Macro
How not to run an economy
Why this government's fiscal incontinence has left it unable to fund defence, and what a real growth revolution would look like.
Decision 01
Where to look
Idea generation and the universe — macro, sectors, themes. Where opportunity comes from before anyone has judged it.
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Learn the concepts
Macro
A clean sweep for the Fed, nil points for the ECB
A tale of two central banks. Why the new Fed chair's drive for less communication is the right instinct, and why the ECB's latest rate hike was a mistake its own members are only making worse.
Macro
Headlines, Hysteria and Hormuz
Markets lurched on Persian Gulf escalation, but the real story isn't the war — it's the quality of analysis driving the panic. Bloomberg ran a story about four Bank of England rate rises being "priced in." It disappeared within hours. That tells you everything you need to know.
Macro
Beware of witches
Trump’s tariffs are being blamed for market weakness—but is that really the cause? Too often, market movements are explained with misplaced certainty. In this post, I break down why investors should be wary of convenient narratives and focus on real fundamentals.
Macro
Clarity plays confusion
Explore the shortcomings of the Bank of England and OBR’s economic forecasting and their impact on UK monetary policy. This blog compares their approach to the clarity of the US Federal Reserve’s communication, highlighting the need for improvement in UK economic governance.
Macro
A smooth sea never made a skilled sailor
Wild swings in global markets have left investors reeling. Discover what triggered Japan's record plunge and how to navigate such turmoil by focusing on long-term investment strategies.
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In practice
The Show · S2 Ep 2
London Isn't Dying — It's On Sale. Here's Where To Look
UK stocks are being taken private at a record pace: this year, takeover bids for London-listed companies have run at roughly £60bn against under £600m raised in new IPOs, and Neil Woodford argues that this wave of M&A is the clearest sign in years that UK equities are undervalued. In this episode, Woodford and Jon Adair break down why the FTSE and London stock market trade at such a deep discount to the US, what a 75% takeover premium reveals about UK share prices, whether British stocks are cheap or a value trap, and where Woodford sees value across UK banks, oil and housebuilders.
Macro
Consensus clean bowled – again!
The MPC held rates at 3.75%, but two members still voted to raise them. Neil Woodford on why the data made holding obvious, why the Bank keeps misreading inflation in the same direction, and why the next move is down.
Macro
The energy price shock that wasn't
Central banks and the consensus branded the Iran-war oil spike a 'major energy price shock'. Set against twenty years of prices, I think it's nothing of the sort.
Macro
A demographic landslide
The UN keeps cutting its population forecasts – and the latest fertility data say it still isn't pessimistic enough. We look at why birth rates are collapsing everywhere.
The Show · S1 Ep 40
The Three Forces About to Crush Inflation
Inflation just hit a three-year high, and the consensus has decided the era of cheap is over for good. Neil Woodford thinks that's exactly wrong — and that the inflation in the headlines is mostly one war showing up in the oil price.
The Show · S1 Ep 39
Why Britain Can't Build a Trillion Dollar Giant
This week, a single American memory chip company became worth more than AstraZeneca, HSBC and Shell combined. So why has Britain never built one of its own?
Macro
A dose of reality
As policymakers warn of doom, the data tells a different story. Neil takes apart the MPC, the IMF and the Chancellor in light of an April inflation print that undercuts the consensus case for caution.
Macro
The slow death of the UK equity market
Foreign bidders are picking off UK-listed companies at a decade-high pace, drawn by a valuation discount manufactured by FRS17 and MIFID 2. The consequences for the UK economy are more serious than policymakers seem to grasp.
The Show · S1 Ep 38
The AI IPO Wave Is Coming
SpaceX has filed for IPO. OpenAI and Anthropic are next. The biggest AI listings in history are about to hit US markets — together worth more than the entire FTSE 100. Most of the coverage frames this as confirmation that the AI boom keeps running. Neil Woodford's view is different: the trade may already be more concentrated than investors realise, and where the money flows from here is the question almost nobody is asking.
