Trade wars: who really pays?

Weekly market and economic commentary covering the US Supreme Court tariff ruling, US-Iran tensions, tech stock volatility, falling UK gilt yields, and the dramatic collapse of Novo Nordisk.

Nvidia just became the world’s first $5 trillion company, but can that kind of dominance really last? In this week’s conversation, Neil Woodford explains why he believes valuation is the financial law of gravity—and why even the strongest markets eventually have to obey it.

Trump’s Asia trip produced a long-awaited truce in the US–China trade conflict — a win for markets and a sign of easing global tension. Meanwhile, UK economic data continues to improve despite pre-budget gloom, with inflation, retail sales, and borrowing figures all beating expectations. The tone of results season remains upbeat, led by strong bank and tech earnings, and confidence is building that rate cuts may soon follow.

In this episode, Neil gives his view on the latest central bank rate decisions from the Fed and the Bank of England. We also cover US-China trade relations, with insights into the implications of TikTok’s deal, NVIDIA’s AI chip restrictions and how US investment in the UK could impact the economy and why caution is still advised despite a promising announcement.

US-China trade talks made real progress this week, with TikTok’s ownership close to settlement and a broader deal in sight. The Fed cut rates, UK inflation stayed calm, and China’s equities continued their sharp recovery. Europe, meanwhile, remains stuck in bureaucratic gridlock.

Geopolitical tensions eased slightly this week, with progress towards US–China trade talks and improved prospects for peace in Ukraine. US inflation data defied predictions of tariff-driven price spikes, boosting the case for a September Fed rate cut. In the UK, stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth puts Britain on track to lead the G7 in H1 2025 — and could render fears of a fiscal “black hole” unfounded.

This week on W4.0, Neil Woodford breaks down the biggest market stories shaping his investment strategies.

This week’s update spans a lot of ground — from Trump’s latest tariff salvo against India and the ongoing debate about their inflationary impact, to a pivotal UK Supreme Court ruling that lifted a cloud over the banking sector. We also look at rate cuts on both sides of the Atlantic, a bidding war for Spectris, a string of strong corporate results, and the extraordinary scale of hyperscaler AI capex plans. As ever, some sectors are buoyant, others are still in recovery — but in both cases, opportunities remain for those willing to look past the headlines.

A week packed with political and economic news, including a major US-EU trade deal struck at Trump’s Turnberry visit, more global tariff action, and signs of growing pressure on UK regulators. Meanwhile, markets welcomed dovish tones from the Fed and a raft of strong company results across banks, biotech, and brickmakers.

A round-up of the week’s key developments across politics, markets, and economics — from Trump’s global tariff deals and Germany’s pro-growth pact to updates from W4.0 portfolio companies like Lloyds, NatWest, STMicro, and Wickes. Plus: a view on UK inflation, US rate cuts, and what to expect next week.

In this week’s update: Trump’s tariff moves on the EU and China, Powell under pressure, and a brewing energy crisis in Germany. Plus: encouraging signs from China’s economy, data centre mega-investments in the US, UK inflation and regulation, and reactions to company updates from BMW, Barratt, ASML, and Ashmore and others.

This week, Trump was back in the spotlight with another round of tariff announcements — but markets barely blinked. Meanwhile, the OBR delivered another doomsday forecast, and I took a closer look at the Financial Stability Report. On the corporate side, Wuxi impressed, Zigup made solid progress, and renewable energy stocks rallied on policy clarity. Plenty going on beneath the surface, as always.

It’s been a noisy, chaotic first half to 2025 — wars, tariffs, stimulus packages, volatile oil, and plenty of political drama.

Global trade steadies, UK data surprises on the upside, and two undervalued sectors (semiconductors and housebuilders) show clear signs of recovery.

Chinese markets are stabilising post-tariffs. Stimulus is underway, trade talks are coming, and key companies in our strategies showed strong results.

US markets are holding up better than expected post-tariffs, but pockets like semiconductors, renewables, and biotech remain deeply undervalued.

Markets and boardrooms panicked after Trump’s tariffs. They shouldn’t have. Lloyds made a pointless provision, while Rolls-Royce stayed the course. Meanwhile, bond yields and energy prices are falling, and the UK housing market is showing real signs of life. Rate cuts are overdue.

Despite the media’s panic, I expect the US economy to hold up well. Early results from semiconductor giants like TSMC and SK Hynix show strength, not collapse — and I think the tariff fears are overdone.

Despite an avalanche of dire forecasts about Trump’s tariffs triggering global recession, I remain a minority voice — and, so far, a correct one. Here's my latest take on the US, China and UK economies.

Trump’s tariff threats are being quietly walked back. Neil Woodford explains why markets overreacted—and what’s likely to happen next.

Markets have swung wildly in recent days — but does the panic reflect reality?

Investors worldwide will be wondering what on earth is going on in financial markets. Trump’s so-called Liberation Day turned out to be anything but.

Neil takes a critical look at Trump’s tariff strategy and its real impact on the U.S. economy. Are fears of a recession justified, or is Trump simply negotiating better trade terms?

Recent market volatility has investors worried about a US recession, blaming Trump’s tariffs and economic policies. But is this hysteria justified?

Trump’s tariffs are being blamed for market weakness—but is that really the cause? Too often, market movements are explained with misplaced certainty. In this post, I break down why investors should be wary of convenient narratives and focus on real fundamentals.