UK housing, housebuilders and the mortgage market.
A calm political week, but not a quiet one for markets: UK house prices stabilising, US profit margins at sixty-year highs, AI already adding a full percentage point to US growth, and global equities — led quietly by the much-maligned FTSE 100 — pushing back towards all-time highs.
Trump’s peace push falters, UK inflation hits 3.8%, stamp duty rumours rattle housing, and US labour data raises Fed cut hopes.
In part two of my mid-year reflections, I look at the UK housing market — why government housebuilding targets are doomed to fail, how stamp duty is choking the market and the wider economy, and why it’s time to cut SDLT and interest rates to unlock growth.
UK housebuilders are out of favour. But that’s exactly when companies often offer the best long-term opportunities.
Markets and boardrooms panicked after Trump’s tariffs. They shouldn’t have. Lloyds made a pointless provision, while Rolls-Royce stayed the course. Meanwhile, bond yields and energy prices are falling, and the UK housing market is showing real signs of life. Rate cuts are overdue.
UK housing market showing real momentum. Strong updates from major UK housebuilders, plus a sharp rise in mortgage lending.
Exploring the UK economy's resilience, this blog challenges the prevalent pessimistic narratives. Highlighting discrepancies in housing market data and questioning gloomy economic forecasts from major institutions, we present evidence that suggests a more optimistic economic outlook than commonly portrayed.
Part 3 of 'Reasons to Be Cheerful' challenges the notion of 'falling living standards' in the UK, examining the realities of wages, housing, and employment. This final instalment offers a robust argument that despite recent hardships, the UK is poised for a promising period of growth, refuting the pervasive economic pessimism with hard evidence and a dose of optimism.