Macro
UK Economy Briefing: May 2026
Issue one of our new monthly economic briefing from the desk of Neil's favourite economist. UK growth picked up to 0.6% in Q1 2026 and, with the labour market soft and wage pressures easing, in our view Bank Rate is likely to stay at 3.75% and resume a downward path once the energy shock unwinds.
The Show · S1 Ep 37
Why the IMF Is Wrong About Britain (And What To Do About It)
This week the press is unanimous: Britain is uniquely badly positioned, the IMF says so, and the 30-year gilt yield at 5.8% is proof. The Times, the Telegraph and the FT have all run the same story.
The Show · S1 Ep 36
Forget China. Europe Is The Imbalance That Could Drag Britain Down.
Forget China. The biggest economic imbalance in the world right now is between America and Europe. In 2008, the EU was the same size as the US. Today it is 41% smaller.
Macro
The UAE just walked out on OPEC. The real question is what Saudi Arabia does next.
The UAE's departure from OPEC isn't really about prices — it's about whether the cartel's whole operating model survives. The bigger question is what Saudi Arabia does next.
Macro
The retail data backs us up — the MPC should be cutting
The sharpest UK retail sales decline in over 40 years has just confirmed what Neil warned about on the podcast: the Bank of England's inflation fears were wrong, and the MPC should be cutting.
Macro
The optimism index just hit a 50-year low — and it's dead wrong
Forecasters from the IMF to the EY Item Club keep being outpaced by the data. Neil Woodford on why the UK economic outlook is nowhere near as grim as the consensus insists — and why the IPSOS optimism index just hit a fifty-year low anyway.
Macro
The Weapon That Wins Wars?
Why the blockade — not the bombs — is likely to end the Iran war, and why the IMF has mispriced the outcome.
Macro
Peak pessimism: the IMF, the media, and the market's very different view
The S&P 500 hits a new all-time high just three weeks after flirting with a correction, while the IMF pencils in its worst-case scenario. Neil explains why the markets are reading the Gulf war — and the UK economy — more accurately than the forecasters, as Hormuz reopens and a peace deal moves into view.
Macro
Why the Gulf War Bears Are Wrong on Oil and Inflation
Neil Woodford argues the consensus on the Gulf war's economic impact is too bearish — oil at $96 in real terms is far from crisis territory, and UK inflation is set to fall, not spiral.
Macro
The Housing Minister's Housing Problem
The housing minister's interview in the FT reveals a profound lack of understanding of private enterprise, supply and demand, and the real reasons behind Britain's depressed housing market. The facts tell a very different story to the one Matthew Pennycook is selling.
Macro
Mental cleansing
A year-end act of economic “letting go”. From productivity myths and phantom fiscal black holes to gloomy forecasters and broken models, this is a reminder of just how wrong the consensus repeatedly was.
Macro
UK Budget: Noise, Numbers and What Really Matters for Investors
The headlines painted this Budget as a turning point. I don’t think it is. This piece looks past the political theatre to what the Budget actually means for UK growth, gilts and equities over the next few years.
Macro
Pre-Budget Politics: Lies, Lunacy and a £20bn Mistake
This week’s Budget is being sold on the back of a “black hole” in the public finances, blamed on Tory mismanagement, Brexit, Liz Truss and weak productivity. In reality, the problem is the scale of government spending and a set of fundamentally flawed productivity forecasts from the OBR. Those forecasts are now being used to justify around £20bn of tax rises that were never necessary – and which, in my view, still won’t stop the UK economy from surprising on the upside.
Macro
UK Labour Market Data Update
The latest labour market data reveal a weakening jobs picture, falling wage growth and an almost certain December rate cut — all while the ONS’s flawed surveys continue to cloud the true state of the workforce.
Macro
Punch and Judy Show
The OBR’s “productivity crisis” is being used to justify tax rises on the basis of numbers that are little more than guesswork, while old-fashioned monetary indicators are quietly signalling that something much more positive is happening in the UK economy.
