Explainer
Volatility is not risk
Price moves every day. The value of a business moves far less. Confusing the two is, in my view, the most expensive temperament error a long-term investor can make.
Decision 07
How to hold your nerve
Temperament through volatility and drawdown. The decision that decides all the others.
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Learn the concepts
Macro
Headlines, Hysteria and Hormuz
Markets lurched on Persian Gulf escalation, but the real story isn't the war — it's the quality of analysis driving the panic. Bloomberg ran a story about four Bank of England rate rises being "priced in." It disappeared within hours. That tells you everything you need to know.
Explainer
Warren Buffett to step back
I owe the great man a debt of gratitude. Throughout my career as an investor, I have learned more from him than from any other writer, commentator, or colleague.
Macro
Beware of witches
Trump’s tariffs are being blamed for market weakness—but is that really the cause? Too often, market movements are explained with misplaced certainty. In this post, I break down why investors should be wary of convenient narratives and focus on real fundamentals.
Explainer
The art or science of investment decision making
Investment decisions shouldn’t be driven by emotion or FOMO, but by thoughtful analysis and valuation. In this article, I share my approach to evaluating businesses, understanding uncertainty, and finding undervalued opportunities that others might overlook.
Macro
A smooth sea never made a skilled sailor
Wild swings in global markets have left investors reeling. Discover what triggered Japan's record plunge and how to navigate such turmoil by focusing on long-term investment strategies.
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In practice
Macro
A dose of reality
As policymakers warn of doom, the data tells a different story. Neil takes apart the MPC, the IMF and the Chancellor in light of an April inflation print that undercuts the consensus case for caution.
Macro
UK Economy Briefing: May 2026
Issue one of our new monthly economic briefing from the desk of Neil's favourite economist. UK growth picked up to 0.6% in Q1 2026 and, with the labour market soft and wage pressures easing, in our view Bank Rate is likely to stay at 3.75% and resume a downward path once the energy shock unwinds.
Macro
The retail data backs us up — the MPC should be cutting
The sharpest UK retail sales decline in over 40 years has just confirmed what Neil warned about on the podcast: the Bank of England's inflation fears were wrong, and the MPC should be cutting.
Macro
The optimism index just hit a 50-year low — and it's dead wrong
Forecasters from the IMF to the EY Item Club keep being outpaced by the data. Neil Woodford on why the UK economic outlook is nowhere near as grim as the consensus insists — and why the IPSOS optimism index just hit a fifty-year low anyway.
Macro
The Weapon That Wins Wars?
Why the blockade — not the bombs — is likely to end the Iran war, and why the IMF has mispriced the outcome.
Macro
Peak pessimism: the IMF, the media, and the market's very different view
The S&P 500 hits a new all-time high just three weeks after flirting with a correction, while the IMF pencils in its worst-case scenario. Neil explains why the markets are reading the Gulf war — and the UK economy — more accurately than the forecasters, as Hormuz reopens and a peace deal moves into view.
The Show · S1 Ep 32
The Stagflation Panic Is Wrong — Here's What's Really Happening
In five weeks, UK markets went from pricing rate cuts to pricing four rate hikes. The word stagflation is on every front page. But did anything in the underlying economy actually change — or did a five-week war make everyone forget what was already happening?
Macro
Why the Gulf War Bears Are Wrong on Oil and Inflation
Neil Woodford argues the consensus on the Gulf war's economic impact is too bearish — oil at $96 in real terms is far from crisis territory, and UK inflation is set to fall, not spiral.
The Show · S1 Ep 31
Three Ways This War Ends (One Of Them Is Very Bad)
The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Oil is above $100. Trump just told the world to reopen it themselves. Every channel is covering what happened — we're giving you a framework for what happens next.
The Show · S1 Ep 29
Every Oil Shock Is Followed by a Recession. But Not for the Reason You Think
A landmark study by Ben Bernanke — the man who went on to run the Federal Reserve — found that it wasn't oil shocks that caused recessions. It was the interest rate hikes that followed. The central bank's reaction did more damage than the oil shock itself.
The Show · S1 Ep 28
Why Investors Are Selling Their Best Stocks Right Now
UK banks were the best-performing sector on the London Stock Exchange last year. Housebuilders had been climbing since September. Then the rate cut trade reversed in less than two weeks.
The Show · S1 Ep 27
War in Iran — The 5 Principles That Stop You Panic Selling
War has broken out between the US, Israel and Iran. The Dow dropped 600 points on Monday morning. Oil spiked. Gold surged. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. And every investor is asking the same question: what do I do?
The Show · S1 Ep 21
How I'm Investing in 2026 (What If I'm Wrong?)
Neil Woodford predicted Trump's second year would be calmer. But in January alone, Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro has been captured, there's been talk of Greenland and Canada annexation, and Taiwan tensions continue to escalate – he was wrong. Yet his strategies still beat the market. What can we learn from Neil's way of thinking?
Macro
Mental cleansing
A year-end act of economic “letting go”. From productivity myths and phantom fiscal black holes to gloomy forecasters and broken models, this is a reminder of just how wrong the consensus repeatedly was.
Macro
UK Budget: Noise, Numbers and What Really Matters for Investors
The headlines painted this Budget as a turning point. I don’t think it is. This piece looks past the political theatre to what the Budget actually means for UK growth, gilts and equities over the next few years.
