Is it the right price

Neil Woodford has been answering questions about investing for 35 years – and every one of them comes down to seven decisions. In part one of this three-part series, Neil and Jon Adair cover the funnel: the three decisions that take you from every company in the world down to a shortlist worth owning.

At 42 times earnings, the market is priced for a decade in which very little is allowed to go wrong

I owe the great man a debt of gratitude. Throughout my career as an investor, I have learned more from him than from any other writer, commentator, or colleague.

Investment decisions shouldn’t be driven by emotion or FOMO, but by thoughtful analysis and valuation. In this article, I share my approach to evaluating businesses, understanding uncertainty, and finding undervalued opportunities that others might overlook.

UK stocks are being taken private at a record pace: this year, takeover bids for London-listed companies have run at roughly £60bn against under £600m raised in new IPOs, and Neil Woodford argues that this wave of M&A is the clearest sign in years that UK equities are undervalued. In this episode, Woodford and Jon Adair break down why the FTSE and London stock market trade at such a deep discount to the US, what a 75% takeover premium reveals about UK share prices, whether British stocks are cheap or a value trap, and where Woodford sees value across UK banks, oil and housebuilders.

As policymakers warn of doom, the data tells a different story. Neil takes apart the MPC, the IMF and the Chancellor in light of an April inflation print that undercuts the consensus case for caution.

Foreign bidders are picking off UK-listed companies at a decade-high pace, drawn by a valuation discount manufactured by FRS17 and MIFID 2. The consequences for the UK economy are more serious than policymakers seem to grasp.

Issue one of our new monthly economic briefing from the desk of Neil's favourite economist. UK growth picked up to 0.6% in Q1 2026 and, with the labour market soft and wage pressures easing, in our view Bank Rate is likely to stay at 3.75% and resume a downward path once the energy shock unwinds.

The UAE's departure from OPEC isn't really about prices — it's about whether the cartel's whole operating model survives. The bigger question is what Saudi Arabia does next.

Forecasters from the IMF to the EY Item Club keep being outpaced by the data. Neil Woodford on why the UK economic outlook is nowhere near as grim as the consensus insists — and why the IPSOS optimism index just hit a fifty-year low anyway.

Why the blockade — not the bombs — is likely to end the Iran war, and why the IMF has mispriced the outcome.

The S&P 500 hits a new all-time high just three weeks after flirting with a correction, while the IMF pencils in its worst-case scenario. Neil explains why the markets are reading the Gulf war — and the UK economy — more accurately than the forecasters, as Hormuz reopens and a peace deal moves into view.

Why are markets so fragile right now? In this episode, Neil breaks down the one question most investors don’t ask clearly enough: what are you actually paying for when you buy a stock? We go back to first principles on valuation, explain the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio in plain English, and show why the starting valuation often determines your long-run returns.  

UK unemployment just hit a five-year high. But hidden in the data is a £1.3 trillion consumer story that the Bank of England, the MPC and consensus economics are completely ignoring. Here's why it matters if you invest in UK stocks.

This week, Google raised $32 billion in debt in under 24 hours — including a billion-pound, 100-year sterling bond that was nearly ten times oversubscribed. The main buyers? UK pension funds and insurance companies.

$1 trillion wiped from software stocks in weeks. If you own a global tracker, S&P 500, or pension fund, you're probably exposed—here's what you need to know about the AI selloff and what to do next.

In part two of my mid-year reflections, I look at the UK housing market — why government housebuilding targets are doomed to fail, how stamp duty is choking the market and the wider economy, and why it’s time to cut SDLT and interest rates to unlock growth.

The UK equity market has been in structural decline for years — shrinking listings, no IPOs, and a wave of foreign takeovers. I’ve written about this before, but I wanted to return to the topic and set out clearly why, despite everything, I still believe the UK market is on the cusp of a long-overdue recovery.

UK banks remain structurally undervalued despite solid performance. I explain why I believe the discount persists—and why it might finally be about to close.