Macro
Brexit: A convenient and popular scapegoat
Brexit remains the favourite excuse for Britain’s problems — but the evidence tells a different story. I argue that the UK’s economic performance since leaving the EU shows no sign of the supposed “Brexit damage” so often cited by politicians and the OBR.
Macro
Dog with a bone: UK productivity mismeasurement
I’ve said it before, but it bears repeating — the ONS’s productivity data simply doesn’t make sense. According to its latest figures, UK manufacturers are hiring more people to produce less, and the labour market is supposedly booming while productivity stagnates. None of this aligns with reality. The data is broken, yet it remains the foundation for critical economic forecasts and policy decisions.
Macro
You couldn't make it up
Once again, the data tell a very different story from the one the media insists on repeating. The UK is not “going bust” — it’s growing faster, investing more, and performing far better than the consensus narrative allows. Yet the Chancellor risks basing policy on flawed forecasts from institutions that can’t even measure the present accurately.
Macro
UK Borrowing: Not the "Grim Reading" you were promised
August’s borrowing data disappointed on the surface, but anomalies in local authority revisions and VAT receipts suggest the picture is far less grim than the headlines. The OBR expects stronger numbers in the second half of the fiscal year.
Macro
Uneducated educated guesses
The UK’s fiscal debate has been hijacked by flawed forecasts and media scaremongering. Neil argues the OBR’s models are unreliable, the media’s narrative self-defeating, and that real-world evidence points to stronger growth, rising productivity, and no need for further tax hikes.
Macro
The Self-Loathing Economy
The British media’s doom-laden narrative is not only unbalanced but risks creating a distorted reality. Let’s look at the facts, not the fear.
Macro
Loose lips sink ships
The supposed £51bn “black hole” in the UK’s finances is nothing more than a product of NIESR’s excessively gloomy growth forecasts. The danger lies not in the numbers, but in the media narrative that risks becoming self-fulfilling.
Macro
Catch 22 – can we escape?
The media’s uncritical repetition of NIESR’s gloomy £50bn “black hole” forecast risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, undermining confidence and slowing growth. The OBR’s more balanced outlook suggests the deficit is already falling, with a budget surplus possible from 2027/28 — meaning panicked tax hikes are unnecessary. The real danger is talking the economy into stagnation.
Macro
Theory becomes reality
I dig into the numbers behind Britain’s growing tax burden, as we lean ever more on a shrinking pool of taxpayers. If you think squeezing the “rich” is the answer, you’ll be interested in reading what the data actually says.
Macro
Mid-year musings: the UK housing market
In part two of my mid-year reflections, I look at the UK housing market — why government housebuilding targets are doomed to fail, how stamp duty is choking the market and the wider economy, and why it’s time to cut SDLT and interest rates to unlock growth.
Sector
Mid-year musings: the UK stockmarket
The UK equity market has been in structural decline for years — shrinking listings, no IPOs, and a wave of foreign takeovers. I’ve written about this before, but I wanted to return to the topic and set out clearly why, despite everything, I still believe the UK market is on the cusp of a long-overdue recovery.
Sector
Sector investment case: Banks
UK banks remain structurally undervalued despite solid performance. I explain why I believe the discount persists—and why it might finally be about to close.
Macro
Has the penny dropped on energy prices?
Examining the UK’s new industrial energy policy and questioning whether the government is finally facing up to the hidden costs of its net-zero ambitions.
Macro
Volatility is the price of admission
It’s been a noisy, chaotic first half to 2025 — wars, tariffs, stimulus packages, volatile oil, and plenty of political drama.
Macro
The real cost of transition
In last week’s blog, I wrote about the real drivers of high electricity prices in the UK. Contrary to the official line, it isn’t all about imported gas. The real story lies in the cost of the energy transition — and the vast subsidies and market distortions that come with it.
Macro
Inequality Isn’t the Problem
The UK tax system is already highly progressive, and the country isn’t getting more unequal, despite what many suggest.
