has. Geo-politics remains a dominant theme in the first week of the new year, and President Trump’s “intervention” in Venezuela plays to a consistent theme we have become more accustomed to through 2025. Financial markets also remain relatively upbeat despite the generally downbeat narrative from most financial market commentators and economists. The ongoing AI industrial revolution continues to dominate the equity market narrative, and, arguably most importantly, disinflationary forces, especially in energy markets, seem to be gathering further momentum and will, in my view, continue to play a key role throughout 2026. ## Politics ### US Last weekend’s events in Venezuela dominated the week. I don’t intend to opine on all of their potential geopolitical implications, not least because, at the moment, in many respects, they are not at all clear. But what I think is relatively transparent is Trump’s motivation to exercise some sort of control over Venezuela’s enormous oil resources. Despite having about 17% of the world’s “proven” reserves, following two decades of mismanagement and economic chaos in the country, its production has fallen to only 1% of global oil output. It seems to me to be a fairly safe assumption that Venezuela’s production will now grow, not immediately, but over a relatively near-term timeframe. My guess is that in an already oversupplied market, this “new” source of supply growth will add to the downward pressure on the oil price. I don’t expect prices to collapse, not least because industry experts appear to believe that US shale production requires a price above $60 a barrel. Still, with both Iran and Russia, for the time being, effectively shut out of global oil markets to a greater or lesser extent, there appears to be no end to the downward structural pressures on the oil market. Downward pressure on energy prices, combined with the disinflationary forces emanating from China and from the AI industrial revolution, in my opinion, is profoundly deflationary. My guess is that central banks will be grappling with inflation below official targets quite soon, and we will all be wondering how low interest rates can go. This is by no means a majority view, but I am becoming more convinced that the global inflationary blip that followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was an anomaly, and that deflationary forces that were the dominant theme before the war will once again preoccupy the minds of central bankers and financial markets across the developed world. ## Economics It’s a little early in the year to be debating new global economic developments, not least because we haven’t yet seen any data. This afternoon, US payroll data will provide the first insight into the health of the US labour market for the new year. My guess is that the weaker trend seen at the end of last year will continue, but I don’t expect any significant downward lurch in the data. Finally, we should not forget to mock all the bears on the US economy. On the 23rd December, when most financial market commentators and economists were tucking into mince pies and getting ready for the holiday, US Q3 GDP data was released. The context here is that, through most of last year, the OECD, IMF, and other so-called leading authorities on the US economy were suggesting that growth would at best be weak, and some even forecast, after Trump’s Liberation Day announcements, that the US economy would go into recession. Well, the outcome in Q3 was growth of 4.3%, which was miles ahead of expectations. What this data highlights is that the so-called experts who continue to be revered in the financial media were, once again, wrong and too pessimistic. Thus far, we haven’t seen any significant UK data, although next week we will get December’s GDP release. My guess is that the outturn for the year as a whole will be close to 1.4%, way ahead of the OBR’s excessively gloomy prognostication in March of 1% growth, but not as good as I had hoped at the start of the year. I remain convinced that growth will accelerate in 2026 and am pretty confident of a 2% outcome for the year. ## Markets As I have already said, global equity and bond markets have started the year in a relatively positive frame of mind. Equity indices are up, and of particular note is the strength of the UK gilt market, where ten-year yields have fallen this week to below 4.4%. One of my most controversial views for 2026, and one that I am becoming increasingly confident in, is the outlook for UK ten-year yields, which I see falling to below 3.5% by year-end. Company-specific news this week includes, once again, better-than-expected revenues at TSMC, which has reignited enthusiasm for semiconductor companies, including Renesas, Infineon, STMicro, and ASML in particular. The CES conference (Consumer Electronics Show) in Las Vegas has also helped generate renewed enthusiasm among some AI-related companies, excitement about the new generation of energy-efficient Nvidia chips, and an outlook for much more capable robots. Away from tech, early Christmas trading statements in the UK have generally been pretty good, and of particular note was M&S’s better-than-expected announcement following its damaging cyber incident earlier in the year and Next, which once again, experienced better-than-expected trading through the Christmas period. ## What to look out for next week. It’s likely to be a busy week, packed full of year-end trading statements from companies across UK, European, and US equity markets. Important macro data next week includes US inflation numbers on Tuesday and UK GDP data on Thursday.