Macro
The Self-Loathing Economy
The British media’s doom-laden narrative is not only unbalanced but risks creating a distorted reality. Let’s look at the facts, not the fear.
Sector
Mid-year musings: the UK stockmarket
The UK equity market has been in structural decline for years — shrinking listings, no IPOs, and a wave of foreign takeovers. I’ve written about this before, but I wanted to return to the topic and set out clearly why, despite everything, I still believe the UK market is on the cusp of a long-overdue recovery.
Macro
Has the penny dropped on energy prices?
Examining the UK’s new industrial energy policy and questioning whether the government is finally facing up to the hidden costs of its net-zero ambitions.
Macro
Volatility is the price of admission
It’s been a noisy, chaotic first half to 2025 — wars, tariffs, stimulus packages, volatile oil, and plenty of political drama.
Macro
What a softer UK labour market really tells us
April’s UK labour market data may look confusing at first glance — with employment and unemployment both rising — but the underlying trends point to improving productivity, falling inflation, and a healthier path for the economy.
Macro
Oikophobia and the decline narrative
I don’t buy into the idea that Britain is broken beyond repair. This piece is a reflection on oikophobia, decline narratives, and why I think there’s still plenty to be optimistic about—especially if you know where to look.
Macro
Neil's Mid-Year 2025 Market Update
Neil shares why the headlines don’t tell the full story, what he got right and wrong back in January and where he’s seeing real investment potential right now.
Macro
Are You Not Cheered Up?
In a week full of gloomy headlines about public borrowing and tax hikes, the actual data tells a more optimistic story. Yes, April’s borrowing figure was high — but it came in below forecast, and the rise was driven by higher government investment, not out-of-control spending. So no — I’m not joining the gloom.
Macro
Market Update - China
Chinese markets are stabilising post-tariffs. Stimulus is underway, trade talks are coming, and key companies in our strategies showed strong results.
Macro
Market Update - US
US markets are holding up better than expected post-tariffs, but pockets like semiconductors, renewables, and biotech remain deeply undervalued.
Macro
Market Update - UK
UK markets have bounced back, the economy looks stronger than the headlines suggest, and the MPC has cut rates — but not by enough.
Macro
Panic First, Think Later
Markets and boardrooms panicked after Trump’s tariffs. They shouldn’t have. Lloyds made a pointless provision, while Rolls-Royce stayed the course. Meanwhile, bond yields and energy prices are falling, and the UK housing market is showing real signs of life. Rate cuts are overdue.
Sector
The UK housing market – warming up
UK housing market showing real momentum. Strong updates from major UK housebuilders, plus a sharp rise in mortgage lending.
Stock deep divePaid
Barclays: beating expectations
Barclays’ Q1 results back up what I said — the market’s reaction to the tariffs was overdone. Strong numbers, solid returns, and still well below book.
Sector
Semiconductors: perception and reality (so far)
Despite the media’s panic, I expect the US economy to hold up well. Early results from semiconductor giants like TSMC and SK Hynix show strength, not collapse — and I think the tariff fears are overdone.
Macro
Tariff tension turning point?
Despite an avalanche of dire forecasts about Trump’s tariffs triggering global recession, I remain a minority voice — and, so far, a correct one. Here's my latest take on the US, China and UK economies.
Sector
Sector update: Semiconductors
Today, there is more news in the semiconductor sector that will impact several high-profile stocks in the US and Europe.
Macro
Trump Blinks, Markets Begin to Stabilise
Trump’s tariff threats are being quietly walked back. Neil Woodford explains why markets overreacted—and what’s likely to happen next.
Macro
Don't just do something, sit there
Markets have swung wildly in recent days — but does the panic reflect reality?
Macro
Market Update
Investors worldwide will be wondering what on earth is going on in financial markets. Trump’s so-called Liberation Day turned out to be anything but.
Macro
Is Trump Pushing America Into a Recession?
Neil takes a critical look at Trump’s tariff strategy and its real impact on the U.S. economy. Are fears of a recession justified, or is Trump simply negotiating better trade terms?
Macro
Calm analysis or hysteria?
Recent market volatility has investors worried about a US recession, blaming Trump’s tariffs and economic policies. But is this hysteria justified?
Macro
Not a Trumpet Voluntary
Most investors assume the UK stock market will continue to lag behind the US, but what if that assumption is wrong? With the FTSE 100 already ahead of the S&P 500 this year, could this be the start of a major shift?
Macro
Taking a risk
Politicians and the media keep pushing a relentlessly negative narrative about the UK economy. But does it match reality? Here's why I remain optimistic despite the challenges ahead.
Macro
An ordinary popular delusion
The UK financial media is buzzing with speculation about rising gilt yields, but much of it misses the mark. Contrary to popular narratives, higher borrowing isn’t the culprit. Instead, the real story lies across the Atlantic, in the US Treasury market and Trump’s economic policies. Here’s why this matters for UK markets—and why I believe this will be short-lived.
Introducing Woodford Views
Welcome to Woodford Views' inaugural post. Join me as I share insights from over 35 years in the investment industry, challenging conventional wisdom and exploring the real data behind economic and market trends.