Sector
Sector update: Semiconductors
AI demand is soaring. Inventories are clearing. Pricing power is returning. And that’s showing up in the numbers — not just in Nvidia, but in less obvious names like STMicro and TSMC.
Macro
What a softer UK labour market really tells us
April’s UK labour market data may look confusing at first glance — with employment and unemployment both rising — but the underlying trends point to improving productivity, falling inflation, and a healthier path for the economy.
Macro
Britain’s AI paradox
Nvidia’s CEO just told the UK, to its face, what many of us already knew: we lead the world in research but have failed to build the infrastructure — financial or physical — to turn it into economic success.
Macro
Big beautiful (electricity) bill
UK energy bills are soaring—but not for the reasons ministers claim. I dig into the data and uncover the real economic costs of our dash to net zero.
SectorPaid
UK Housebuilders Update
UK housebuilders are out of favour. But that’s exactly when companies often offer the best long-term opportunities.
Macro
Oikophobia and the decline narrative
I don’t buy into the idea that Britain is broken beyond repair. This piece is a reflection on oikophobia, decline narratives, and why I think there’s still plenty to be optimistic about—especially if you know where to look.
Macro
Neil's Mid-Year 2025 Market Update
Neil shares why the headlines don’t tell the full story, what he got right and wrong back in January and where he’s seeing real investment potential right now.
Stock deep dive
BioNTech: Broader appeal
After years of weak performance in the biotech sector, BioNTech has secured a landmark partnership with Bristol Myers Squibb, worth up to $11.1bn. This deal is a major validation of BioNTech’s cancer pipeline and supports Neil’s thesis: the market is undervaluing mature biotech firms. BioNTech was up 20% yesterday on the news.
Macro
Are You Not Cheered Up?
In a week full of gloomy headlines about public borrowing and tax hikes, the actual data tells a more optimistic story. Yes, April’s borrowing figure was high — but it came in below forecast, and the rise was driven by higher government investment, not out-of-control spending. So no — I’m not joining the gloom.
Macro
Inflation Surprise: oops, I got that wrong
April’s inflation number came in higher than I expected — 3.5% year-on-year vs my forecast of 3%. But the detail matters. This isn’t driven by the underlying economy.
Macro
Market Update - China
Chinese markets are stabilising post-tariffs. Stimulus is underway, trade talks are coming, and key companies in our strategies showed strong results.
Macro
Market Update - US
US markets are holding up better than expected post-tariffs, but pockets like semiconductors, renewables, and biotech remain deeply undervalued.
Macro
Market Update - UK
UK markets have bounced back, the economy looks stronger than the headlines suggest, and the MPC has cut rates — but not by enough.
Macro
Panic First, Think Later
Markets and boardrooms panicked after Trump’s tariffs. They shouldn’t have. Lloyds made a pointless provision, while Rolls-Royce stayed the course. Meanwhile, bond yields and energy prices are falling, and the UK housing market is showing real signs of life. Rate cuts are overdue.
Sector
The UK housing market – warming up
UK housing market showing real momentum. Strong updates from major UK housebuilders, plus a sharp rise in mortgage lending.
Macro
US economy contracts… or does it?
The headlines scream contraction, but the underlying data tell a different story. Once again, I believe the consensus has it wrong about the US economy.
Sector
Semiconductors: perception and reality (so far)
Despite the media’s panic, I expect the US economy to hold up well. Early results from semiconductor giants like TSMC and SK Hynix show strength, not collapse — and I think the tariff fears are overdone.
Macro
More bungled forecasts
The UK’s official forecasters are still misreading the economy—and why interest rates must fall faster.
Macro
Tariff tension turning point?
Despite an avalanche of dire forecasts about Trump’s tariffs triggering global recession, I remain a minority voice — and, so far, a correct one. Here's my latest take on the US, China and UK economies.
Macro
UK Economy update – it’s a ripper!