It’s been a noisy, chaotic first half to 2025 — wars, tariffs, stimulus packages, volatile oil, and plenty of political drama.

AI demand is soaring. Inventories are clearing. Pricing power is returning. And that’s showing up in the numbers — not just in Nvidia, but in less obvious names like STMicro and TSMC.

UK energy bills are soaring—but not for the reasons ministers claim. I dig into the data and uncover the real economic costs of our dash to net zero.

UK housebuilders are out of favour. But that’s exactly when companies often offer the best long-term opportunities.

After years of weak performance in the biotech sector, BioNTech has secured a landmark partnership with Bristol Myers Squibb, worth up to $11.1bn. This deal is a major validation of BioNTech’s cancer pipeline and supports Neil’s thesis: the market is undervaluing mature biotech firms. BioNTech was up 20% yesterday on the news.

Chinese markets are stabilising post-tariffs. Stimulus is underway, trade talks are coming, and key companies in our strategies showed strong results.

US markets are holding up better than expected post-tariffs, but pockets like semiconductors, renewables, and biotech remain deeply undervalued.

UK markets have bounced back, the economy looks stronger than the headlines suggest, and the MPC has cut rates — but not by enough.

Despite the media’s panic, I expect the US economy to hold up well. Early results from semiconductor giants like TSMC and SK Hynix show strength, not collapse — and I think the tariff fears are overdone.

Today, there is more news in the semiconductor sector that will impact several high-profile stocks in the US and Europe.

Investors worldwide will be wondering what on earth is going on in financial markets. Trump’s so-called Liberation Day turned out to be anything but.

Recent market volatility has investors worried about a US recession, blaming Trump’s tariffs and economic policies. But is this hysteria justified?

AI is being heralded as the fourth industrial revolution, but will it reshape the world like its predecessors, or is it another overhyped trend with unclear profitability? While investors pile into Big Tech, betting on the AI boom, a new development from China is raising uncomfortable questions.

I’ve been thinking about how much attention the US equity market gets. While its dominance in global indices is undeniable, could it be causing investors to miss out on other, less obvious opportunities? In this piece, I share my thoughts on what’s being overlooked and why it matters for investors.

China’s equity market has faced scepticism, with many branding it “uninvestable” due to economic challenges, regulatory interventions, and declining corporate profits. Yet, recent government stimulus and low valuations signal that this perception might be ripe for re-evaluation. Could China offer untapped opportunities in 2025?

Since I launched Woodford Views in April, I've shared my thoughts on markets, the economy, and the broader trends shaping our world. With 2025 on the horizon, I wanted to share my views on what I think the key drivers of the global economy and financial markets will be in the first part of next year.

History tells us that elevated valuations often lead to lower returns, yet US equities continue to climb. Are we ignoring hard truths about investing, or has the market rewritten the rules?

What’s driving the global economy in 2025? I explore key trends in the US, UK, and China, focusing on inflation, trade tensions, and interest rates. The outlook for the UK may surprise you, but there are still significant challenges on the horizon.

Is the recent rally in China’s equity markets a signal of robust recovery or just a fleeting reprieve? As we dissect China's complex economic strategies and global interactions, find out what these changes could mean for investors and the broader global market.

There are reasons for optimism about the UK equity market's recovery. We look at the transition from Defined Benefit to Defined Contribution schemes, increased capital inflows from these pensions, and the potential for valuation adjustments to begin a mean reversion, suggesting that the historically low prices of UK equities might correct to higher, more typical levels.

This post explores the reasons behind the UK stock market's underperformance over the last decade (or more) and challenges the common belief that economic performance is to blame. We examine deeper causes, such as regulatory and political influences, and show potential for a promising turnaround for UK equities.

Part 3 of 'Reasons to Be Cheerful' challenges the notion of 'falling living standards' in the UK, examining the realities of wages, housing, and employment. This final instalment offers a robust argument that despite recent hardships, the UK is poised for a promising period of growth, refuting the pervasive economic pessimism with hard evidence and a dose of optimism.