Neil takes aim at the MPC and OBR once again, highlighting their consistently over-pessimistic inflation and growth forecasts. Drawing on the latest March CPI figures and underlying economic data, he argues that the UK’s inflation outlook is improving faster than the official forecasts recognise.
Sector
Sector update: Semiconductors
Today, there is more news in the semiconductor sector that will impact several high-profile stocks in the US and Europe.
Macro
Trump Blinks, Markets Begin to Stabilise
Trump’s tariff threats are being quietly walked back. Neil Woodford explains why markets overreacted—and what’s likely to happen next.
Macro
Don't just do something, sit there
Markets have swung wildly in recent days — but does the panic reflect reality?
Macro
Market Update
Investors worldwide will be wondering what on earth is going on in financial markets. Trump’s so-called Liberation Day turned out to be anything but.
Macro
Spring Statement 2025: Some observations
The Chancellor’s Spring Statement was surprisingly upbeat, highlighting better-than-expected growth and lower-than-anticipated borrowing.
Macro
The Queen of wishful thinking
Neil Woodford responds to the upcoming Spring Statement and the fiscal reality now facing the government. He argues that stalled growth, rising taxes, and excessive public spending have pushed the UK economy off course—and that the government’s growth narrative is built more on hope than policy.
Macro
Not good enough
Another day, another data blunder at the ONS—this time affecting price indices and potentially leading to major revisions in GDP estimates. How much bad data can policymakers rely on before real damage is done?
Macro
Is Trump Pushing America Into a Recession?
Neil takes a critical look at Trump’s tariff strategy and its real impact on the U.S. economy. Are fears of a recession justified, or is Trump simply negotiating better trade terms?
Macro
Calm analysis or hysteria?
Recent market volatility has investors worried about a US recession, blaming Trump’s tariffs and economic policies. But is this hysteria justified?
Macro
Labour's biggest mistakes
Neil takes a critical look at the economic policies of the Labour government since their election victory. He argues their agenda—particularly on energy, taxation, and expanding state control—is making economic growth harder, not easier.
Macro
Winners and losers
The government needs to be honest about the real costs of its decisions. It’s possible to balance defence, energy, and climate priorities without undermining economic growth—but only if we stop pretending trade-offs don’t exist.
Macro
Trump, Ukraine & The Path to Peace
Donald Trump’s recent comments about Ukraine and Zelensky have sparked outrage. But is there a hidden strategy behind them?
Macro
You can't manage what you can't measure
The UK’s economic data is broken. The Bank of England and ONS publish figures that are inconsistent, often revised, and fundamentally unreliable. This mismeasurement isn’t just a statistical headache—it leads to bad decisions on interest rates, public spending, and business policy.
Macro
Not a Trumpet Voluntary
Most investors assume the UK stock market will continue to lag behind the US, but what if that assumption is wrong? With the FTSE 100 already ahead of the S&P 500 this year, could this be the start of a major shift?
Macro
A Dog's Dinner
The Bank of England’s latest rate decision and forecast update was supposed to provide clarity. Instead, it delivered a masterclass in contradiction. The MPC cut rates while simultaneously increasing inflation projections and slashing growth forecasts—none of which add up.
Macro
Taking a risk
Politicians and the media keep pushing a relentlessly negative narrative about the UK economy. But does it match reality? Here's why I remain optimistic despite the challenges ahead.
Theme
AI: Hype or genuine investment opportunity?
AI is being heralded as the fourth industrial revolution, but will it reshape the world like its predecessors, or is it another overhyped trend with unclear profitability? While investors pile into Big Tech, betting on the AI boom, a new development from China is raising uncomfortable questions.
Theme
Well Kept Secrets
I’ve been thinking about how much attention the US equity market gets. While its dominance in global indices is undeniable, could it be causing investors to miss out on other, less obvious opportunities? In this piece, I share my thoughts on what’s being overlooked and why it matters for investors.
Macro
How Did We Get Here?
Trump’s presidency has already sparked dramatic changes—not just in politics but in the corporate world. From free speech to ESG and DEI, this article explores how his election is reshaping global business culture and raising questions about honesty, accountability, and the future of capitalism.
Theme
From ‘Uninvestable’ to Opportunity: Rethinking China’s Market
China’s equity market has faced scepticism, with many branding it “uninvestable” due to economic challenges, regulatory interventions, and declining corporate profits. Yet, recent government stimulus and low valuations signal that this perception might be ripe for re-evaluation. Could China offer untapped opportunities in 2025?
Macro
An ordinary popular delusion
The UK financial media is buzzing with speculation about rising gilt yields, but much of it misses the mark. Contrary to popular narratives, higher borrowing isn’t the culprit. Instead, the real story lies across the Atlantic, in the US Treasury market and Trump’s economic policies. Here’s why this matters for UK markets—and why I believe this will be short-lived.
Macro
A Sprinkle of Festive Cheer
Amid the doom and gloom surrounding the UK economy, the facts tell a different story. Despite unhelpful messaging from the government and relentless media negativity, I still believe the UK is poised for strong growth in 2025 and 2026.
Macro
My global economic outlook for Q1 2025
Since I launched Woodford Views in April, I've shared my thoughts on markets, the economy, and the broader trends shaping our world. With 2025 on the horizon, I wanted to share my views on what I think the key drivers of the global economy and financial markets will be in the first part of next year.
Macro
Does Valuation Still Matter?
History tells us that elevated valuations often lead to lower returns, yet US equities continue to climb. Are we ignoring hard truths about investing, or has the market rewritten the rules?
Sector
Copy Nothing, Risk Everything?
Jaguar’s bold rebrand and shift to an all-electric lineup by 2026 have sparked intrigue and criticism. European carmakers are racing to adapt to EVs, fierce competition, and shifting customer attitudes.
Macro
Lies, Damned Lies, and Misleading Data
The UK economy grew by just 0.1% in Q3—or did it? Discover why outdated measurement methods distort the story and what this means for productivity and policymaking.
Macro
Very interesting times
The US election results are in, and markets are on the move. With Trump back in the White House and a Republican sweep in Congress, we’re seeing big shifts across equities, bonds, and currencies. But are the markets overestimating the inflationary impact of Trump’s policies?
Macro
Trump Wins: Markets React, China Braces
The US election results are in. With Trump’s victory and a Republican-led Senate, what will this new political landscape mean for global growth, inflation, and upcoming central bank decisions?
Macro
UK Budget Fallout and the Big Week Ahead
Reflecting on the UK budget and its limited impact on growth, while looking ahead to a major week for global markets with the US elections, China’s stimulus, and potential UK rate cuts.
Macro
Budget analysis: Much Ado About… Not Much
Despite political fanfare, the UK budget offers little to shift the economic outlook. With higher taxes and spending but no real impact on growth forecasts, the budget’s medium-term effects are minimal.
Macro
Pre-Budget perspective
As background to today’s much-anticipated budget, I thought I should provide some subjective perspective on some of the key underlying issues that Rachael Reeves will talk about later today.
Macro
Global economic view, October 2024
What’s driving the global economy in 2025? I explore key trends in the US, UK, and China, focusing on inflation, trade tensions, and interest rates. The outlook for the UK may surprise you, but there are still significant challenges on the horizon.
Macro
Popular myth massacre
Unpacking the myths around UK gilt yields and government debt. Discover why the budget deficit has no real impact on long-term yields and what truly drives market rates. Inflation, not debt, is the key player.
Macro
Boring but important
Recent GDP revisions reveal a £60 billion boost for 2024/5, generating £22 billion more in tax revenue. With the ‘black hole’ in the nation’s finances shrinking, the Chancellor now has room to adjust spending without raising taxes. Find out how this could impact the upcoming budget.
Macro
UK public debt: a concern?
Explore the UK’s public debt situation, how it grew due to the pandemic and energy crisis, and what its future looks like. This post examines whether the debt is a real constraint on government spending, public services, and economic growth, offering historical and current context to the debate.
Macro
Lucky Labour
I critique the OBR’s inaccurate economic forecasts and explore how underestimations can result in unexpected tax revenue windfalls. This extra revenue could allow the incoming Labour administration to fund its promises without raising taxes.
Macro
Red faces?
The UK economy grew by 0.4% in May, double the expected result. Yet more evidence that the forecast models in use by those overseeing interest rates and fiscal policy are giving them the wrong answers.
Macro
General Election 2024: Match Report
In this article we reflect on the outcomes of the 2024 UK General Election, noting the historical peculiarities of UK elections due to the first-past-the-post system
Macro
It isn't the economy, stupid!
Discussing the apparent disconnect between the UK’s robust economic indicators and the political outcomes expected in today's election.
Macro
The UK tech sector – missing in action?
Why is the UK’s tech sector missing in action on the equity market? Discover the challenges faced by tech companies, why UK innovations thrive abroad, and potential solutions to revitalise the sector.
Macro
GDP data: here we go again!
Yesterday, the ONS published April's GDP growth number. Although the outcome was better than the consensus expected, it has predictably led to a chorus of negative press.
Macro
General Election
With the General Election date set, many predict a Labour landslide. But history tells a different story. Could we see a surprise in the making?
Macro
Is China's rally real?
Is the recent rally in China’s equity markets a signal of robust recovery or just a fleeting reprieve? As we dissect China's complex economic strategies and global interactions, find out what these changes could mean for investors and the broader global market.
Macro
Who's in charge of UK inflation?
Are higher interest rates still the remedy for inflation as they have been in the past? I challenge some deep-seated economic theories, suggesting that what we thought we knew might not hold up under current conditions.
Macro
The OBR: what would Einstein say?
Challenging the reliance on flawed economic forecasts by institutions like the OBR, which consistently misguides government policy and public opinion. Why do we trust projections that so often miss the mark?
Macro
Can the UK equity market recover?
There are reasons for optimism about the UK equity market's recovery. We look at the transition from Defined Benefit to Defined Contribution schemes, increased capital inflows from these pensions, and the potential for valuation adjustments to begin a mean reversion, suggesting that the historically low prices of UK equities might correct to higher, more typical levels.
Macro
A quarter century of damaging reforms
Examining how regulatory reforms over the past 25 years have reshaped and challenged the UK equity market. A crucial read for understanding the deep and lasting effects on capital growth and economic vitality.
Macro
Look behind the spin
Exploring the UK economy's resilience, this blog challenges the prevalent pessimistic narratives. Highlighting discrepancies in housing market data and questioning gloomy economic forecasts from major institutions, we present evidence that suggests a more optimistic economic outlook than commonly portrayed.
Macro
The UK stock market: not damaged goods
This post explores the reasons behind the UK stock market's underperformance over the last decade (or more) and challenges the common belief that economic performance is to blame. We examine deeper causes, such as regulatory and political influences, and show potential for a promising turnaround for UK equities.
Macro
UK base rates: how important are they?
Exploring the impact of UK base rates on economic growth, we reveal how broader financial factors might drive a stronger-than-expected economic performance, regardless of rate changes.
Macro
Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3
Part 3 of 'Reasons to Be Cheerful' challenges the notion of 'falling living standards' in the UK, examining the realities of wages, housing, and employment. This final instalment offers a robust argument that despite recent hardships, the UK is poised for a promising period of growth, refuting the pervasive economic pessimism with hard evidence and a dose of optimism.
Macro
Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 2
Exploring the often grim narrative surrounding UK public finances, offering a fresh perspective on the country’s indebtedness and how government spending, particularly in response to the COVID pandemic and energy crises, has shaped the fiscal landscape.
Macro
Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 1
Contrary to popular belief, the UK economy has performed well against its peers over the last 15 years, and the ingredients are in place for it to continue to perform well. In this first post, we dispel the myth that the UK is and will continue to be a laggard in the G7.